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The Four Horsemen of the Great Ravine, Part 1

By Ben Hunt | 17 Comments

Every so often, things fall apart.

In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.

From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.

Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.13.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.06.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.30.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.23.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.16.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



This is an exclusive subscriber-only preview of the first six chapters of Rusty Guinn’s upcoming book Outsourcing Consciousness: How Social Networks are Making Us Lose Our Minds. The book explores how evolution, polarization, and technology are slowly transforming humanity into a hive mind - and what we can and can't do about it.

The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.

Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a Narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.

Amid the Widening Gyre of politics and the black hole of financial markets, the only anchor is us, together, walking with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts. Experience Ben's original 4-part series.

Recent Notes

Insert XS Pun Here

By Rusty Guinn | November 1, 2018

The iPhone XS launch is attached to the strongest pre- and post-launch narrative of any September launch since the iPhone 6. Does that tell you how to trade it? No. Can it help you think about how different outcomes might shape your thesis – and the thesis you believe other investors are following? Yes.

Why Hope?

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018

It’s easy to feel like we need more than hope to pass through troubling times, and it’s usually true. But sometimes hope is exactly what we need.

Stalking Horse

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2018

A stalking horse is a familiar shape that a hunter hides behind in order to get close to his prey. Once you start looking for them in markets, you will see them EVERYWHERE.

It’s Twue, it’s Twue!

By Rusty Guinn | October 30, 2018

Using facts in your analysis doesn’t make your analysis a fact. Punchy language that leans on these ‘facts’ doesn’t often stand up to scrutiny.

An Ocean of Indifference

By Rusty Guinn | October 29, 2018

Sometimes the absence of a clear central narrative can tell us something about a stock, too.

Oh, hell, Martha, go ahead and burn yourself if you want to.

By Ben Hunt | October 29, 2018

I can’t advise you on the Answers. I won’t advise you on the Answers. But I will advise you on the Process. Because that’s what we do for our fellow pack members.

Innocent Monsters

By Rusty Guinn | October 28, 2018

The paradox of the Widening Gyre is that even when you’re right, you may be wrong.

Getting Out: A Godfather Story

By Ben Hunt | October 27, 2018

“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”

Vito got out. Michael never did.

Things Fall Apart (Part 3)

By Ben Hunt | October 24, 2018

The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They’re major market risks, but you’ll survive.

There’s a Fourth Horseman. And it will change EVERYTHING about investing.

Figaro

By Rusty Guinn | October 23, 2018

In Part 4 of the Three-Body Alpha series, we explore how narrative may shape the tendencies of certain trend-following strategies – and how investors should respond. We also talk Tesla, if you’re into that sort of thing.

They ALL Came in Through the Bathroom Window

By Rusty Guinn | October 23, 2018

When reading news, especially financial news, be vigilant for strings of causality. Most financial events are extremely overdetermined.

O God, Make Me Humble

By Rusty Guinn | October 22, 2018

We have built industry standards around minimizing the appearance of risk. As a result, we now have an epidemic of ability-signaling, when what we really need is humility.

Funding Secured

By Ben Hunt | October 21, 2018

Shifting Common Knowledge on Saudi Arabia has infected the narrative around SoftBank’s Vision Fund, which in turn places unicorn valuations at risk.

The Tells of Fiat News

By Rusty Guinn | October 20, 2018

The mechanics of effective storytelling and the tells of Fiat News are very similar. Add knowledge of them to your news-reading arsenal.

The Grammar of Risk

By Rusty Guinn | October 19, 2018

Take it from a list of terrible pop songs (and one OK, if overrated song from the Doors): lessons that provide an answer instead of a process are usually lessons badly taught and badly learned.

Investment Diligence and the Cornelius Effect

By Rusty Guinn | October 18, 2018

Nobody likes to admit it, but the investment industry hires and invests with the smartest-seeming people that seem sufficiently likable. And it doesn’t work.

Putting the Real Back Into Realpolitik

By Ben Hunt | October 18, 2018

“Order should not have priority over freedom. But the affirmation of freedom should be elevated from a mood to a strategy.” Yes, please.

Saudi Arabia and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | October 16, 2018

An historic night it was. A pleasure to have a private dinner with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, his royal family…

Locusts’ Lament

By Rusty Guinn | October 15, 2018

There is a huge gap in the narrative and language used to describe private equity and hedge funds. Even when it is correct, it calls for caution in our discussions and decision-making.

Why Ben Sasse Loses the Game of You

By Ben Hunt | October 15, 2018

The Ben Sasse Cartoon does not match the Ben Sasse life, and that’s a politically existential problem here in the widening gyre.