Our mediated cultural transition from sadness to generalized anger to focused anger at specific people and institutions of the Other Party is an entirely intentional effort by Big Politics, Big Tech and Big Media.
This is the Great Ravine, and it’s all going to get much worse before it gets any better.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
The thing about the Common Knowledge Game is that once it breaks, you can’t put it back together again. It’s over, people. This only gets worse. You can’t “reassure” voters and donors after we all saw what we all saw. pic.twitter.com/fAG8ARAASQ
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) June 30, 2024
California's new $20 min wage law exempts restaurants that bake and sell bread, where bread is defined to exclude bagels and croissants. Only benefits Panera. Newsom mega-donor owns >24 Paneras. Newsom says "part of legislative sausage-making". https://t.co/8xvHPQQ3CD
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) February 28, 2024
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Palate cleanser ...
The McGee Applied Research Center for Narrative Studies is up and running at Vanderbilt, thanks to a $5m gift from Epsilon Theory pack members!
Already doing some really cool work on the TV News Archive at Vandy!https://t.co/0DMryw49uR
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) February 26, 2024
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
CNN just described the people attending the political ceremony marking Gen Qasem Soleimani’s death as “pilgrims”.
I understand why the theo-fascist generals running Iran use this loaded language. I don’t understand why CNN copies them.
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) January 3, 2024
There has been a lot of concern about how the regulation of ChatGPT and LLMs will play out
In our latest episode of Breaking News, I asked @EpsilonTheory if it is warranted.
He reminded me that the ship isn't turning around at this point.
Full episode:https://t.co/f6VjaABCOA pic.twitter.com/0JY2s1wvIn
— Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) December 18, 2023
The most important and informative thread you will read this week. Promise. https://t.co/gLRXPLmy3l
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) November 16, 2023
I think what many Americans are missing is that Hamas has been fighting a Total War with Israel for decades, and since Oct. 7 Israel is fighting a Total War back. There are no ceasefires and no negotiations in Total War, just an existential fight to the end.
Full episode below. pic.twitter.com/rufC4bn64z
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) November 11, 2023
A fantastic conversation with @howardlindzon!
This is the Great Unmooring, and we are entering the Great Ravine. https://t.co/nPE5kEhDW9
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) November 5, 2023
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Would be poetic if the SDNY prosecuted this murder. pic.twitter.com/gZOgvyE1qL
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) November 3, 2023
Man, those internal Michigan polls must be brutal. https://t.co/GsuIgydRZq
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) November 2, 2023
If you don’t see that there is an intentional effort by China and Russia to astroturf pro-Palestine protests in the West, you’re just not paying attention. https://t.co/NtajhkPPeW
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) October 31, 2023
What’s happening right now in the art world is also exactly what’s happening in the Democratic Party. And what already happened in the Republican Party. These are schisms that cannot be fixed. https://t.co/xS1CWTrtzI
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) October 28, 2023
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
With nominal US growth of 8%+ after the fastest, severest rate hike program ever ... if you don't see that the Fed's monetary policy models are completely broken, then you're just not paying attention.https://t.co/AaImC021a1
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) October 26, 2023
The widening gyre is political polarization, presided over by the Beast of Big Politics, Big Tech and Big Media.
Why can’t we see the Beast? Because common knowledge.
Because everyone knows that everyone knows that the enemy of America is not the Beast of the widening gyre, but the Other Party.
Polarization often isn’t an accident. It is the result of intentional narrative construction – constructions designed to make us believe that we are sane and unfairly judged, and that our opponents are insane and hypocritical.
Understanding how to recognize and respond to these constructions in the wild is now an indispensable skill of the citizen.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
Day-One Advice for New Hedge Fund Portfolio Managers
Over the last 6 months, there’s been a mass influx of new hedge fund PMs, many from bank trading seats leaving for greener (?) pastures. I’ve been in both seats. I’ve had good years and disappointing years. So I present this advice with the utmost humility …
Proof of Plant: A New Vision for Crypto, Pt 1
I want to change the language of crypto from mining to growing. I do not mean this in a metaphorical sense. I mean a proof-of-plant method for literally growing cryptocurrency tokens as a representation of the value stored in the human cultivation of plants.
