Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.
It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.
Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.
But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
The Zeitgeist | 1.24.2019
An American mutual fund gatekeeper does PR for China, DNC gunning for Wall Street, multiple missionaries live from the pulpit in Davos.
The Zeitgeist | 1.23.2019
Talking ourselves into a recession, trusting our employers, and a fine example of government shutdown Fiat News.
The Zeitgeist | 1.22.2019
Welcome back, folks. Today, it’s all about cloud and blockchain, but no cannabis. Also: tech earnings, Trump can’t make a deal, and corporate debt.
Schrödinger’s Staredown
The gyre widens again, and if we are not careful, it will force us into positions that require us to deny the basic humanity of our fellow citizens. Reject it.
In the News | Week of 1.21.2019
Another big earnings week across banks, insurance, energy services, staples, transports and other industrials.
What Gang Aft Agley
We asset owners and allocators (rightfully) obsess about alignment, but too often that obsession becomes an outward one, motivated by our rights and entitlements instead of our ultimate best interest.
The Zeitgeist | 1.18.2019
Today it’s Morgan Stanley, the price of rice, Morgan Stanley, the art of AI and a bit more Morgan Stanley.
Modern Monetary Theory or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the National Debt
Modern Monetary Theory is neither modern nor a theory. It’s a post hoc rationalization of politically expedient policy that makes us feel better about all the bad stuff we’ve done with money and debt in service to Team Elite.
And all the bad stuff we’re going to do in the future.
The Zeitgeist | 1.17.2019
The Zeitgeist for January 17th: China, ‘no inflation’, advice from Bogle, and another day, another cannabis headline.
ET Live – 1.15.2019
ET Live! is now in the books for January, but you can catch the replay here.
Navigating the Discovery Map
At the suggestion of one of our friends and subscribers, we wanted to provide what we think are some of the best launch points for exploration of the newly published Discovery Map. The only question: do you want to explore topics in depth or see the connections between them?
In The News | Week of 1.14.2019
A busier than usual week, as first quarter earnings season kicks off for banks and airlines. A few other notables in tech and energy, as well.
Shikaka!
In this news cycle, if an issue sticks around for more than a week, you can be sure that it isn’t by accident. It’s because it represents an abstraction, and because those in influence like how that abstraction changes our behavior.
You Are Here
The greatest risk to your portfolio is a change in the zeitgeist. A change from deflation to inflation. A change from cooperative international games to competitive games. A change from capital markets to political utilities.
I think it’s all happening.
The Alembic
Distillation isn’t a process of concentration. It isn’t a natural progression. It is a violent changing of the underlying thing. So, too, is portfolio construction.
Run, Run, Pass
It’s easy to convince ourselves that the opposite of being narrative-driven is being data-driven. This is a lie. The most common way that narrative influences our behavior is through unadorned data, presented with the unstated implication that it is necessary, sufficient and explanatory.
We Are All Epsilon Theorists Now
I found this photo from Friday’s presser, when Jay Powell was asked to describe how much credibility he has now.
JK. But also, LOL.
In the News | Week of 1.7.2019
Three reporting companies this week. The most-connected articles include an odd weed obsession among media and analysts, and a…rather unfortunate Delta experience.
A Game of Them
When it comes to politics and social media, making up straw men about our enemies to make them look ridiculous seems like good entertainment. But beware embracing amusing-but-wrong cartoons in zero sum games.
Epsilon Theory Discovery Map
Introducing the Epsilon Theory Discovery Map – a novel way to navigate the Epsilon Theory archives, not based on chronology or author, but based on connectivity, similarity and consistency in the underlying narratives.