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telling me over whatever Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and the rest of our sell-side friends is pitching me. I’m not predicting. I’m observing. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/16154/…
State-directed “choice architecture” improves public policy outcomes by influencing our behavior through clever framing techniques. So if you want more organ donors, you require an opt-out choice rather than an…
Go on, try the eggs. They’re delicious. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher…
am doing a Good Job because my performance demonstrates convexity.” The concept of convexity is at the heart of Performance Above Replacement. Convexity? Woof … that’s a ten-dollar word if…
above. This is a prototypical “complacent” narrative network, where a substantial percentage of articles are unclustered, and the clusters that exist are distant from each other, tenuously connected, and on…
Macro funds, you will see this in models which — from a variety of econometric inputs — ended up with a consistent preference for higher carry currencies, especially certain emerging…
the macroeconomic “machine”, which at any given point in time reflects what other people call a “regime”…some combination of inflation and growth characteristics within a context of debt cyclicality to…
XKCD.com/904/ The larger meaning of the statements made on CNBC has absolutely nothing to do with specific investment advice or news. CNBC really could not care less about the actual…
is more commonly called decision-making – is not chaotic or illogical or counterproductive. On the contrary, it’s the finely honed product of millions of years of biological evolution and hundreds…
perspective of intellectual property. https://www.epsilontheory.com/pricing-power-pt-2-intellectual-property/ But also to date, Facebook has been really terrible at understanding narrative power from the perspective of government and the regulatory State. https://www.epsilontheory.com/pricing-power-pt-3-government-collaboration/ Now Amazon…
in price), Non-Risk (cash, Cds, T-bills, etc), and Anti-Risk (go up when risk/stocks go down…shorts, carry trade currencies, etc) assets. Client memories are short, forgetting their being down 15% in…
age of censorship. The Hays Code and the censorship office had more influence on the film industry than any actor, director, or producer ever could. They had full control over…
FTX/Alameda complex. Check out The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX for the basics of this thesis. Mr. Bankman-Fried, last week Anthony Scaramucci said that as…
trades to capture diversified risk premia when it is concentration which moves the needle? Some of it is certainly “commit to the shot”. “This is our diversification/concentration strategy, we’re sticking…
society’s success is instead the degree of corruption versus rule of law. Kleptocratic oligarchies deteriorate, regardless of the economic and political systems they work within. Kleptocratic oligarchical capitalist democracies deteriorate….
tried to offer some highlights, not a conclusive recap. My first action following the conference is to commit to a complete rejection of culture wars and mainstream media. I don’t…
local library to be the perfect place to start. https://www.epsilontheory.com/things-fall-apart-part-3-politics/ Make. Protect. Teach. It’s a reframing of our political lives, without the … you know … politics. https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-long-now-pt-2-make-protect-teach/ Imagine that….
trade pie and domestic political imperatives that accelerate that decline rather than reverse it. Competitive monetary policy is the Borg. First it swallows up currencies, because that’s what currencies are…
others into their orbit. It’s always really tough to predict one equilibrium over another as the outcome in a multi-equilibrium game, because the decision-making dynamic is solely driven by characteristics…
“reality” (all of those economic fundamentals and if-then statements of the Economic Machine) into actual human behaviors and actual investment outcomes takes place within a larger Machine of strategic communication…