“You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of dif
The Music of the Spheres and the Alchemy of Finance
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Then felt I like some watcher of the skies, When a new planet swims into his ken… so glad I read this. Thanks Ben!
Suppose I discovered the financial analog of a robust new heliocentric model based on information theory. By reflexivity itself, my sharing of this model would make all reasonable people better at catching mice. But then this would seem to distort the model and decrease my ability to catch mice.
So, assuming such a model was possible, why would anyone ever share it?
Mostly asking as a way to better understand Soros. Alchemy of Finance is next up on my reading list, but I don’t have a background in finance and as many have complained, Soros’ writing is a bit dry.
I’d think a similar example is the decreased effectiveness of factor investing since it’s become more popular over the past few decades. (Recovering Boglehead here.)
Price is a very important part of our capitalism originated political universe.
Common knowledge of next-gen predictive tools could change the nature of capital markets’ relationships with society.
Dimensional computer modelling of information fields might graphically demonstrate complex system structures and probable outcomes with an unhelpfully high level of certainty, for our current deep flaws. Perhaps only an army of angels begets a level of competitive advantage so great. Indeed, the act of developing these tools risks the label of pre-crime, by inductive regression.
Sophistry.
It does matter if you have a mouse problem because white cats are easily seen by the mice and catch less. of them. They are objectively inferior at vermin control.