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A Death in the Family

By Ben Hunt | 51 Comments

Today I know that the meaning of the American Presidency is dead, and like the loss of a beloved family matriarch it’s a loss I’ll never get over. I know that I have to accept it, but I’ll never get over it. And right now I’m still pretty angry at ALL of them.

The Four Horsemen of the Great Ravine, Part 1

By Ben Hunt | 22 Comments

Every so often, things fall apart.

In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.

From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.

Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a Narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.

Men of God in the City of Man

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Men of God in the City of Man, Part 1: Virus

By Rusty Guinn |
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Men of God in the City of Man, Part 2: Carriers

By Rusty Guinn |
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Men of God in the City of Man, Part 3: Memetics

By Rusty Guinn |
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Men of God in the City of Man, Part 4: Epimemetics

By Rusty Guinn |
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Men of God in the City of Man, Pt. 5: Epidemic

By Rusty Guinn |

Outsourcing Consciousness

The Long Now

Men of God in a City of Man

Things Fall Apart

Recent Notes

The 18th Brumaire of Janet Yellen

By Ben Hunt | November 24, 2013

One of the more painful lessons in investing is that the prudent investor (or ‘value investor’ if you prefer) almost invariably must forego plenty of…

When E.F. Hutton Talks

By Ben Hunt | November 17, 2013

If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. – Barack Obama Of course, one objective of both traditional and nontraditional policy…

The Wages of Fear

By Ben Hunt | November 10, 2013

You don’t know what fear is. But you’ll see. It’s catching, it’s catching like small pox! And once you get it, it’s for life! So…

Poindexter Über Alles

By Ben Hunt | November 7, 2013

Recent papers written by Fed functionaries and the attendant media attention serve as a reminder of the academic and bureaucratic capture of the Fed. More…

A Game of Sentiment

By Ben Hunt | November 3, 2013

PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15830/ I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows…

Render Unto Caesar

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2013

There are two sides to the Epsilon Theory coin — looking at market-shaping current events through the lens of game theory and history, and looking…

What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2013

The central banks of the West announced today that their temporary swap lines would be made permanent. Like QE itself, the meaning of this emergency…

The Koan of Donald Rumsfeld

By Ben Hunt | October 20, 2013

There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are…

The Levelers

By Ben Hunt | October 13, 2013

Mr. Incredible:  You mean you killed off real heroes so that you could *pretend* to be one? Syndrome:  Oh, I’m real. Real enough to defeat you! And…

A ‘Precise and Predictable’ Yellen Fed?

By Ben Hunt | October 10, 2013

The pursuit of greater predictability and transparency in Fed communications is a mistake, particularly in the context of broad guarantees concerning world-shaking policies. We learned…

A World of Guarantees

By Ben Hunt | October 6, 2013

“We’re gonna win the game. I guarantee it.” – Joe Namath, 3 days before Super Bowl III “Our torments also may in length of time…

It’s Always Something

By Ben Hunt | September 29, 2013

More evidence that QE is no longer an emergency government policy, but is now a permanent government program. epsilon-theory-its-always-something-september-29-2013.pdf (508KB)

Uttin’ on the Itz

By Ben Hunt | September 22, 2013

High hats and arrowed collars, white spats and lots of dollars Spending every dime, for a wonderful time If you’re blue and you don’t know…

Heeere Comes Lucky!

By Ben Hunt | September 15, 2013

“It is my understanding that the Constitution of the United States allows everybody the free choice between cheesecake and strudel.” – Sky Masterson (“Guys and…

It Was Barzini All Along

By Ben Hunt | September 8, 2013

“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” – Don Vito Corleone

Same with Emerging Market growth narratives. It was Developed Market monetary policy all along.

Shifting Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence

By Ben Hunt | August 27, 2013

The strong Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence, which solidified in late September 2012, is now clearly weakening in late August 2013. There are two strands…

The Narrative Shift around Emerging Markets

By Ben Hunt | August 21, 2013

The core Narrative around Emerging Markets is shifting away from growth and towards value. This is a profoundly disruptive development. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-shift-around-emerging-markets-august-21-2013.pdf (50KB)

Increased Instability in US Markets

By Ben Hunt | August 19, 2013

The Common Knowledge informational structure around the US market has weakened in recent weeks, making the risk/reward assessment of ALL exposures — long and short…

Schrödinger’s Portfolio

By Ben Hunt | August 3, 2013

“The world is given to me only once, not one existing and one perceived.” – Erwin Schrödinger “Quantum theory provides us with a striking illustration of…

The Framing of Macro Data

By Ben Hunt | July 31, 2013

A review of Narrative formation immediately after the July 31st release of Q2 US GDP data. epsilon-theory-the-framing-of-macro-data-july-31-2013.pdf (232Kb)