Our brains evolved to tell stories before they evolved to speak.
This has fundamental implications for our susceptibility to communication in the networked age.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
A Man Must Have a Code
Part 1 of the Things that Matter / Things that Don’t series. Having a World View means having a center – a core set of philosophies about how the world works, what is objectively true and false, and what actually matters.
I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing
George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, and it really is a dumb idea to pretend that we do. But what’s not dumb is to keep your eyes and ears open, observing both what the world is telling you (playing the cards) and what other market participants are telling you (playing the players), and reacting accordingly. That’s the heart of tactical investing.
What Now?
On episode 17, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined once again by Downtown Josh Brown. He’s an author, CNBC contributor, and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The last time Josh joined the podcast was right after the first presidential debate. With the election and inauguration behind us, now what? Ben and Josh take on the proposed 2017 Fed rate hikes, the potential impact of a higher dollar, and what matters most in investing.
The Evolution of Competition
Over the past few weeks, I’ve had a fight with my wife and email spats with two of my best and oldest friends. In each case, I didn’t recognize that we weren’t really talking about what I thought we were talking about, and by the time I did recognize the real issues, I was already too far down the path of combative Ben to care.
Alternative Facts
A new year and a new president. On episode 16, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Rusty Guinn, executive vice president of asset management at Salient, to explore when the media morphed from agent to principal.
Fiat Money, Fiat News
In which Ben introduces the concept of fiat news, which is to “real news” what fiat currencies like dollars and euros and yen are to “real money” like a gold coin.
Mailbag #2
On episode 15 and the last of 2016, host Dr. Ben Hunt answers listeners’ questions about the Eurozone and what’s next in Italy, OPEC, and rates.
Richie Incognito
On episode 14 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Salient president and chief strategy officer Jeremy Radcliffe and co-CEO, chief investment officer, and portfolio manager from Broadmark Asset Management, Chris Guptill. As they explore how a Trump presidency might be similar to Reagan’s presidency and what a “no” vote in Italy could mean for markets, Ben and Jeremy are in awe of Chris’s encyclopedic knowledge of market history.
The Art of the Probe
We often write about Common Knowledge – the game of markets. It’s time to talk about how to play it. So how can you be a better game-player? What are some specific strategies one can adopt to play the game of markets more effectively?
American Hustle
There are three questions I’d like to answer in this Epsilon Theory note: what did The Narrative Machine tell us about the market immediately before and immediately after the November 8 election, what am I preparing for now as an investor, and what am I preparing for now as a citizen? I’m giddy about the first, quietly confident about the second, and pretty darn depressed about the third. Could be worse, I suppose.
The Day After
On episode 13 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined in San Antonio by Grant Williams, founder and publisher of Things That Make You Go Hmmm… and co-founder of Real Vision TV. It’s the day after the 2016 presidential election and time to explore how and why Trump won, what it might mean for markets, and where Dr. Hunt and Grant are turning their attention.
You Had One Job
Every dog needs a job, and every investment does, too. No single dog can be all things to all people, and neither can a single investment. Nor can any pack of dogs accomplish anything and everything you like. The biggest mistake people make when they get a dog is trying to make the dog fit into the life they wish they led, rather than the life they actually lead.
Karnak
On episode 12 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt takes a trip down memory lane to look back on the cause of the 2008 financial crisis. He applies those lessons to today’s markets and upcoming election, and nostalgically shares what might boost his spirits.
Anthem!
I want to be a patriot again. I want to be a fundamental investor again. It won’t ever be exactly like it was before, but that’s okay. A renewed faith can be a stronger faith. It just won’t be a blind faith. It has to be a faith based on my own labor and my own time, a non-alienated patriotism and a non-alienated investment strategy. It has to be a political participation and a market participation based on who we are, not who we are paid to be.
Anthem!
On episode 11 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by two of his daughters, Hannah Hunt and Harper Hunt, to find out if they have an anthem this election season: a rousing cause or political movement about which they feel passionate. They also discuss the role of government and if their difference of opinion is a result of a generational gap.
Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
The First Presidential Debate
On episode 10 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Downtown Josh Brown, author, CNBC contributor, and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Ben and Josh discuss their reaction to the first presidential debate and what it would mean to have a President Clinton or a President Trump.
Essence of Decision
Here’s the thing. The Fed is now revealing its one True Love — its own reputation and its own political standing — and that’s going to be a bombshell revelation to investors who think that the Fed loves them.
Jubilee!
We’re back in Houston on Episode 9 of the Epsilon Theory podcast. Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Salient’s chief investment officer Lee Partridge and…
Magical Thinking
The problem with magical thinking run amok and its perpetuation of a fantasy world is that sooner or later the dream of the delusional king becomes a real world nightmare for real world people. It’s time to wake up.