Every so often, things fall apart.
In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.
From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
This is an exclusive subscriber-only preview of the first six chapters of Rusty Guinn’s upcoming book Outsourcing Consciousness: How Social Networks are Making Us Lose Our Minds. The book explores how evolution, polarization, and technology are slowly transforming humanity into a hive mind - and what we can and can't do about it.
The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a Narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Men of God in the City of Man
Amid the Widening Gyre of politics and the black hole of financial markets, the only anchor is us, together, walking with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts. Experience Ben's original 4-part series.
Outsourcing Consciousness
The Long Now
Men of God in a City of Man
Things Fall Apart
Recent Notes
Food Innovation Meets Financial Innovation
Markets are boring. Hey, what if we securitized wokeness?
The World ‘Twixt Ought To and Is
Honest investing means finding a balance between approaches which imply we know everything and those which imply we can’t know anything. It means humility.
We think there are three – and only three – paths to finding this balance. One is the heart of what we are trying to achieve with Epsilon Theory.
Frauds and Traitors
Throwing words like “Fraud!” and “Traitor!” around so casually … it doesn’t reveal the true frauds and the true traitors.
It makes it easier for them to hide.
When Potato Salad Goes Bad
On Tuesday, the Macy’s narrative was “I think they can make their comps.”
On Wednesday, the Macy’s narrative was “I think they can cover their dividend.”
This is what it means for a narrative to go bad. This is what it means for a story to break.
And when a story breaks, so does the stock. Not just for a little while, but for a loooong time.
Just ask GE.
ET Election Index: July 31, 2019
This is the fourth installment of Epsilon Theory’s Election Index. Our aim with the feature is to lay as bare as possible the popular narratives…
Does It Make a Sound?
Wherever self-determination and resistance to the encroaching power of the state and oligarchical institutions find expression, there should our full hearts be also.
And our full voices.
I’m a Superstitious Man
“I’m a superstitious man, and if some unlucky accident should befall him — if he should get shot in the head by a police officer, or if he should hang himself in his jail cell, or if he’s struck by a bolt of lightning — then I’m going to blame some of the people in this room.” – Vito Corleone
Same.
The Nudging State and the Nudging Oligarchy cannot be defeated on a single point of failure like Jeffrey Epstein’s testimony at trial. Or like the bankruptcy of AIG.
But a million effin’ points of failure? A refusal to vote for ridiculous candidates and buy ridiculous securities? A refusal AT SCALE?
Yeah, that can work.
The Country HOA and other Control Stories
There are some stories that we will want to believe no matter how much contrary evidence we find, and no matter how much we know that the story is bogus. And when these stories convey a sense of control? All bets are off.
A Cartoon in Three Parts
Cartoons are not evil. And yet they are the engine behind the Long Now, and very much at the center of our financial Zeitgeist. What is a clear eyed, full-hearted investor and citizen to do?
The Last Chance
You want scarcity? Access to the upper echelons of high society? Well, say no more. It’s your very last chance to buy this most special, most fantastical, most legendary, most unattainable of whiskies.
Are You Sweet Talking Me?
It’s my favorite part of any Batman movie … that scene where the henchman pays a visit to the crazed supervillain – the Joker is the gold standard here – and you just know that the meeting is about to go terribly, terribly awry for the thug.
It’s a funny scene in a movie.
It’s a crappy way to run a country.
The Donkey of Guizhou
My point in relating the fable of the Donkey of Guizhou is not that I believe China is the tiger and the United States is the donkey in our current trade-war-going-to-currency-war.
My point in relating the fable of the Donkey of Guizhou is not that I believe the current United States president is a braying donkey in his “easy to win” trade-war-going-to-currency-war.
I mean … I do, but that’s not my point.
My point is that Chinese political leadership believes that they are the tiger and the current United States president is a braying donkey.
Threat Display
No matter what kind of game you’re playing, never mistake a threat display for a fundamental transformation or escalation of the game. The China Trade War is STILL a game of chicken.
The Joy of Fiat News
Everybody does Fiat News. But some people get it deep in their soul. A lot of those people work at a particular paper in New York.
The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock
The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children.
We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.
Office Hours – 7.30.2019
It’s the July 30th, 2019 Office Hours! Today, we’re all MMT’ers, or at least that’s the narrative in political space. But what about markets?
Children of a Lesser Narrative
Perhaps there is an emerging and cohesive narrative around the zombiefication effects of structurally low interest rates. As much as we’d like this to be the case, we think it has yet to really register.
We’re All MMT’ers Now
If Trump is reelected in 2020, I think he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. They’ll be called Infrastructure Bonds.
If a Democrat is elected in 2020, I think she or he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. They’ll be called Green Bonds.
We’re all MMT’ers now.
The Patsy, Revisited
We all know we’re supposed to figure out who the patsy at the table is, but somehow everyone we see ends up being a straw man. Maybe fine in normal markets, but in periods of stress? If you don’t know who owns it, you don’t know anything.
So I got that goin’ for me
Everyone is right about buybacks. They’re good. They’re fine. They’re ethical. Oh, and they’ll be gone, too, if the industry doesn’t realize that it’s playing a metagame and not a parliamentary debate.