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The Four Horsemen of the Great Ravine, Part 1

By Ben Hunt | 17 Comments

Every so often, things fall apart.

In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.

From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.

Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.13.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.06.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.30.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.23.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.16.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



This is an exclusive subscriber-only preview of the first six chapters of Rusty Guinn’s upcoming book Outsourcing Consciousness: How Social Networks are Making Us Lose Our Minds. The book explores how evolution, polarization, and technology are slowly transforming humanity into a hive mind - and what we can and can't do about it.

The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.

Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a Narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.

Amid the Widening Gyre of politics and the black hole of financial markets, the only anchor is us, together, walking with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts. Experience Ben's original 4-part series.

Recent Notes

The Arborist

By Ben Hunt | August 10, 2017

In Part 4 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben identifies how the natural lines of a tree and shaping the tree to follow those lines over time is a lot like shaping a portfolio.

You Still Have Made a Choice: Things that Matter #2

By Rusty Guinn | August 10, 2017

Diversification is clearly one of the things that matter. Unfortunately, most investors pursue the Meme of diversification! instead of the real thing, and end up with a false sense of security and inefficiency.

AI BS Detectors & the Origins of Life (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2017

Confidence levels for the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Claude Berrou on turbo codes and informational neuroscience, and thermodynamics in far-from-equilibrium systems.

Horsepower

By Ben Hunt | August 3, 2017

There is no animal more important to the ascendancy of Western Civilization than the horse, and no invention more important than the horse collar. After all nothing shapes history like advances in productivity. Part 3 of Ben’s Notes from the Field series here.

Programmable Money & Auto Public Offerings (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | August 1, 2017

Programmable money, ImageNet: the data that changed AI research, Auto Public Offerings and the paradox of historical knowledge.

Mailbag! Midsummer 2017 Edition

By Ben Hunt | July 27, 2017

Back by popular demand, it’s the Epsilon Theory Mailbag! Today’s edition covers notes from the past two months including “Tell My Horse”, “Post-Fed Follow-Up”, “Notes…

Whom Fortune Favors: Things that Matter #1, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | July 27, 2017

Part 1 of this note highlighted the supremacy of the risk decision in portfolio construction. In this follow-up, Rusty observes that many investors may be assuming that the natural risk of asset classes is “right” for them.

Algorithmic Complexes, Alpha Male Brains, and Winnie the Pooh (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | July 19, 2017

Massively complex complexes of algorithms, AI vs. human performance, the Alpha male brain switch and explaining vs. understanding.

Where’s the Punch Bowl?

By Ben Hunt | July 19, 2017

On episode 23 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’ve assembled the all-star team — Jeremy Radcliffe (Salient’s President), Rusty Guinn (Salient’s EVP of Asset Management), Neville Crawley (Founder & CEO of Engram Labs) and of course, Dr. Ben Hunt — to discuss whether we are at the inflection point when the proverbial punch bowl is taken away, and, as investors, what we do now.

Gradually and Then Suddenly

By Ben Hunt | July 18, 2017

The question isn’t whether the barge of monetary policy has turned around and embarked on a tightening course — it has — the question is how fast that barge is going to move AND whether or not the market pays more attention to the actual barge movements than what the barge captain says.

One Model to Learn Them All and AI Is/Isn’t Taking Over the World (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | July 14, 2017

One model to learn them all, semantic scholars, AI is/isn’t taking over the world, and autonomous learning investment strategies.

The Goldfinch in Winter

By Ben Hunt | July 14, 2017

Part 2 of Ben’s Notes from the Field series, in which he considers the question: what can a bird teach us about value investing? To everything there is a season.

Notes From the Field

By Ben Hunt | July 7, 2017

What does farming have to do with investing? Quite a lot, actually. In this first of a series that takes on a life of its own, Ben discusses bees and bonds, eggs and ETFs, and more.

President Camacho

Whom Fortune Favors: Things that Matter #1, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | July 6, 2017

Of all the decisions you make as an investor, how much risk you take outweighs all of them. It is more important than costs, more important than diversification, more important than picking the right stock / fund / investment.

Post-Fed
Follow-Up

By Ben Hunt | June 22, 2017

A quick post-Fed follow-up to “Tell My Horse”, the best-received Epsilon Theory note to date (thank you!). I’ll jump right into what I’ve got to say, without the usual 20 pages of movie quotes and the like. Well, I’ve got one quote above, because I can’t help myself. They’re the lyrics to the best break-up song ever, and they’re what Janet Yellen was singing to the market on Wednesday.

AI & Video Games, Tricky Chatbots and More… (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | June 22, 2017

AI and video games, tricky chatbots, the quantum age has officially arrived, and your high dimensional brain.

Does It Fly, Really?

By Ben Hunt | June 16, 2017

On episode 22 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’re in Las Vegas at the 2017 EQDerivatives conference. Both Dr. Ben Hunt and our guest, Devin Anderson, managing director in equity derivative sales at Deutsche Bank, were speakers at the event this year. In a nod to David McCullough’s 2015 book, The Wright Brothers, this episode explores whether the ubiquitous ideas floating around finance today actually have wings and can fly.

Long Short-Term Memory, Algorithms for Social Justice, and External Cognition (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | June 14, 2017

DARPA funds a graph analytics processor, exploring long short-term memory networks, auditing black box predictive models, fast iteration and language from police body cameras.

The Summer Reading List (by Jeremy Radcliffe)

By Ben Hunt | June 12, 2017

In which Jeremy Radcliffe recommends Bob Lefsetz, Scott Galloway, Scott Belsky,Tim Urban and the gang at Hoisington.

Tell My Horse

By Ben Hunt | June 12, 2017

So yeah, I’m overweight and I need to get more sleep. I’m not happy about the market, and I’m anxious about living up to my obligations to my partners and clients. But I wake up every morning thinking independent thoughts about idiosyncratic risks. I’ve got a Tribe. I’m nobody’s horse. And that’s about as good as it gets here in the Hollow Market.