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I, Nazgûl

By Rusty Guinn | 10 Comments

Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.

It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.

Apocalypse Always

By Rusty Guinn | 10 Comments

Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.

But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.

Donald Trump and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | 34 Comments

The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.

The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.

Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble

By Ben Hunt | 19 Comments

Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.

Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.

Recent Notes

The Zeitgeist – 5.3.2019

By Rusty Guinn | May 3, 2019

It’s the Friday Zeitgeist, in which people who will never buy a company learn how to do it, Powell delivers a belly-rub and takes away a child’s cookie jar simultaneously, Swiss francs climb the Zeitgeist ladder, a local bank makes it up on volume, and we all declare together that an OK faux-hamburger is more than just a faux-hamburger.

The Zeitgeist – 5.2.2019

By Ben Hunt | May 2, 2019

Content placement by asset managers is like the elaborate red pouch of the male frigate bird. It is SO wasteful and extravagant that – in an economically perverse way – it demonstrates your evolutionary fitness. 

Ditto for why the sell-side still cares about II ratings and “who’s the ax?” and all that stuff that hasn’t mattered for 20 years.

It’s plumage.

The Zeitgeist – 5.1.2019

By Ben Hunt | May 1, 2019

Berkshire Hathaway’s financing for Occidental is in the Zeitgeist today.

What is shadow banking? THIS.

Not that there’s anything wrong with it. Hey, this is Uncle Warren’s true face, and I’m a fan of authenticity in all its forms and ways. But if you think poorly of a guy like, say, Ken Griffin because you think Citadel was “bailed out by the US taxpayer”, and you don’t think EXACTLY the same about Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway … then you’ve been played.

The Zeitgeist – 4.30.2019

By Rusty Guinn | April 30, 2019

It’s the Tuesday Zeitgeist, in which we explore how you could go with this (or you could go with that), the power of AS, my respect for you, IPOs aplenty and the trade/rotation of choice.

Starry Eyes and Starry Skies

By Rusty Guinn | April 29, 2019

The student loan crisis is a Big Deal. And it is only a part of a Bigger Deal: the Myth of College.

This issue will be front-and-center in the upcoming elections. We will all be handed our very own ‘Yay, College’ signs to raise high. More often than not, we will be asked to raise them in service of market-distorting policies which will make our problems worse.

The Zeitgeist – 4.29.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 29, 2019

Our lead article today is about Uber (driving-as-a-service) and Amazon (shopping-as-a-service). It’s the triumph of on-demand everything, that makes both production and consumption an experience.

What do you get out experiential consumption and production?

You get to hold up a card that says, “Yay, swineherding!”

The Zeitgeist Weekend Edition – 4.27.2019

By Rusty Guinn | April 27, 2019

It’s the Weekend Zeitgeist, which means we leave the world of finance behind us to delve into bipartisan distrust of government, local opinion writers’ opinions on packaging materials, Yoopers, F-35 sales to completely trustworthy foreign partners, Fiat Features and the worst thing I ever saw.

The Zeitgeist – 4.26.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 26, 2019

Yeah, we’re at that point in the cycle where you will be told about all the wonderful opportunities provided by levered private REITS. 

For your IRA.

Because of all this craaaazy volatility in the stock market.

That and the President’s Cheif Economic Advisur tells us why “Dow 36,000” is just the tip of the iceberg.

The Zeitgeist – 4.25.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 25, 2019

What is the only true superpower? The power to name things.

We name Milken and Boesky as junk-bond kings. We name their actions as a spree. We name their outcomes as devastation. We name their instrument as debt.

Today we name it balance sheet expansion.

Every man a king!

The Zeitgeist – 4.24.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 24, 2019

Say what you will about @jack, but he understands the necessary and sufficient condition for being a successful CEO today: create a Wall Street-supported non-GAAP narrative to describe your company’s financial results.

Tired: MAUs
Wired: mDAUs

All this, plus Russell Wilson continues surfing the Zeitgeist like no one else.

Office Hours – 4.24.2019

By Rusty Guinn | April 24, 2019

In which Ben and Rusty discuss financialization, the incentivizes of low interest rate policy, the ‘financialization’ of education and the meaning of both for us…

The Zeitgeist – 4.23.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 23, 2019

China’s Belt and Road Initiative is back, baby! Just needed a little narrative happy face of “respect for global debt goals” and “promotion of green growth”. That plus multi-billion dollar non-recourse loans at 2% for a high-speed rail to nowhere.

Plus more on Walmart robots, ESG, and of course Free College!

Just another day of you can’t make it up, fresh from the ET Zeitgeist.

The Zeitgeist – 4.22.2019

By Rusty Guinn | April 22, 2019

The Monday Zeitgeist today is about companies actually being allowed to go bankrupt, the usual DB/CBK chatter, money flow cartoons, great moments in bad metagame, and a decent little personal finance column.

The Zeitgeist Weekend Edition – 4.20.2019

By Rusty Guinn | April 20, 2019

This Weekend Edition is a bit of a downer, but the Zeitgeist is what it is. And the non-financial markets Zeitgeist right now? It’s all about poverty, the spirit of poverty and how people transform our concerns about both into political power.

The Zeitgeist – 4.19.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 19, 2019

What Herman Cain would bring to the Fed, what Socrates brings to the MMT debate, what Pinterest and Zoom bring to the IPO market, and what work European PMs bring home when the markets are closed.

All in a day’s work for a Good Friday Zeitgeist.

The Zeitgeist – 4.18.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 18, 2019

Turns out that we may not be on the precipice of a global recession after all, that AOC may be pretty good at this politics game, and that parasitic companies enjoy Insane Clown Posse more than most. Also, Bob Pisani reveals CNBC’s noble mission.

This is Water

By Ben Hunt | April 17, 2019

Capitalist productivity has become capitalist financialization.

Wall Street gets something to sell, management gets stock-based comp, and the White House gets re-election.

What do YOU get out of financialization? You get to hold up a card that says “Yay, capitalism!”.

The Zeitgeist – 4.17.2019

By Rusty Guinn | April 17, 2019

It’s the Wednesday Zeitgeist, chock full of belied recessions, a little bit of humility, a little bit of YOLO, an expensive investment sold on yield, a less expensive investment sold on yield, slow maybes and a peek into the Widening Gyre.

The Zeitgeist – 4.16.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 16, 2019

It’s not even a wall of worry any more. More like tiny little speed hurdles that we set up to clear by a mile. Just another day’s work for the Fiat News machine.

They’re not even pretending anymore.

Neverland

By Rusty Guinn | April 16, 2019

Disney is making a play to return to Neverland, a land where valuations are based on establishing market share and dominance of an emerging industry, where the moment you start worrying about how much money you’re making is the moment the narrative breaks. For students of markets and narratives alike, it will be worth watching.