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The Four Horsemen of the Great Ravine, Part 1

By Ben Hunt | 17 Comments

Every so often, things fall apart.

In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.

From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.

Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.13.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.06.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.30.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.23.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.16.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



This is an exclusive subscriber-only preview of the first six chapters of Rusty Guinn’s upcoming book Outsourcing Consciousness: How Social Networks are Making Us Lose Our Minds. The book explores how evolution, polarization, and technology are slowly transforming humanity into a hive mind - and what we can and can't do about it.

The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.

Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a Narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.

Amid the Widening Gyre of politics and the black hole of financial markets, the only anchor is us, together, walking with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts. Experience Ben's original 4-part series.

Recent Notes

Biden in June: Popular but Disconnected

By Rusty Guinn | June 11, 2019

Some few months into primary season, Joe Biden is the Democratic front-runner. But his narrative isn’t – it remains distinct from the issues that appear to be defining the written and spoken dialogue about the election. Above all, it remains distinctly negative. Will the left-pivot gambit pay off?

Are You Now, or Have You Ever Been Pro-China?

By Ben Hunt | June 10, 2019

Bannon and the rest of the America First brigade (which includes a LOT of bedfellows you see all the time on CNBC, like Kyle Bass) are going full-McCarthy. They’re going to have a “list”. They’re going to accuse anyone and everyone of “treason”.

It’s part and parcel of the China narrative transformation that Rusty and I have been talking about for a month now: the US-China narrative is now a national security narrative, not an economic trade narrative, and you can’t walk that narrative back until after the 2020 election.

Sucker.

By Ben Hunt | June 10, 2019

Certificate programs like “Impact Investing for the Next Generation”, a course offered by Harvard’s Kennedy School and the World Economic Forum (yes, the Davos guys), are a great way to fleece the suckers. And by suckers I mean rich Asians.

I know of which I speak. Because I used to do the fleecing.

The Weekend Zeitgeist – 6.9.2019

By Rusty Guinn | June 9, 2019

It’s the Weekend Zeitgeist, in which a lovely sentiment is enough to convince us to include a soccer piece, a thoughtful observation on symbols is enough to convince us to include a Gawker piece, and language colors what we treat as acceptable political views.

The Existential Narrative

By Ben Hunt | June 7, 2019

Any shift in the Trade narrative away from economic issues and toward national security issues is highly problematic for a market-friendly resolution in US-China negotiations. Why? Because the political stakes are much higher for both Trump and Xi in a national security game of Chicken than they are in an economic game of Chicken. It is much easier to be “the chicken” in an economic game and claim some sort of face-saving feature than in an national security game, so the latter is almost always a protracted affair of brinksmanship and high stress.

It’s happening.

Send Lawyers, Guns and Money

By Ben Hunt | June 7, 2019

Nancy Pelosi’s chief of staff is now Facebook’s chief lobbyist. Big Tech just gave the Internet Freedom Award to Ivanka Trump. The head of the antitrust division of the Justice Dept. is a former Google lobbyist.

They’re. Not. Even. Pretending. Anymore.

truth and Truth

By Rusty Guinn | June 7, 2019

Great Truths can be important engines for social unity and shared identity. In the hands of some, however, they can become tools for obscuring actual truth – facts – in service of cynical use of the emotional memes attached to those Truths.

Superstorm Powell

By Ben Hunt | June 6, 2019

The narratives of Central Bank Omnipotence and Trade & Tariffs have merged into a superstorm.

We are tracking its movement across the map of narrative-world, and as you might expect … it packs a punch.

The ET Election Index – May 2019

By Rusty Guinn | June 6, 2019

This is the second installment of Epsilon Theory’s new monthly feature – the ET Election Index. Our aim with the feature is to lay as bare as possible the popular narratives governing the US elections in 2020. That includes narratives concerning policy proposals and candidates found in the news, opinion and feature content produced by national, local and smaller outlets.

Whatever It Takes

By Ben Hunt | June 4, 2019

It’s the truest thing I know about the State: what begins as emergency government action ALWAYS becomes permanent government policy.

So now here we are, where “whatever it takes” has morphed from saving the entire European project to … [checks notes] … preventing a garden-variety recession.

A Zeitgeist Portfolio

By Ben Hunt | June 4, 2019

In today’s narrative-connected news, New Mexico makes a major shift in their portfolio allocation, away from broad equity indices and core fixed income, and towards real assets.

It’s a very Zeitgeist-aware portfolio shift, and boldly done. I love it!

Office Hours – 6.4.2019

By Rusty Guinn | June 4, 2019

Ben and Rusty update subscribers on the shift from cooperative to competitive games and our narrative research program, with a focus on the China Trade War and US electoral politics.

The Weekend Zeitgeist – 6.2.2019

By Rusty Guinn | June 2, 2019

It’s the Weekend Zeitgeist! In which we get a flood of flood coverage, everybody is a contrarian, Bloomberg covers abortion, Time magazine does Time magazine things and Raleigh invites an unexpected guest or two to the 2019 Zeitgeist.

Fellow Contrarians Unite!

By Rusty Guinn | June 1, 2019

We spend a lot of time on our trade ideas, and do a lot of hand-waving at what we believe that everyone else believes. It’s a core problem for investors, and one that can’t be avoided.

Space for Rent

By Ben Hunt | May 31, 2019

The pecking order is a social system designed to preserve economic inequality: inequality of food for chickens, inequality of wealth for humans. We are trained and told by Team Elite that the pecking order is not a real and brutal thing in the human species, but this is a lie.

On Tilt

By Ben Hunt | May 31, 2019

It’s like he’s a drunk dentist in Vegas for a convention, sitting down at the poker table and getting bored after three hands. So he decides that he can “impose his will” on the table by opening up out of position with rags and making a continuation bet all the way through the river. Like everyone else at the table doesn’t see him for EXACTLY who he is.

Citizen Trump / Citizen Xi

By Ben Hunt | May 30, 2019

This isn’t a US thing. This isn’t a China thing. This isn’t a Trump thing. This isn’t a Xi thing.

This is a social animal thing.

The words are not lies. The words are not wrong. The conflict may be just.

But you are being played nonetheless.

B3 Debt is the New Black

By Ben Hunt | May 30, 2019

I’m not sure that people who aren’t immersed in this world realize how crappy B3 debt is. Or how much of it is getting pushed into the market.

THIS is financialization.

Red Dawn

By Ben Hunt | May 30, 2019

How will you know that the US-China trade narrative is shifting towards a protracted game of Chicken?

When the narrative becomes dominated by national security language and clusters.

Rusty and I have been all over this for a year. More to the point, we have been right. If you want to know what’s happening with the Trade & Tariff narrative structure, you should subscribe to ET Professional. This is what we DO.

Spree

By Ben Hunt | May 28, 2019

The word “spree” is so evocative in narrative-world, implying at a minimum some sort of wantonness and excess, some sort of moral bankruptcy.

How threadbare and slow-growing is the financial services world today? It’s a “hiring spree” just to open up a New York office. With 30 people. By 2022.