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The Four Horsemen of the Great Ravine, Part 1

By Ben Hunt | 17 Comments

Every so often, things fall apart.

In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.

From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.

Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.13.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.06.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.30.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.23.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.16.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



This is an exclusive subscriber-only preview of the first six chapters of Rusty Guinn’s upcoming book Outsourcing Consciousness: How Social Networks are Making Us Lose Our Minds. The book explores how evolution, polarization, and technology are slowly transforming humanity into a hive mind - and what we can and can't do about it.

The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.

Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a Narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.

Amid the Widening Gyre of politics and the black hole of financial markets, the only anchor is us, together, walking with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts. Experience Ben's original 4-part series.

Recent Notes

TLDR: The Projection Racket (Part 2)

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2020

This is a short-form summary of our long-form note The Projection Racket (Part 2), located here. While it attempts to present the most accurate picture…

The Projection Racket, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2020

The Projection Rackets will say that the solution to two-party dominance and the erosion of political self-determination is, like everything else, is to vote. Express yourself! Don’t you believe in democracy?

They are wrong. We, the people, CAN fix this. And if we want it enough, we will.

Why Am I Reading This Now?

By Ben Hunt | September 25, 2020

Yesterday, 5 GOP Senators wrote a letter to Netflix, saying that their plan to adapt Liu Cixin’s “The Three Body Problem” for TV/film amounted to “complicity” with the CCP and their horrific mistreatment of the Uyghurs.

Why am I reading this NOW?

The Welding Shut of the American Mind

By Ben Hunt | September 21, 2020

The closing of the American mind is evolving into its next stage: the welding shut of the American mind.

What’s the difference between closing and welding shut? A closed door can be opened. A welded shut door cannot. We can’t save the minds already lost. We can only prevent our OWN minds from being welded shut.

And we can. Together.

The UNITED States of America

By Ben Hunt | September 19, 2020

My RBG story …

I thought she’d be all about women’s rights and legal theory this and legal theory that. I was SO wrong.

RBG’s death is an enormous loss for the UNITED States of America.

Many People Say

By Ben Hunt | September 16, 2020

The go-to move by sophists like Vox and Trump is to claim that “many people” are asserting their made-up premise that justifies an otherwise ludicrous position.

Why do they do this? Because it works.

Why does it work? Because Common Knowledge game. Because of the power of the crowd watching the crowd.

Office Hours – 9.15.2020

By Rusty Guinn | September 15, 2020

In today’s episode, it’s all about BITFD and the almost hilarious extremes to which The Long Now has infected our financial world. Don’t forget to…

The Projection Racket, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | September 14, 2020

Some of us are uncomfortable with BITFD, and that’s OK. Small-c conservatives should be uncomfortable. Small-l liberals should be uncomfortable.

They should also get on board.

This is a series about why.

Mailbag – Lucifer’s Hammer Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 11, 2020

It’s been a full year since I wrote my last Mailbag note, which is kinda pathetic.

Well, better late than never. Reader comments and emails following our publication of Lucifer’s Hammer have been amazing, and it would be a disservice to the Pack if I didn’t collect some of them here. Enjoy!

Invisible Threads: Matrix Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 9, 2020

I’m not saying that we all have to become volatility traders to survive in the market jungle today, any more than we all have to become game theorists to avoid being the sucker at the Fed’s communication policy table.

But if you’re a traditional investor whose sandbox includes big markets like the S&P 500, then you’re only disadvantaging yourself by ignoring this stuff.

The Game of Tesla

By Ben Hunt | September 3, 2020

Recent price action in Tesla is the Common Knowledge Game in action.

It is the power of the crowd watching the crowd. It is the power of – not what you think is true, and not what you think the crowd thinks is true – but of what the crowd thinks the crowd thinks is true.

The Cartoon Put

By Rusty Guinn | September 1, 2020

Seeing cartoons made from data doesn’t give us license to ignore the underlying feature of the world being measured – it gives us a duty to cut through the abstractions obscuring that feature of the world.

Lucifer’s Hammer

By Ben Hunt | August 31, 2020

There’s a comet speeding our way, a comet of endemic urban violence.

And for so many people – especially young men with the voice of Ego now shouting in their heads as the whispers are turned up to 11 by the amps of political party and social media – they think that post-apocalyptic world sounds just dandy.

Webinar on Security Analysis Narrative Monitor

By Ben Hunt | August 26, 2020

We think we can identify the periods where market participants are primarily focused on either multiples, fundamentals, or technicals in the way they talk and think about investing.

Each of these narrative regimes – multiples-focused, fundamentals-focused, and technicals-focused – generates a powerful signal of subsequent market dispersion (cross-sectional volatility) and subsequent market performance.

Cheesing

By Rusty Guinn | August 26, 2020

In a world awash with cheesing, being lawful good doesn’t mean being lawful stupid.

But for God’s sake, don’t lose your soul in the process.

Sacrifice for Thee, Vast Wealth for Me

By Ben Hunt | August 25, 2020

Doug Parker, American Airlines CEO and Chairman of the Board, wrote a letter to his employees today that pretty much defines high-functioning sociopathy.

I’m going to reprint excerpts from that letter – which is couched in the saccharine vocabulary of modern team-speak, but is in truth a shakedown letter to employees and a ransom note to the US government – and then I’m going to tell you a few things about Doug.

The Fujiwhara Effect

By Rusty Guinn | August 22, 2020

Citizens must be capable of holding multiple ideas in their heads at once.

We can believe that the aims and intents of political powers are not equal while also focusing explicitly on the misuse of the tools of narrative to manipulative the populace by BOTH.

Facebook Delenda Est

By Ben Hunt | August 20, 2020

More than any other company, Facebook is undermining our democracy and our most integral political rights.

More than any other company, Facebook has bought and paid for political cover at the highest levels of American, Indian and European government, political cover that prevents any of the actions we might take as a society to rid ourselves of this cancer.

Facebook delenda est.

Carny Barkers

By Ben Hunt | August 13, 2020

In the age of capital markets as carny show, we are told by barkers like Cramer that this is what a smart investor or management team does … they should look to the grift du jour for their edge.

Can’t Fight This Feeling

By Rusty Guinn | August 12, 2020

No, I don’t think there’s a bubble. No, I don’t think a crash is coming. But when Mark Cuban says this reminds him of 1999 and 2000, he’s right.

And the reason worries me more than either of those things.