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like trade or commerce … but as a symbol of failed confidence in Western central bank control over market outcomes. To both investors and China, gold is an insurance policy…

a complacent market, or it might indicate two sets of investors – one very complacent and one non-complacent – who see the world entirely differently. You have no idea what…

parcel of a business/credit cycle. This is driven by innate human greed (or as McCulley puts it, humans are naturally “pro-cyclical”), and tends to be exacerbated by deregulation or laissez-faire…

market-controlling Common Knowledge that market outcomes are the result of central bank policy rather than anything that happens in the real economy. How can you know if this Narrative starts…

with the power to determine economic outcomes. The Narrative around a particular Fed policy or Chair or regime will change and shift, just as the particular monarch sitting on a…

public misdirection and miscommunication as an acceptable policy “tool”. It’s telling when Jon Stewart, a comedian, is the most authentic public figure I know. It’s troubling when I have to…

policy with language that tries to misdirect, that tries to mask its true political face. Just as the US government communicates its monetary policy. Just as the Russian government communicates…

selection from one of those accompanying articles – “Why the Yuan’s Decline Matters” – not to criticize the author (I could just as easily chosen any number of other authors…

Fed”, acknowledging and promulgating the dynamic behind bad macro news driving good market news. It’s not necessary (and is in fact counter-productive from a Narrative construction viewpoint) to switch the…

if mildly disappointing macro data is all it takes to return to an “emergency” acceleration of the Fed balance sheet … that’s just sad. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15919/…

is a really big deal. Not because it’s the consensus outcome if you poll economists (consensus actually means very little for how the market plays the Common Knowledge game), and…

win the day. Is your individual knowledge and conviction level in Company X important for investing success? Absolutely, in exactly the same way that physical and psychological bravery is important…

appreciated is that Marx made a distinction between material production (all the stuff that we characterize as economic activity) and what he described as “mental production” – the creation of…

source of their authority. As for healthcare policy … the entire edifice of Obamacare has been presented as a self-consciously scientific, enlightened economic argument. This allows its political adversaries to…

security. Why? Because our collective fear of another Great Recession has created a social and political sanction for such a bureaucratic capture. And because these potential threats to economic security…

appreciation of all financial assets – beta – not the concentrated, zero-sum price appreciation of idiosyncratic securities. Because public confidence in the government’s control of public institutions like the market…

well, that seems like a rather poor policy choice. Stanley Kubrick crystallized the susceptibility of programmatic MAD to miscommunication and poor signaling in his classic movie Dr. Strangelove: Or How…

a clock ticking down the seconds to its release, I hope you hear that broadcast for what it’s really saying – Heeere comes Lucky! PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15798/…

outcome. That latter decision-making mistake, where individual characteristics are improperly inferred from aggregate characteristics, has a name. It’s an ecological fallacy, and it’s an inherent problem for every aspect of…