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Stalking Horse

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2018 | 4 Comments
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…forced to take bets on the outcome of their hunt. Ishpreet modi https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/ilfs-fallout-amfi-asks-sebi-to-allow-side-pocketing-in-debt-funds-3131741.html Few things in this article which i can decipher based on reading episilon theory: 1) Accounting rules…

Why Hope?

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018 | 10 Comments
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…certainly is. So serious that the US War Department (later renamed Department of Defense) at one point took great pains to deconstruct such narratives: Don’t Be a Sucker (1945) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGAqYNFQdZ4…

The Madame Bovary Effect

By Ben Hunt | November 4, 2018 | 4 Comments
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…mmalon05 Reading the above, all I could think about was Mike McDermott and Joey Knish. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtYbZbdIIcI mmalon05 …and I just now realize that the previous article quoted was called “Rounders”….

Control Point

By Neville Crawley | November 7, 2018 | 7 Comments
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…we are moving in that direction. I’m a fan of the W3C verifiable claims data model as an underpinning standard that will help us to move there (https://www.w3.org/TR/verifiable-claims-data-model/), with much…

What’s Your Metagame? An Open Letter to the Crypto Community

By Ben Hunt | November 23, 2018 | 21 Comments
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…of the largest pools, with plenty of smaller ones also involved.https://www.blockchain.com/en/pools Threats of 51% attack could still exist if large miners were to collude and switch to the same mining…

Burn. It. Down.

By Ben Hunt | November 28, 2018 | 19 Comments
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…https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article222365010.html Rob H. If you really want to get depressed and see the inverse of the Epstein story, listen to Season 3 of the Serial podcast (https://serialpodcast.org/season-three/about ) which spent…

We’re Doing It Wrong

By Ben Hunt | December 4, 2018 | 6 Comments
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…guys might meanwhile like this: https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/03/flattened-disintermediation-goes-global/ Jane VanFossen Michael, thanks for the link. It’s a good one. John McCook Hi Ben, I think that many traders do not need to…

The Road to Tannu Tuva, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | December 19, 2018 | 5 Comments
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…the region for those interested. Sandy McIntyre How the narrative is being lost is best shown in this Ted Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/supasorn_suwajanakorn_fake_videos_of_real_people_and_how_to_spot_them?utm_campaign=social&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_content=talk&utm_term=technology Richard Feynman features in the talk. Mark Becker Thank…

Let Us Now Praise Famous Men

By Ben Hunt | January 2, 2019 | 7 Comments
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…decline in economic activity.” (full text here: http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2018Q3NP.pdf) As I write this, the spread languishes at 20 bps. So there you have it: Hunt vs. Hunt. You pays yer money,…

We Are All Epsilon Theorists Now

By Ben Hunt | January 6, 2019 | 18 Comments
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…shocks exert substantial nonlinear effects on asset prices, and their importance increases with the implementation of unconventional monetary policies.” In English? Since the Great Recession, central banks – especially the…

Run, Run, Pass

By Rusty Guinn | January 8, 2019 | 8 Comments
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…aren’t usually gamblers. For them its all about Expected Value and edge exploitation (See Borgata v. Phil Ivey – https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/ivey.pdf ). Most of them won’t bother playing any other games…

In the Trenches: As Good As It Gets

By Peter Cecchini | January 21, 2019 | 3 Comments
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…a low-inflation trap and wedded to conventional wisdom resorts to unconventional monetary policies, which are potentially ineffective and still poorly understood. https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/july-2016/neo-fisherism-a-radical-idea-or-the-most-obvious-solution-to-the-low-inflation-problem The Fed on its current path will reach…

But We Need the Eggs

By Ben Hunt | February 10, 2019 | 1 Comment
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…his other documentaries. Here’s a link to the trailer on YouTube and the relevant quotes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPaDD9dXkhU Herzog: Professor Karnow, do you actually believe in the monster? Karnow: Absolutely. I mean…

They Live!

By Demonetized | February 11, 2019 | 6 Comments
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…the concept. If you’ve seen the recent Netflix Fyre documentary, or the recent interview of Tim Pool on the Rogan podcast (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RJgFVbCx4Q) or seen the clickfarm episode on ‘Silicon Valley’,…

Gravity Sucks

By Rusty Guinn | February 22, 2019 | 6 Comments
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…from AP earlier this week for an example of the alarming language used to describe the risks of working with Huawei https://www.apnews.com/f373e15671884f35bbe085a131c59262. On the other side of the world, no…

Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

By Ben Hunt | March 3, 2019 | 12 Comments
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…you to an oldie-but-goodie ET note titled “It Was Barzini All Along” (https://www.epsilontheory.com/it-was-barzini-all-along/). The skinny here is that EM as an asset class is not an independent thing, but is…

In the Trenches: Command and Control

By Peter Cecchini | March 12, 2019 | 11 Comments
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…a crack-up boom. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/crackup-boom.asp Nicholas Allen Primary source material… on MMT? Do you have any specific recommendations? I’m always happy to read more history, particlarly economic history. I’ve done a…

The Grand Inquisition

By Demonetized | March 11, 2019 | 7 Comments
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…a heretic for saying the wrong words. And speaking of the Nudging Oligarchy – Econ Talk had a fantastically scary episode on a possible future of AI powered nudging…. http://www.econtalk.org/amy-webb-on-artificial-intelligence-humanity-and-the-big-nine/…

The Front

By Rusty Guinn | March 26, 2019 | 2 Comments
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…we had moved into a new world for news. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/magazine/the-aspiring-novelist-who-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html?_r=1 It used to be: News -> Reaction (personal) -> Spin -> Reaction (public). But now that the news bureaus have…

Send Lawyers, Guns and Money

By Ben Hunt | June 7, 2019 | 3 Comments
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Simons Chase Purchasing political cover is a key element of negative network effects -> Facebook’s Conduct Shows Not All Network Effects Are Positive https://www.lbs.co/blog/facebooks-conduct-shows-not-all-network-effect-are-positive Kpaz The swamp on digital steroids…….