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First-Level Foolishness

By Rusty Guinn | March 12, 2020 | 2 Comments
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college, school, sports team and corporation made their decisions in unison once missionaries finally created common knowledge. Path-dependence is why uncertainty in markets should inform your portfolio risk management. The…

The Power of Neg

By Ben Hunt | November 21, 2018 | 6 Comments
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THAT GUY… The chess saying is “the best way to refute a Gambit is to ACCEPT it.” https://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/the_best_way_to_refute_a_gambit_is_to_accept_it_chess_adage I’m also the guy whose party trick is kicking your ass at…

The Curious Case of Candidate Sanders

By Rusty Guinn | January 29, 2020 | 5 Comments
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in the polls, moving from second to close second and finally into first place in Iowa (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html) while generally doing better at the national level as well (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html). Could this…

ET Pack Gathering #1 – Northeast US

By Rusty Guinn | July 3, 2019 | 1 Comment
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interested in talking ideas and enjoying good, genuine company. The first event will take place in our headquarters town of Fairfield, Connecticut. New England and Mid-Atlantic, this is your event….

Litigation Finance

By Bruce Packard | June 28, 2021 | 1 Comment
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in April 2019 and in August 2019, Carson Block of Muddy Waters led an attack on the company, calling it “a perfect storm for an accounting fiasco.” Block has made…

Why the Yankees Sucked in August

By Brent Donnelly | September 15, 2022 | 2 Comments
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weekly note on crypto, which you can subscribe to here. You can contact Brent at  bdonnelly@ spectramarkets .com and on Twitter at @donnelly_brent. As with all of our guest contributors, Brent’s post may not…

Office Hours Recap 03/24/2023

By Harper Hunt | March 28, 2023 | 2 Comments
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visitors organically discover new notes and make it so much easier to welcome newcomers to the fold. If you have any questions for Kevin, check out the Forum threads talking…

So I got that goin’ for me

By Rusty Guinn | July 23, 2019 | 22 Comments
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teams are rightfully concerned that return of capital characterized/structured as a dividend tends to impact value based on the common knowledge expectation of their consistency and continuation. This is a…

The Inevitable Afterbirth

By Rusty Guinn | February 4, 2020 | 9 Comments
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various comparisons of coronavirus to the flu and the common cold, especially by relating counting statistics of historical mortality. You can see this as the highlighted pink cluster below. Why…

Lord Make Me Chaste … But Not Yet

By Ben Hunt | December 24, 2018 | 9 Comments
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words: “we are watching carefully”. Watching US-China trade negotiations carefully. Watching the strength of the dollar and the weakness of commodities carefully. Watching EVERYTHING that Mr. Market is oh-so worried…

Control Point

By Neville Crawley | November 7, 2018 | 7 Comments
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iOS hardware integration creating a particularly powerful control point), through to application layer personal data collection – with Google and Facebook dominant. Clearly, application layer personal data collection is the…

Sanders in June: Polarizing…Except in Media

By Rusty Guinn | June 13, 2019 | 8 Comments
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socialism, the green new deal and related topics concerning universal health care, workers rights and unions, taxing the rich, etc. all occupy the most central, most connected part of Sanders’s…

The Promised Land!

By Ben Hunt | February 5, 2020 | 9 Comments
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facts and produce opinions about future conditions of socio-economic systems. Mostly these conditions are claimed to be bleak and existential. All of these clusters without exception are thinking of profiting…

Options

By Rusty Guinn | February 12, 2020 | 20 Comments
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see daily an affirmative, absolute denial of randomness. The very concept of disparate impact analysis, ‘social construct’ theory of gender, and inescapable topic du jour — income inequality, … etc,…

Covid-19 Cargo Cults

By Rusty Guinn | February 27, 2020 | 5 Comments
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water after you have finished listening. https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-hot-topic-podcasts/790-hot-topic-5-covid-super-spreader-stealth-pandemic Rusty Guinn Thanks for sharing this, Rafa. I’ll be sure to give it a listen today. Jane VanFossen Came home from Costco on…

From Pillar to Post

By Ben Hunt | October 14, 2020 | 0 Comments
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call behavioral economics. Savage played a critical role, albeit behind the scenes, in the work of three immortals of modern social science. He was John von Neumann’s right-hand man during…

The Zeitgeist | 2.26.2019

By Rusty Guinn | February 26, 2019 | 0 Comments
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The Current Cost of Climate Change: $650 Billion and Rising Rally in Cyclical Stocks Could Be a False Positive SE Asia Stocks-Most fall on trade deal uncertainty Aussie, NZ shares…

The Weekend Zeitgeist – 5.18.2019

By Rusty Guinn | May 18, 2019 | 3 Comments
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launch our ET Election Index in the coming days, while Biden is polling extremely well, the language used in discussions about Biden is among the least connected of any candidate…

Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor – 6.30.2019

By Rusty Guinn | July 6, 2019 | Comments Off on Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor – 6.30.2019
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where the stock market stands today and whether the tariff pain is priced in [CNBC] The Trump economy is starting to look more and more like the Obama economy [CNBC]…

Why Am I Reading This Now? 05.23.22

By Harper Hunt | May 23, 2022 | 0 Comments
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Labor topples conservatives; PM faces early tests apnews.com Why Louisiana’s maternal mortality rates are so high www.politico.com Ukraine wins 2022 Eurovision song contest as UK finishes second in Turin www.cnbc.com