Each of us has a unique story. A story that makes you you. A story that is the engine of your consciousness. A story that is your thread of life.
A story that today can be inferred from your words by generative AI and restored computationally, so that the thread of life remains uncut.
Everything is about to change.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
Stalking Horse
[Jeremiah and Bear Claw hunt elk] Jeremiah: Wind’s right, but he’ll just run soon as we step out of these trees. Bear Claw: Trick to…
The Red King
“He’s dreaming now,” said Tweedledee, “and what do you think he’s dreaming about?” Alice said, “Nobody can guess that.” “Why, about you!” Tweedledee exclaimed, clapping…
The Donkey of Guizhou
There were no donkeys in Guizhou until an eccentric took one there by boat; but finding no use for it he set it loose in…
The Dude Abides: China in the Golden Age of Central Bankers
Today, however, the Chinese State faces two existential threats, each stemming from or accelerated by the Great Recession and Western policy responses to that crisis of market confidence.
First, QE and other “emergency” Western monetary policies of the past five years threaten the grand political unification of Deng Xiaoping from without.
Second, massive wealth inequality and concentration driven largely by those same monetary policies threaten it from within.
Long Term Parking
And I don’t want to hear about the freaking economy, either! Sil, break it down for ’em. What two businesses have traditionally been recession-proof since time immemorial?
Certain aspects of show business … and our thing.
Risk Analysis in the Golden Age of Central Bankers
When I was a little kid we had a sand box. It was a quicksand box. I was an only child … eventually. – Steven…
The Minsky Moment Meme
That’s not how it works. That’s not how any of this works. – Esurance “Beatrice” commercial There’s a wonderful commercial in heavy rotation on American television,…
When Does the Story Break?
Margaret Bourke-White took this photo of the Garment District in 1930. Every single person on the street is wearing a hat. How did THAT behavior change over time? How did the common knowledge that All Men Wear Hats change?
Answer: the Common Knowledge Game.
Equity Volatility-of-Volatility Falls to All-Time Low
1M implied volatility on the VIX fell to an all-time low last week. Generally speaking, this means that options on short-term market volatility increasing have…
All that Glitters
I’ve received a lot of questions over the past few weeks about Russia and the Ukraine, and why I don’t include this flashpoint in my…
The Risk Trilogy
A trilogy is a pretty abstract notion. You can apply it to almost any three things. – Jonathan Demme Mozart: So then you like it?…
Core Curriculum
I distributed this Epsilon Theory reading list last summer, but it never made it to the website. Given the volume of requests I receive for…
The Business of Epsilon Theory
I started the Epsilon Theory project nine months ago with the publication of a “Manifesto” and an email to a few hundred friends and colleagues.…
The Adaptive Genius of Rigged Markets
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was – Talking Heads, “Once in…
Beta Earthquake
One of the things I like to keep my eye on when I’m puzzling out what’s going on in the market are the specific company…
The King is Dead. Long Live the King.
Le roi est mort, vive le roi! – French proclamation as coffin of old king is placed into burial vault of Saint Denis Basilica. The…
Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World
Apocalypse Now (1979), based on “Heart of Darkness” by Joseph Conrad Kurtz: Did they say why, Willard, why they want to terminate my command? Willard:…
Two Shifting Narratives
Two brief observations on incipient shifts in powerful Narratives … First, China. The pleasant charade that recent currency intervention was nothing more than an effort…
Surely You Can’t Be Serious
The Secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that you’ve got it made. These are my principles, and if you…
Panopticon
The Panopticon: a new mode of obtaining power of mind over mind, in a quantity hitherto without example. – Jeremy Bentham
But the guilty person is only one of the targets of punishment. For punishment is directed above all at others, at all the potentially guilty. – Michel Foucault