Each of us has a unique story. A story that makes you you. A story that is the engine of your consciousness. A story that is your thread of life.
A story that today can be inferred from your words by generative AI and restored computationally, so that the thread of life remains uncut.
Everything is about to change.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
A Game of Sentiment
PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15830/ I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows…
Render Unto Caesar
There are two sides to the Epsilon Theory coin — looking at market-shaping current events through the lens of game theory and history, and looking…
What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits
The central banks of the West announced today that their temporary swap lines would be made permanent. Like QE itself, the meaning of this emergency…
The Koan of Donald Rumsfeld
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are…
The Levelers
Mr. Incredible: You mean you killed off real heroes so that you could *pretend* to be one? Syndrome: Oh, I’m real. Real enough to defeat you! And…
A ‘Precise and Predictable’ Yellen Fed?
The pursuit of greater predictability and transparency in Fed communications is a mistake, particularly in the context of broad guarantees concerning world-shaking policies. We learned…
A World of Guarantees
“We’re gonna win the game. I guarantee it.” – Joe Namath, 3 days before Super Bowl III “Our torments also may in length of time…
It’s Always Something
More evidence that QE is no longer an emergency government policy, but is now a permanent government program. epsilon-theory-its-always-something-september-29-2013.pdf (508KB)
Uttin’ on the Itz
High hats and arrowed collars, white spats and lots of dollars Spending every dime, for a wonderful time If you’re blue and you don’t know…
Heeere Comes Lucky!
“It is my understanding that the Constitution of the United States allows everybody the free choice between cheesecake and strudel.” – Sky Masterson (“Guys and…
It Was Barzini All Along
“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” – Don Vito Corleone
Same with Emerging Market growth narratives. It was Developed Market monetary policy all along.
Shifting Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence
The strong Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence, which solidified in late September 2012, is now clearly weakening in late August 2013. There are two strands…
The Narrative Shift around Emerging Markets
The core Narrative around Emerging Markets is shifting away from growth and towards value. This is a profoundly disruptive development. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-shift-around-emerging-markets-august-21-2013.pdf (50KB)
Increased Instability in US Markets
The Common Knowledge informational structure around the US market has weakened in recent weeks, making the risk/reward assessment of ALL exposures — long and short…
Schrödinger’s Portfolio
“The world is given to me only once, not one existing and one perceived.” – Erwin Schrödinger “Quantum theory provides us with a striking illustration of…
The Framing of Macro Data
A review of Narrative formation immediately after the July 31st release of Q2 US GDP data. epsilon-theory-the-framing-of-macro-data-july-31-2013.pdf (232Kb)
Rise of the Machines
“Music, this complex and mysterious act, precise as algebra and vague as a dream, this art made out of mathematics and air, is simply the…
The Tao of Portfolio Management
“Shape clay into a vessel; It is the space within that makes it useful. Cut doors and windows for a room; It is the holes…
The Market of Babel
“But Achilles, weeping, quickly slipping away from his companions, sat on the shore of the gray salt sea, and looked out to the wine-dark sea.”…
The Music of the Spheres and the Alchemy of Finance
“You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or…