Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.
It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.
Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.
But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
The Zeitgeist – 3.12.2019
Today’s Zeitgeist is about winning when we’re losing, the polarizing power of hyperbole, more on SRI/ESG, a wonderful specimen of the Mad Creditor Letter and a less-wonderful specimen of the Obligatory Press Release.
Birth of a Salesman
Everything about the Zeitgeist is working to steer promising minds toward cultivating the skills and temperament needed to succeed in a Fiat World. We are creating a generation of missionaries.
Just one small problem: a competitive game among missionaries is a stag hunt. The dominant strategy for each of us individually is bad for us all. So what the hell do we do?
The Zeitgeist – 3.11.2019
Today’s Zeitgeist is about crashes on crashes, Nplpalooza 2019 and hunger-striking ruined property tycoons.
But mostly we celebrate the hedge fund industry’s effort to shake off last year’s challenges. From all of us, thank you for this gift of what we will just assume is uncorrelated alpha.
The Zeitgeist Weekend Edition – 3.9.2019
A Weekend Edition of the Zeitgeist, where we turn from financial markets to find the narratives and stories from the last week or so that were most connected to common narratives in culture and politics.
The Zeitgeist – 3.8.2019
Climate change! Secretive boards! A gazillion dollars! Boat Race Bank!
Wait…Boat Race Bank?
It’s the Zeitgeist on Epsilon Theory, where we all knew we were living in a world of Fiat News. We just needed to refocus on fundamentals.
Fiat World
We are immersed 24/7 in a Fiat World, where we are TOLD that inflation does not exist, where we are TOLD that wealth inequality and meager productivity and negative savings rates just “happen”, where we are TOLD we must vote for ridiculous candidates and buy ridiculous securities and borrow ridiculous sums.
We’re not Flat Earthers. Ha Ha! Those guys are idiots! Can you imagine believing that stuff?
No, we’re not Flat Earthers. We are Fiat Earthers.
The Zeitgeist – 3.7.2019
Ladies and gentlemen, your narrative-world assault words du jour … “sponsored content”, “democratic justifications”, “fishing expeditions”, “diversification”, “value investing”, and “growth of $1”.
The ET Zeitgeist, because if you don’t know who the sucker is at the poker table … it’s you.
The Zeitgeist | 3.6.2019
Kashkari on Brexit, Cramer on Tesla, Breitbart on China, and “shorting unethical stocks” … all in a day’s work for The Zeitgeist!
Every morning, we run The Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world. They’re not the best articles – often far from it – but they will arm you for the Narrative wars of the day ahead.
The Zeitgeist | 3.5.2019
Fiat News and narrative construction galore in today’s set of the most on-narrative financial media articles.
What links them all? Dopamine is a helluva drug.
The Zeitgeist | 3.4.2019
The new Zeitgeist is here! Now with all the snippets and twice the snark.
Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world. They’re not the best articles – often far from it – but they will arm you for the Narrative wars of the day ahead.
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
Why are institutional investors in trouble with the new Zeitgeist of capital markets transformed into a political utility?
Because everything you think you know about portfolio diversification will fail. Because emerging markets are going to be crushed before this is over. Because everyone’s inflation-investing muscles have atrophied to the point of helplessness. Because you think long-vol and crisis-alpha are things.
The Zeitgeist | 3.1.2019
BATs vs. FAANGs, trading against institutions, trading with institutions, why Americans buy cars and a shocking J.C. Penney news bulletin.
In Praise of Work
The problem isn’t that we derive too much of our worth and value from work. The problem is that our jobs are becoming increasingly abstracted from work. Friends: Your work is holy.
The Zeitgeist | 2.28.2019
Lots of Blockchain, UK house prices subdued, trade talks weigh, idol worship perilous, a rich kid buys gold and why Nintendo goes back to Pokemon.
They’re Not Even Pretending Anymore
Now that Jay Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony has finished up, it’s time for a brief walk down Memory Lane.
As with everything else in our Washington clown show, nothing really changes. This has all happened before.
The Zeitgeist | 2.27.2019
A World Full of Elons, the unrevolutionary foldable era, the fastest strike in history and more arbitrary causal links in financial media.
The Zeitgeist | 2.26.2019
Markets ‘seek clarity’ on China/US trade, fire engine manufacturers, drug price hearings, and lowball hostile bids.
The Seed Delusion
The hobbyist farmer can afford to spread wildflower seeds to the wind and the elements. The professional farmer, on the other hand, doesn’t have this luxury. Neither do any of us as investors.
In the News | Week of 2.25.2019
Home improvement, midstream energy, travel and leisure, and the heart attack that wasn’t caused by energy drinks.
The Zeitgeist | 2.25.2019
A tariff three-fer, subsidizing orphans like it’s a bad thing, Buffett buffetted, and MMT/GND propaganda shifts into a new gear.