Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.
It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.
Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.
But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
Rust and Blight
In an orchard, it isn’t always easy to tell the difference between rust and blight. The same goes for our cultural institutions.
Some should be pruned.
Some should be ripped up root and stem.
It’s not always easy to know which. But if we want our sons and daughters to sit in the shade of our trees, we must learn.
The Long Now, Pt. 2 – Make, Protect, Teach
It’s time to start a fire. To burn, yes, but also to illuminate.
My advice? Abandon the political party as your vehicle for political participation.
My alternative? Find your Pack.
My platform? Make – Protect – Teach.
When Meta-Analysis Goes Meta
What does it mean when it becomes common knowledge that other investors are focused on evaluating common knowledge?
I’ve Got a Secret
Is there a bubble in passive investing? Honestly, I’m not even sure what that question is asking.
I DO think there’s a bubble in markets today – a behavioral bubble I’ll call ABB.
Always. Be. Buying.
And the Common Knowledge around passive investing is what blows this bubble. That’s MY secret.
The Industrially Necessary Egg
In modern farming and in modern investing, we have become prisoners of the monoculture. It’s efficient. It’s necessary for a mass society of ever-increasing Desire.
But here’s the thing …
In the investment monoculture, you’re not the farmer.
Gell-Mann Gravity
It’s the Monday Zeitgeist, including all known lanthanides and actinides.
LEEROY JENKINS!!!
There are four non-exclusive Occam’s-razorish explanations for Bill Dudley’s recent article inciting the Fed to get involved in the 2020 election:
A) Bill Dudley is a technocratic fascist.
B) Bill Dudley has lost his mind. In a sad clinical sense.
C) Bill Dudley is a MAGA sleeper agent.
D) Bill Dudley is Leeroy Jenkins.
When Non-News Becomes Fiat News
IT’S A DISASTER. IT’S A CATASTROPHE. IT’S A PERFECT STORM. It’s today’s Zeitgeist.
Office Hours – 8.27.2019
It’s the August 27th edition of Office Hours! In which political, economic and markets nihilism are the order of the day.
You Can’t Take It Back
Every morning, we run The Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central)…
My Dinner with Neel
I haven’t been very nice to Neel Kashkari.
But he was nice enough to engage in a twitter exchange with me the other day. Well, sort of.
Here’s a record of that exchange. I’ll leave it to you to decide who’s the prisoner and who’s the guard.
Nuke ‘Em From Orbit. It’s the Only Way To Be Sure.
Nuke the site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
It’s the best line from a movie full of them.
I couldn’t help but think about nuking inhuman monsters from orbit, when I read the PR releases from Prince Andrew and Les Wexner about their “relationship” with Jeffrey Epstein.
Food Innovation Meets Financial Innovation
Markets are boring. Hey, what if we securitized wokeness?
The World ‘Twixt Ought To and Is
Honest investing means finding a balance between approaches which imply we know everything and those which imply we can’t know anything. It means humility.
We think there are three – and only three – paths to finding this balance. One is the heart of what we are trying to achieve with Epsilon Theory.
Frauds and Traitors
Throwing words like “Fraud!” and “Traitor!” around so casually … it doesn’t reveal the true frauds and the true traitors.
It makes it easier for them to hide.
When Potato Salad Goes Bad
On Tuesday, the Macy’s narrative was “I think they can make their comps.”
On Wednesday, the Macy’s narrative was “I think they can cover their dividend.”
This is what it means for a narrative to go bad. This is what it means for a story to break.
And when a story breaks, so does the stock. Not just for a little while, but for a loooong time.
Just ask GE.
ET Election Index: July 31, 2019
This is the fourth installment of Epsilon Theory’s Election Index. Our aim with the feature is to lay as bare as possible the popular narratives…
Does It Make a Sound?
Wherever self-determination and resistance to the encroaching power of the state and oligarchical institutions find expression, there should our Full Hearts be also.
And our full voices.
I’m a Superstitious Man
“I’m a superstitious man, and if some unlucky accident should befall him — if he should get shot in the head by a police officer, or if he should hang himself in his jail cell, or if he’s struck by a bolt of lightning — then I’m going to blame some of the people in this room.” – Vito Corleone
Same.
The Nudging State and the Nudging Oligarchy cannot be defeated on a single point of failure like Jeffrey Epstein’s testimony at trial. Or like the bankruptcy of AIG.
But a million effin’ points of failure? A refusal to vote for ridiculous candidates and buy ridiculous securities? A refusal AT SCALE?
Yeah, that can work.
The Country HOA and other Control Stories
There are some stories that we will want to believe no matter how much contrary evidence we find, and no matter how much we know that the story is bogus. And when these stories convey a sense of control? All bets are off.