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I, Nazgûl

By Rusty Guinn | 10 Comments

Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.

It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.

Apocalypse Always

By Rusty Guinn | 10 Comments

Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.

But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.

Donald Trump and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | 34 Comments

The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.

The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.

Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble

By Ben Hunt | 19 Comments

Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.

Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.

Recent Notes

A Cartoon in Three Parts

By Rusty Guinn | August 8, 2019

Cartoons are not evil. And yet they are the engine behind the Long Now, and very much at the center of our financial Zeitgeist. What is a clear eyed, full-hearted investor and citizen to do?

The Last Chance

By Rusty Guinn | August 7, 2019

You want scarcity? Access to the upper echelons of high society? Well, say no more. It’s your very last chance to buy this most special, most fantastical, most legendary, most unattainable of whiskies.

Are You Sweet Talking Me?

By Ben Hunt | August 6, 2019

It’s my favorite part of any Batman movie … that scene where the henchman pays a visit to the crazed supervillain – the Joker is the gold standard here – and you just know that the meeting is about to go terribly, terribly awry for the thug.

It’s a funny scene in a movie.

It’s a crappy way to run a country.

The Donkey of Guizhou

By Ben Hunt | August 5, 2019

My point in relating the fable of the Donkey of Guizhou is not that I believe China is the tiger and the United States is the donkey in our current trade-war-going-to-currency-war.

My point in relating the fable of the Donkey of Guizhou is not that I believe the current United States president is a braying donkey in his “easy to win” trade-war-going-to-currency-war.

I mean … I do, but that’s not my point.

My point is that Chinese political leadership believes that they are the tiger and the current United States president is a braying donkey.

Threat Display

By Rusty Guinn | August 2, 2019

No matter what kind of game you’re playing, never mistake a threat display for a fundamental transformation or escalation of the game. The China Trade War is STILL a game of chicken.

The Joy of Fiat News

By Rusty Guinn | August 1, 2019

Everybody does Fiat News. But some people get it deep in their soul. A lot of those people work at a particular paper in New York.

The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | July 31, 2019

The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children.

We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.

Tick-tock.

Office Hours – 7.30.2019

By Rusty Guinn | July 30, 2019

It’s the July 30th, 2019 Office Hours! Today, we’re all MMT’ers, or at least that’s the narrative in political space. But what about markets?

Children of a Lesser Narrative

By Rusty Guinn | July 29, 2019

Perhaps there is an emerging and cohesive narrative around the zombiefication effects of structurally low interest rates. As much as we’d like this to be the case, we think it has yet to really register.

We’re All MMT’ers Now

By Ben Hunt | July 25, 2019

If Trump is reelected in 2020, I think he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. They’ll be called Infrastructure Bonds.

If a Democrat is elected in 2020, I think she or he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. They’ll be called Green Bonds.

We’re all MMT’ers now.

The Patsy, Revisited

By Rusty Guinn | July 24, 2019

We all know we’re supposed to figure out who the patsy at the table is, but somehow everyone we see ends up being a straw man. Maybe fine in normal markets, but in periods of stress? If you don’t know who owns it, you don’t know anything.

So I got that goin’ for me

By Rusty Guinn | July 23, 2019

Everyone is right about buybacks. They’re good. They’re fine. They’re ethical. Oh, and they’ll be gone, too, if the industry doesn’t realize that it’s playing a metagame and not a parliamentary debate.

I’m Not a Raccoon! I’m the Lone Ranger!

By Ben Hunt | July 22, 2019

Price drives the transaction volumes of non-cash-flowing, non-productive things. Not the other way around.

There are prominent people at the intersection of Wall Street and crypto who know this to be true – who know that the “Yay, network effects!” narrative is BS when it comes to Bitcoin – but who promote the narrative anyway.

Why? Because they know that it’s narrative – even false narrative – that DOES drive the price.

The Only Winning Move

By Rusty Guinn | July 19, 2019

It’s privacy and big tech again in today’s Zeitgeist, which is all about mutually assured surveillance. And for Epsilon Theory, it hits home. I think it will hit home for you, too.

The Problem with Brussels Sprouts

By Rusty Guinn | July 17, 2019

Some things are only palatable when they have been transformed into a cartoonish version of themselves. For financial professionals that raises a moral question: how much emphasis on the cartoon of expertise about us is too much?

Mailbag: A Modern Vocational Curriculum

By Rusty Guinn | July 16, 2019

We get a lot of email and responses, but we REALLY got a lot about our comments on a curriculum that could replace the signaling-minded post-secondary degree industry. We publish them here.

We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat

By Ben Hunt | July 15, 2019

Financialization is not a mean-reverting phenomenon. It’s too good of a gravy train for Wall Street, corporate management and the White House to stop now. So they won’t. Like any self-respecting Great White shark, the Nudging State and the Nudging Oligarchy never stop swimming. They never stop eating.

Want to survive these financialized waters if you’re potential shark food? You’re gonna need a bigger boat.

When Did You Stop Beating Your Wife?

By Ben Hunt | July 12, 2019

“De Blasio’s ‘pay parity’ hypocrisy” is a feature article in today’s NY Post, and a central article in today’s media Zeitgeist.

Dig a little deeper into the “scandal”, and you learn that the “evidence” is complete horseshit.

It’s an article specifically designed to manipulate someone like me … someone who is VERY predisposed to believe the worst about Bill de Blasio because I dislike his politics SO MUCH.

It’s a rage engagement, one of two primary forms of Fiat News used to win the Game of You.

Election Index: Beyond the Debates – 6.30.2019

By Rusty Guinn | July 10, 2019

The first debates have come and gone, and winners and losers identified. Yet in narrative world, we see a slightly different story. We learn about it in the June 30th edition of Epsilon Theory’s Election Index.

The Upside Down

By Ben Hunt | July 9, 2019

Everything is topsy-turvy in the Upside Down of Stranger Things. That’s the Big Baddie in the picture above, known as the Mind Flayer.

Financial media is a Mind Flayer, too, especially when it comes to coverage of crypto and tech companies.