Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.
It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.
Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.
But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
Rise of the Machines
“Music, this complex and mysterious act, precise as algebra and vague as a dream, this art made out of mathematics and air, is simply the…
The Tao of Portfolio Management
“Shape clay into a vessel; It is the space within that makes it useful. Cut doors and windows for a room; It is the holes…
The Market of Babel
“But Achilles, weeping, quickly slipping away from his companions, sat on the shore of the gray salt sea, and looked out to the wine-dark sea.”…
The Music of the Spheres and the Alchemy of Finance
“You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or…
How Gold Lost Its Luster, How the All-Weather Fund Got Wet, and Other Just-So Stories
In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the Common Knowledge of the day.
Today our Common Knowledge is that gold is an insurance policy against central bank error.
The Matrix Reloaded — Seeing Markets as Informational Structures
A review of current market informational structure one week post the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-matrix-reloaded-seeing-markets-as-informational-structures-june-27-2013.pdf (295KB)
2 Fast 2 Furious
We are all impaled on the crook of conditioning. – James Dean (1931 – 1955) This note is a sequel to my letter from two weeks…
The Narrative Battle is Joined
A review of Narrative formation efforts on June 21st to support the market. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-battle-is-joined-june-21-2013.pdf (227KB)
What’s the Opposite of ‘Green Shoots’?
An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-whats-the-opposite-of-green-shoots-june-20-2013.pdf (235KB)
Failure to Communicate, Part Deux
A review of Narrative formation immediately after the June 19th FOMC announcement. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15677/
Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill
The first ET note focused on Information Theory.
What We’ve Got Here Is … Failure to Communicate
From the classic Paul Newman movie, Cool Hand Luke, as the Captain administers Luke’s punishment in the prison yard for yet another escape attempt: Captain: You…
Epsilon Theory Manifesto
Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective.
Friday Was an Important Day
An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the Nov. 18th Boehner/Reid press conference. epsilon-theory-friday-was-an-important-day-november-18-2012.pdf (247 KB)
Don’t Mess with Mister In-Between
Early research on the relationship between informational surfaces and structural market change. epsilon-theory-dont-mess-with-mister-in-between.pdf (244 KB)
Jack Welch was Right
An analysis of systematic error in BLS data and its role in the Narrative regarding US labor conditions. epsilon-theory-jack-welch-was-right-october-29-2012.pdf (219 KB)
Donald Rumsfeld and Risk Management
Early notes on investment as an exercise in decision-making under uncertainty. epsilon-theory-donald-rumsfeld-and-risk-management-october-7-2012.pdf (197 KB)
Hello Darkness My Old Friend
Growing political fragmentation in Europe and its structural consequences for markets. epsilon-theory-hello-darkness-my-old-friend-september-29-2012.pdf (123 KB)
Dude, Where’s My Financial Repression
An initial analysis of the Sept. 15th FOMC announcement of open-ended QE. epsilon-theory-dude-wheres-my-financial-repression-september-15-2012.pdf (191 KB)
Why Do Words Matter So Much?
Early notes on importance of Common Knowledge game in understanding market behavior. epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB) Test: epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB)