Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.
It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.
Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.
But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
Danish Food-Safety Expertise for the Win
WHO beclowns itself with its “fact-finding mission” to Wuhan.
Hammers and Nails
When we talk about bias, we usually think about a political bias. But the world of 2021 now supports persistent idiosyncratic biases and frames through which information is passed. How do we ensure that our information consumption habits account for this?
Hunger Games
You have been told that the odds are ever in your favor. You have been told this for your entire life. More and more, you suspect this is a lie.
You have been told a new story. A brave story. That by banding together and acting as one, you can “democratize” the stock market. Today, as you see the collapsing stock prices of the companies you supported, you suspect that this was a lie, as well.
The Invulnerable Hero*
No, the real story here probably isn’t about a revolution against Wall Street. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t an opportunity to build a movement – right now – to transform it toward fair, free and open markets.
The Zimbabwe Event
The South African variant virus (501.V2) is not the immediate threat to the United States as the UK variant virus (B117). But 501.V2 has the potential to create a far more powerful narrative – vaccine resistance – that can have a greater market impact than the more pressing issues of B117.
More and more, I think the variant viruses create a tradeable event for markets.
For Leon Black is an Honorable Man
O judgment! thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason. Bear with me;
My heart is in the coffin there with the American dream that once was,
And I must pause till it come back to me.
A Different Game
The light research poured into sentiment analysis misses one rather important fact: that’s the game we used to play. Today’s Fiat News is a different game altogether.
UK-Variant SARS-CoV-2 Update
The spread of B117 in a Covid-fatigued country like the US is a profoundly deflationary, risk-off, dollar higher, flight to safety event in real-world.
Does it matter to market-world?
The Ireland Event
I believe there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will experience a rolling series of “Ireland events” over the next 30-45 days, where the Covid effective reproductive number (Re not R0) reaches a value between 2.4 and 3.0 in states and regions where a) the more infectious UK-variant (or similar) Covid strain has been introduced, and b) Covid fatigue has led to deterioration in social distancing behaviors.
Reap the Whirlwind
There is a brief window where I think we have the opportunity to commit to building a common national identity together. Seizing this opportunity will mean leaving a lot of anger we will feel is entirely justified at the door.
Not seizing it, I fear, will mean that we all reap the whirlwind.
“Suicide Bomber” vs suicide bomber
On Christmas Day, Nashville was attacked by a suicide bomber terrorist. But not by a “Suicide Bomber”. Not by a “Terrorist”.
Why not? Because his terrorist goals didn’t fit neatly into a useful political narrative like “Antifa!” or “Proud Boys!”
Here’s what this looks like in The Narrative Machine.
The ZIRP Paradox
It may seem ironic that a narrative about the long-term could be deployed to distort the rewards of effective, market-based long-term capital allocation for short-term benefit.
This is, I think, the heart of The ZIRP Paradox:
The myth of infinite horizon investing is the enemy of long-term investing.
An Old Joke
So an agent for a new over-the-top variety act finally gets a meeting with the biggest producer in the world. I mean, maybe ‘the world’ is selling it short. Word on the street is this guy’s even got God’s ear, if you can believe it.
Russian Nesting Deals
Sometimes complicated is complicated because it has to be. But this nesting doll of a SPAC deal with Dyal (Neuberger Berman) IS weird and worthy of more than usual scrutiny, especially if you are an LP in one of these funds.
The Ghosts of Commentary Future
These are The Ghosts of Wall Street Commentary Future. And if their chains are not already clanking around in your inbox, they will be very, very soon.
Ten Times Faster Than The Sun’s Beams
The Wall Street narrative machine is in overdrive to create a “Yay, Value!” rally here at year-end.
Like any effective advertising campaign, it will work. I’m not saying this rally isn’t real.
I’m saying that you should reconsider what “real” means.
AMA? BITFD!
The American Medical Association is not a charitable organization.
The American Medical Association is not an educational organization.
The American Medical Association is a tax-exempt hedge fund and licensing corporation, designed from the ground up to enrich its executives and serve its own bureaucratic interests.
Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
Office Hours – 11.17.2020
It’s the November 17th Office Hours, where Ben and Rusty discuss all things narrative in an interactive format.
The Endemic Mindset
COVID-19 is endemic, and its mutations will likely be part of our lives going forward.
But there is another disease this virus has caused, and it is a disease of the mind. It is the endemic mindset. And we can eradicate it.
Today.
The Grifters, Chapter 3 – Election Prediction
Polls create the plays. Election models create the score. Fivey Fox and “Nate Silver” announce the game. All to create engagement with a diversified media corporation.
No one understands how to create and sell a spectator sport better than Disney.