Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.
It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.
Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.
But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The Narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.
I’m not sure they’re ready for it.
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.
They’re telling you how to think about a fact.
Called It - Election Edition
Men of God in the City of Man is a nine part series about a narrative virus that infected the charismatic and Pentecostal churches in the United States. It isn't a story about Christian Nationalism. It isn't a story about January 6th. It isn't a story about why people voted for Trump. It is a story about a story. It is a story about the language that created a self-sustaining movement defined by its unwavering belief in a fundamentally corrupt electoral system.
Recent Notes
Guest Post – A Conservative’s Take on The Pack
Every now and then we come across an article or blog post that’s directly relevant to what we’re trying to say on Epsilon Theory, but is too big and thoughtful to be carved up for a Mailbag note or Zeitgeist post.
Make / Protect / Teach is a Big Tent.
Office Hours – 10.22.2019
In which Ben and Rusty discuss the three Ps of the narrative of a functioning government – and why their cartoons are being stretched to the limit.
The Stereogram
The NBA, Blizzard and others are in hot water after kowtowing to the Chinese government. America will have forgotten about both within weeks. But the awareness of just how long the CCP’s reach has become? That can’t be unseen.
Was That Wrong?
If Carl Icahn calls up the CEO of GM and asks her how the UAW talks are going, it is illegal for Mary Barra to tell him anything that she does not also tell everyone else.
If Carl Icahn calls up the President of the United States and asks him how the China talks are going, it is perfectly legal for Donald Trump to tell him whatever he likes without obligation to tell anyone else.
The Long Now, Pt. 3 – Wink
I believe that we are on the cusp of the Long Now becoming irreversible. Or at least irreversible without a cataclysmic Fall.
Why? Because they have mastered the art of stealing our tells. At scale.
Here’s how we start to confound the stolen tells. At scale.
To My Fellow Billionaires …
Marc Benioff, the billionaire CEO of Salesforce.com, says we need a New Capitalism … a kinder and gentler capitalism to rectify our modern culture of greed and massive wealth inequality.
Ray Dalio, the billionaire CIO of Bridgewater, says the same thing.
I think they’re both right.
I also think they should STFU.
ET Election Index (Candidates) – October 15, 2019
The 2020 Election Narrative is Identity. Through July, Bernie Sanders owned that narrative. That has changed. The on-narrative candidate is now Elizabeth Warren.
The Common Knowledge of Inflation
“Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven.”
That’s my fave Arthur Miller quote, from The Crucible.
Our Devil is inflation, and today we think him beautiful in Heaven. You’re not ready for the Fall.
In Chinese, the Emphasis is on the Second Syllable
Every US company with Chinese consumer-facing products is going to be forced to make a choice. Do you want to preserve your authenticity and your brand, or do you want to preserve your earnings guidance and share price?
Choose one. You can’t have both.
No one will believe me when I say this, but it’s the truth: this is bigger than tariffs.
Imagine That.
They keep us sick, you know.
They keep us hooked on this framing of something-something Republicans vs. Democrats.
The cure? Take back your distance.
You’ll find your local library to be the perfect place to start.
Fear Factor
Yeah, yeah … I know that the Deep State is a powerful adversary. Or at least that’s what my MAGA buddies on twitter keep shouting at me.
But I’ll take the Deep State as an enemy any day compared to Steve Schwarzman and the rest of the Private Equity Tong looking to keep their carried interest tax treatment.
I bet Elizabeth Warren feels the same way.
When the Product is Free, You’re the Product
This isn’t a note about Facebook. It’s a note about online brokerage fees. And it’s a note about Facebook.
As a consumer … don’t cry for Argentina, and don’t cry for the online brokerages who are taking their commission fees down to zero. As an investor in or an employee of ANY financial services company, on the other hand … maybe it’s time for a good cry and a hard look at your future prospects.
“Yay, free!”
The Emerging Market Zeitgeist is Broken
Yes, Deadwood is the greatest HBO series ever. Don’t @ me. I’m not having it. David Milch is MY President.
And while Al Swearengen is the greatest character of that greatest show, the fact is that it’s another character – George Hearst – who drives the narrative arc for the entire series (and movie).
You see, Deadwood is a show about property rights.
So is the Argentina – IMF show.
The Right Price of Money
Overnight repo is where the interest rates that central banks SET meet the interest rates that real economic actors USE.
So what happens when the setting of interest rates becomes a disembodied symbol of governmental will rather than a clearing price of money in the real world? This.
It’s a new common knowledge about central banks, and it changes EVERYTHING.
Politics Trump Economics Redux
It’s the most internally consistent Zeitgeist we have seen in 2019. And it just happens to be consistent with everything we’re reading in political / electoral news.
As Good Once As It Ever Was
What happens when profitless-growth-forever narratives start breaking?
We need a new drug.
Death in Slow Motion
The asset management industry has been dying a slow death for decades, but never seems to, you know, die.
Why?
Mailbag
As Bill Simmons used to say, “yep, these are my readers.” He meant it as a joke after a silly email, and that’s how I’ve used it in the past, too. But no silly or funny emails today. Just Clear Eyes and Full Hearts. Because … you know … can’t lose.
Yes, these are OUR readers, and this is OUR Pack, and this is OUR platform for thought and action in service to that Pack.
Watch from a distance if you like. But when you’re ready … join us.
Narrative is not a Disease. Narrative is Us.
Robert Shiller’s new book, “Narrative Economics”, will be out soon, and the publicity effort is kicking into gear. I am SO HAPPY that the rigorous study of narratives is finally being taken seriously, and grateful to Shiller for making that happen.
I am also SO DEPRESSED about how Shiller’s central metaphor, that narrative = infectious disease, will be used against us. Because the “cure” is the Nudge.
Sparks, Arcs and Trademarks
I’m not sure if electric buses are really a national security risk. Even if they are, I’m not sure characterizing them that way is really an escalation of the trade war into existential rhetoric land.
But it’s worth watching.