Every so often, things fall apart.
In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.
From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
This is an exclusive subscriber-only preview of the first six chapters of Rusty Guinn’s upcoming book Outsourcing Consciousness: How Social Networks are Making Us Lose Our Minds. The book explores how evolution, polarization, and technology are slowly transforming humanity into a hive mind - and what we can and can't do about it.
The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a Narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Men of God in the City of Man
Amid the Widening Gyre of politics and the black hole of financial markets, the only anchor is us, together, walking with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts. Experience Ben's original 4-part series.
Outsourcing Consciousness
The Long Now
Men of God in a City of Man
Things Fall Apart
Recent Notes
Gratitude
To our readers, to our supporters, to our engaged commenters, and to the people who have compared Epsilon Theory to drinking paint, a word: thanks.
The Power of Neg
It’s an old chess saying: “The easiest way to defeat a gambit is to refuse it.”
But that’s just the start of a successful metagame.
Say Uncle!
I don’t know what the Fed should do in December. But I do know how financial media (and Donald Trump) want you to think about what they should do in December.
Hobson’s Choice
“What do you mean you don’t make side orders of toast? You make sandwiches, don’t you?”
Bobby thinks he has lots of choices, but really he only has one.
We’re all Bobby today.
Things Fall Apart (Part 4)
Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.
How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.
That’s Just Putting On a Nice Sweater
When something becomes as necessary, accepted and right-sounding as ‘process’, it can be tough to tell the difference between the Cartoon and the genuine article.
You Had A Stamp Collection?
A quick note on no-coiners, people (like me) who have never owned Bitcoin, but have just watched from afar. We’re being played. Not to buy Bitcoin, but to obey the logic of the flock.
When That Fire Hits
Our brains’ responses to memes are mostly existential – fight or flight. We can’t turn off these responses. But we can train our behavior to question them.
The Sicilian Offense
I don’t know that any investor’s mean expectation for Amazon ought to have moved an inch. But should a poorly played metagame change investors’ probabilistic outlook? I think so.
I Know Why the Caged Bird Speaks
In the construction of Fiat News, it’s the choice of facts and the choice of words that preserve the power to make us feel. Because that’s the only thing that really matters – how do the words make you FEEL?
Foundation and Empire
How can US household net worth continue to outpace US economic growth if the Fed won’t play ball with easy monetary policy? History shows another way to keep the party going
The Fiat News Index
Common criticisms of the news media tend to focus on bias. But when it comes to learning to resist the unavoidable influence of narrative and Meme on our brains, our focus should be on how much we allow others to explain things to us. We’re working on tools to allow citizens to do exactly that.
Infrastructure Week!
There’s a dog that didn’t bark in the midterm campaign. And its silence tells me a lot about where this country is going.
Hey, Maybe It’s the Needle
A good model isn’t just right. A good model has to be relevant. And in a world of abstraction and narrative, engaging in relevant ways demands much more of us.
Draft Day
We are wired to associate outcomes with the biggest single visible variance. This is a process-breaking flaw for general managers and portfolio managers alike.
ET In the News: Midterm Election Edition
A round-up of the most representative stories about the midterm elections between 9/30/2018 and 11/5/2018.
The Madame Bovary Effect
One way or another, boredom must be eliminated. It’s as much an iron law of markets as the impact of greed and fear. And it’s just as powerful.
You Are What Your Record Says You Are
It’s the defining quote for any performance-based social system, whether it’s football, politics, or markets. So let me ask you this: who owns your record?
Kings Unwilling
Humility is in short supply on Wall Street. But the humility! meme is not. Developing a process to understand the difference is important for any asset allocator.
Announcing Epsilon Theory Live
Ben and I are pleased to announce the launch of Epsilon Theory Live – our audio/visual supplement to the existing written Epsilon Theory content! Epsilon…