In approaching a problem a Marxist should see the whole as well as the parts. A frog in a well says,
The Dude Abides: China in the Golden Age of Central Bankers
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.
The first part of this is great …the last part things didn’t seem to work out quite that way…when i lived in Shanghai back in the years 2012 - 2015 , we thought that Xi would purge the corruption…that was the Narrative, to use your words…it turned out, he’s just another dictator wannabe…Communists do not know how to make money…but they love money so much, they want to take all that You have !
an anecdote for you about the early Deng years :
"Deng’s first concern after beating the gang of four and consolidating his power was how to get the economy going…
He turned to China’s last remaining Capitalist – Rong Yiren.
Rong’s family – extremely wealthy Shanghainese businessmen in the pre-communist days, had fled in 1949 to HK, Taiwan and the US where they continued their business enterprises.
Rong had stayed behind. He was the last of the major players still in China, all others being either killed or having run away. Rong made a deal with the communists – he would stay in China and run his factories, and share the profits with the communists, a deal which Mao initially agreed to.
Deng asked for advice on rebuilding China.
Rong’s advice ?
Invite overseas Chinese businessmen from HK and Taiwan to invest in China, bring their capital, technical and management knowhow and their marketing connections to China. They would work with China in traditional Asian style, relying on family networks and mutual trust. Investors from other countries would demand a harder contractual framework.
From his connections, Rong had learnt that both in both HK and Taiwan labor costs were rising fast, & the entrepreneurs were already looking at other locations – mostly Asian ‘Tigers’ (remember those?) for relocating their low wage assembly operations. The first thing was to set up a free trade zone where HK and Taiwan investors could open up cheap manufacturing to employ the labor.
That was Shenzhen, then an empty piece of land, on the border of HK.
It was businessmen from Hong Kong who first took the chance and gambled on China. Taiwanese quickly followed.
For much of the Chinese public, traumatized and broke after almost 20 years of horror and starvation, a chance to simply go to honest work and earn some money to eat was already a dream come true of sorts…
Of course, Rong’s family profited handsomely from this….They are the principal Shareholders of CITIC , which always has prime land in every major city of China. CITIC is also a key share-holder in Alibaba. Coincidentally, CITIC’s headquarters in Hong Kong are next to the new HKSAR government buildings on the waterfront……just saying……"