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you can read about it in two Epsilon Theory notes: “The Dude Abides: China in the Golden Age of the Central Banker” and “Rosebud”. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/16356/…
a cancer (or like a cure for cancer, depending on your perspective) into commodity-sensitive real-world companies and national economies. Eventually – and this is the Big Point – the divergence…
famous initiatives included the National Recovery administration (NRA) and the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), and the common thread in all of these efforts was a VERY active Narrative management embedded…
barking. The incessant and often silly focus on Fed “lift-off” is about to go on summer hiatus, which can’t happen soon enough for me. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/16329/…
any historical corollary of the past 60 years, which means that any investment conclusion based on those historical corollaries is almost certainly a category error, the worst possible methodological mistake…
, Rat). This new (Silence , Rat) outcome is an equilibrium because neither the Row player nor the Column player perceives a higher expected utility outcome by changing decisions. It…
is reflected in reduced investor confidence in the efficacy of fundamental market and macroeconomic factors to drive market outcomes. In other words, the rules of the investment game change when…
our government’s policy and our private sector’s policy on behavioral data collection without being accused of treason or (worse in some investor circles) socialism. I’d hope. But I’m not optimistic….
difficult. – Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke, “2001: A Space Odyssey” (1968) Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. – Arthur C. Clarke, “Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure…
the only risk-free rates left in the world. #5) Market complacency on Greece is a mistake. Not because Greece itself is a huge systemic threat, but because the same political…
bonds, and commodity contracts symbolize an economic commitment or ownership stake. A currency symbolizes government permission. It is a license. It is an exclusive license (which makes it a requirement!)…
and Woodrow Wilson sense of the word), which basically just means that they saw human political history as essentially cyclical and the human experience as essentially constant. Life is fundamentally…
follow, mostly local elections, but occasionally broader elections that impact my personal notions of political identity or justice. For the vast majority of political events, though, I’m really just watching…
have crucial facts get in the way of a dominant Narrative, now can we? And here’s another thing that’s true. That horrific “demand reduction” that OPEC is forecasting for 2015?…
oil prices will resume its pole position, and that’s problematic for the energy sector. Sorry, but I gotta call ‘em like I see ‘em. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/16201/…
sector stocks today? It’s not because they have a detailed cash flow model of the specific companies they’re selling and have calculated the incremental earnings impact of oil prices moving…
reference point might be from an economic history perspective, it’s been a very long time since we’ve seen such a very long period of such a non-strategic, we’re-all-in-this-together decision making…
(only) inside the human Jim Cramer, but also within the contract between Jim Cramer and CNBC, within the various humans who produce and executive produce the various shows on which…
…here we are. On the precipice of that breakdown in confidence. A cold wind of change is starting to blow. Can you feel it? PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/16168/…
from a master bureaucratic knife-fighter like Jens Weidmann, some disappointing macroeconomic news, and all of a sudden you’ve got a crisis in confidence with European markets. I’m reminded of the…