It’s not the tariffs. It’s not the recession. These are just the catalysts through which the true enemy shows himself.
The true enemy is the over-financialization of the US Treasury market, and its catalyst is the diminishment of the full faith and credit of the United States.
I am desperately opposed to crashing the Pax Americana car, Annie Hall style, because the America First system that this Administration wants as a replacement is not a stable system that is possible as a replacement.
This is an exclusive subscriber-only preview of the first six chapters of Rusty Guinn’s upcoming book Outsourcing Consciousness: How Social Networks are Making Us Lose Our Minds. The book explores how evolution, polarization, and technology are slowly transforming humanity into a hive mind - and what we can and can't do about it.
The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a Narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Men of God in the City of Man
Amid the Widening Gyre of politics and the black hole of financial markets, the only anchor is us, together, walking with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts. Experience Ben's original 4-part series.
Outsourcing Consciousness
The Long Now
Men of God in a City of Man
Things Fall Apart
Recent Notes
ET Zeitgeist: Deadly Theatre
What is Deadly Theatre?
It’s corporate logos for Pride Month. It’s speaking gigs for Deborah Birx. It’s the cover up for Leon Black.
#BITFD
ET Zeitgeist: Raccoons Never Sleep
Lemonade (LMND) isn’t just an insurance company. No, no … they’re an AI Company! ™.
Plus Chamath is up to his old tricks.
I hate raccoons.
ET Zeitgeist: With Enemies Like This
This has been a bad week for Bitcoin and Bitcoin! TM alike. There’s no getting around that.
But whenever Paul Krugman and the Wall Street Journal agree on something … I want to be on the other side of that trade!
ET Zeitgeist: Ransom Paid
The Colonial Pipeline embarrassment will accelerate the US gov’t’s efforts to control and co-opt crypto.
Binance, Kraken, BitMEX … they’re all squarely in the wrathful gaze of the Eye of Sauron now.
Wage Inflation Isn’t Coming. It’s Already Here.
Over the past four quarters, the United States has generated more wage inflation than at any point over the past 40 years.
This is not an anomaly. This is not a single quarter aberration. A wage-price inflation cycle is here.
I’m not predicting. I’m observing.
ET Zeitgeist: Now Hiring
Our weekly digest on what we’re working on …
Including this article from the WSJ: Millions Are Unemployed. Why Can’t Companies Find Workers?
I dunno, if only there were some mechanism by which companies could entice people to work for them. Weird.
The Zeitgeist – April 30, 2021
Here’s what we’re reading and working on this week at Epsilon Theory.
In Praise of Bitcoin
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
Manheim Steamroller
When we talk about and plan for inflation in our businesses and portfolios, we are usually focused on direction and magnitude. We also usually abstract away from price volatility.
We shouldn’t.
The Zeitgeist – April 19, 2021
Here’s what we’re reading and working on this week at Epsilon Theory.
Mailbag: ET Forum Edition
We are now more than 900 Pack members strong on the ET Forum, with more than 1,000 posts contributed by smart, clear-eyed, full-hearted people from all over the world and all walks of life. Like you.
Here, I’ll show you. Here is some of the best and most thoughtful content on the internet today.
Here is the Mailbag that we need.
Here is the Mailbag that we deserve.
What Do We Need To Be True?
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
A Tiger Can’t Change Its Stripes
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Hot and Cold
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
The Best Way to Rob a Bank
I think that the collapse of Greensill Capital has a lot of systemic risk embedded within it, particularly as the fraudulent deals between Greensill and its major sponsors – Softbank and Credit Suisse – come to light.
This is the first Big Fraud I’ve seen in 13 years with the sheer heft and star power to ripple through markets in a systemic way. Not since Madoff.
A Freaky Circle
Excessive complexity in a deal or structure isn’t necessarily nefarious, but it also isn’t a good sign. The distraction and confusion you and I feel reading about these deals is usually not the problem.
It is the point.
A Change in the Water
Increasingly, the common knowledge of our investment world – what everyone knows that everyone knows – is that inflation is a problem and you should be focused on it.
The Opposite of 2008
In 2008, the US housing market – together with a Fed that thought the subprime crisis was “contained” – delivered the mother of all deflationary shocks to the global economy.
In 2021, the US housing market – together with a Fed that thinks inflationary pressures are “transitory” – risks delivering the mother of all inflationary shocks.
The ET Pack is going to figure this out … together.
The Third Rail Switch
In the same way that narrative shaped a conversation about the role of police going forward in 2020, narrative can shape a conversation about the role of teacher unions and public sector unions more broadly. My money is still on the status quo, but I’ve been wrong before.
Danish Food-Safety Expertise for the Win
WHO beclowns itself with its “fact-finding mission” to Wuhan.