Reinventing the Financial System
If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
A Working Narrative
The future of remote work after the pandemic ends has been a part of the zeitgeist for more than a year.
Now it IS the zeitgeist. It is also a narrative battlefield being actively conflated with a half dozen other major social and policy topics.
ET Zeitgeist: Deadly Theatre
What is Deadly Theatre?
It’s corporate logos for Pride Month. It’s speaking gigs for Deborah Birx. It’s the cover up for Leon Black.
#BITFD
ET Zeitgeist: Raccoons Never Sleep
Lemonade (LMND) isn’t just an insurance company. No, no … they’re an AI Company! ™.
Plus Chamath is up to his old tricks.
I hate raccoons.
ET Zeitgeist: With Enemies Like This
This has been a bad week for Bitcoin and Bitcoin! TM alike. There’s no getting around that.
But whenever Paul Krugman and the Wall Street Journal agree on something … I want to be on the other side of that trade!
Mortgage Mayhem
Mortgages are pretty standard fare in the world of finance, but the American version is special: it grants its user a free option to refinance if they can get a cheaper rate elsewhere.
Every lender thinks they can thrive in this market. But every lender can’t be right.
Financing the American Home
As a non-American there are many things I don’t understand about America.
Most of all though, I don’t understand the most American of products: the 30-year fixed-rate fully prepayable mortgage.
ET Zeitgeist: Ransom Paid
The Colonial Pipeline embarrassment will accelerate the US gov’t’s efforts to control and co-opt crypto.
Binance, Kraken, BitMEX … they’re all squarely in the wrathful gaze of the Eye of Sauron now.
Wage Inflation Isn’t Coming. It’s Already Here.
Over the past four quarters, the United States has generated more wage inflation than at any point over the past 40 years.
This is not an anomaly. This is not a single quarter aberration. A wage-price inflation cycle is here.
I’m not predicting. I’m observing.
I’m Trying To Understand Hedonic Adjustments
A Honda Accord cost $12,000 in 1990 and it costs $25,000 now.
A Mustang was $9,000 and now it’s $27,000.
The BLS has new car prices close to unchanged over the past 30 years.
ET contributor Brent Donnelly tries to wrap his brain around hedonic adjustments to CPI.
ET Zeitgeist: Now Hiring
Our weekly digest on what we’re working on …
Including this article from the WSJ: Millions Are Unemployed. Why Can’t Companies Find Workers?
I dunno, if only there were some mechanism by which companies could entice people to work for them. Weird.
What Sort of Business is Investment Banking?
What do investment banks do, and why are European investment banks so bad at doing it?
Great piece by new ET contributor Marc Rubinstein!
The Zeitgeist – April 30, 2021
Here’s what we’re reading and working on this week at Epsilon Theory.
In Praise of Bitcoin
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
Bitcoin Market Profile
ET contributor Brent Donnelly gives a crash course in Market Profile analysis and applies it to Bitcoin since the Coinbase IPO.
Manheim Steamroller
When we talk about and plan for inflation in our businesses and portfolios, we are usually focused on direction and magnitude. We also usually abstract away from price volatility.
We shouldn’t.
The Zeitgeist – April 19, 2021
Here’s what we’re reading and working on this week at Epsilon Theory.
Mailbag: ET Forum Edition
We are now more than 900 Pack members strong on the ET Forum, with more than 1,000 posts contributed by smart, clear-eyed, full-hearted people from all over the world and all walks of life. Like you.
Here, I’ll show you. Here is some of the best and most thoughtful content on the internet today.
Here is the Mailbag that we need.
Here is the Mailbag that we deserve.