Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.
It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.
Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.
But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
A Cartoon in Three Parts
Cartoons are not evil. And yet they are the engine behind the Long Now, and very much at the center of our financial Zeitgeist. What is a clear eyed, full-hearted investor and citizen to do?
The Last Chance
You want scarcity? Access to the upper echelons of high society? Well, say no more. It’s your very last chance to buy this most special, most fantastical, most legendary, most unattainable of whiskies.
Are You Sweet Talking Me?
It’s my favorite part of any Batman movie … that scene where the henchman pays a visit to the crazed supervillain – the Joker is the gold standard here – and you just know that the meeting is about to go terribly, terribly awry for the thug.
It’s a funny scene in a movie.
It’s a crappy way to run a country.
The Donkey of Guizhou
My point in relating the fable of the Donkey of Guizhou is not that I believe China is the tiger and the United States is the donkey in our current trade-war-going-to-currency-war.
My point in relating the fable of the Donkey of Guizhou is not that I believe the current United States president is a braying donkey in his “easy to win” trade-war-going-to-currency-war.
I mean … I do, but that’s not my point.
My point is that Chinese political leadership believes that they are the tiger and the current United States president is a braying donkey.
Threat Display
No matter what kind of game you’re playing, never mistake a threat display for a fundamental transformation or escalation of the game. The China Trade War is STILL a game of chicken.
The Joy of Fiat News
Everybody does Fiat News. But some people get it deep in their soul. A lot of those people work at a particular paper in New York.
The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock
The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children.
We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.
Office Hours – 7.30.2019
It’s the July 30th, 2019 Office Hours! Today, we’re all MMT’ers, or at least that’s the narrative in political space. But what about markets?
Children of a Lesser Narrative
Perhaps there is an emerging and cohesive narrative around the zombiefication effects of structurally low interest rates. As much as we’d like this to be the case, we think it has yet to really register.
We’re All MMT’ers Now
If Trump is reelected in 2020, I think he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. They’ll be called Infrastructure Bonds.
If a Democrat is elected in 2020, I think she or he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. They’ll be called Green Bonds.
We’re all MMT’ers now.
The Patsy, Revisited
We all know we’re supposed to figure out who the patsy at the table is, but somehow everyone we see ends up being a straw man. Maybe fine in normal markets, but in periods of stress? If you don’t know who owns it, you don’t know anything.
So I got that goin’ for me
Everyone is right about buybacks. They’re good. They’re fine. They’re ethical. Oh, and they’ll be gone, too, if the industry doesn’t realize that it’s playing a metagame and not a parliamentary debate.
I’m Not a Raccoon! I’m the Lone Ranger!
Price drives the transaction volumes of non-cash-flowing, non-productive things. Not the other way around.
There are prominent people at the intersection of Wall Street and crypto who know this to be true – who know that the “Yay, network effects!” narrative is BS when it comes to Bitcoin – but who promote the narrative anyway.
Why? Because they know that it’s narrative – even false narrative – that DOES drive the price.
The Only Winning Move
It’s privacy and big tech again in today’s Zeitgeist, which is all about mutually assured surveillance. And for Epsilon Theory, it hits home. I think it will hit home for you, too.
The Problem with Brussels Sprouts
Some things are only palatable when they have been transformed into a cartoonish version of themselves. For financial professionals that raises a moral question: how much emphasis on the cartoon of expertise about us is too much?
Mailbag: A Modern Vocational Curriculum
We get a lot of email and responses, but we REALLY got a lot about our comments on a curriculum that could replace the signaling-minded post-secondary degree industry. We publish them here.
We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat
Financialization is not a mean-reverting phenomenon. It’s too good of a gravy train for Wall Street, corporate management and the White House to stop now. So they won’t. Like any self-respecting Great White shark, the Nudging State and the Nudging Oligarchy never stop swimming. They never stop eating.
Want to survive these financialized waters if you’re potential shark food? You’re gonna need a bigger boat.
When Did You Stop Beating Your Wife?
“De Blasio’s ‘pay parity’ hypocrisy” is a feature article in today’s NY Post, and a central article in today’s media Zeitgeist.
Dig a little deeper into the “scandal”, and you learn that the “evidence” is complete horseshit.
It’s an article specifically designed to manipulate someone like me … someone who is VERY predisposed to believe the worst about Bill de Blasio because I dislike his politics SO MUCH.
It’s a rage engagement, one of two primary forms of Fiat News used to win the Game of You.
Election Index: Beyond the Debates – 6.30.2019
The first debates have come and gone, and winners and losers identified. Yet in narrative world, we see a slightly different story. We learn about it in the June 30th edition of Epsilon Theory’s Election Index.
The Upside Down
Everything is topsy-turvy in the Upside Down of Stranger Things. That’s the Big Baddie in the picture above, known as the Mind Flayer.
Financial media is a Mind Flayer, too, especially when it comes to coverage of crypto and tech companies.