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Salient and Other Just-So Origin Stories (by Jeremy Radcliffe)

By Ben Hunt | March 24, 2017 | 0 Comments
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the fundamental structure of how scientific research is conducted, and their foundation’s work has broad implications across the scientific spectrum, from nutrition to psychology. This thing goes deep, and it…

The Zeitgeist – 4.23.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 23, 2019 | 3 Comments
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Rail Projects May Give China More Deals [New York Times] According to a draft communique seen by Reuters, participants at this week’s summit will agree to project financing that respects…

A Conversation with Howard Marks

By Brent Donnelly | March 17, 2021 | 5 Comments
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HBUS, which is regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (“OCC”), the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and the National Futures Association, as a provisionally registered…

The Most Important Trading Decision

By Brent Donnelly | May 10, 2022 | 1 Comment
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gig at  bdonnelly@ spectramarkets .com and on Twitter at @donnelly_brent. Also, check out his substacks at https://50in50.substack.com/ and https://mtcbd.substack.com/. As with all of our guest contributors, Brent’s post may not represent the views of Epsilon Theory…

The Economic Perception Model

By Kyla Scanlon | August 2, 2023 | 9 Comments
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whole “we are in a recession” ideology, contrasted against the nostalgia cycle loop, through economic perception, bifurcation, and cynicism. Economic Perception So the figure below shows a pretty rough model…

The Changing Narrative of Women on Wall Street

By Ben Hunt | December 11, 2023 | 7 Comments
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Recently I was asked to give a talk at a conference focused on connecting female fund managers to institutional allocators, and I uncomfortably agreed. Uncomfortably because women need another 59-yo…

Mailbag: By Our Own Petard

By Rusty Guinn | December 7, 2019 | 2 Comments
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you start getting into documentation of more complicated calculations or beta adjustments to that net exposure, the execution/completion risk becomes overwhelming. Don’t get cute and include an ongoing update to…

O God, Make Me Humble

By Rusty Guinn | October 22, 2018 | 9 Comments
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direct purchases and have kept turnover incredibly low by using redemptions, excess income and the occasional equity buyout to rebalance (which has resulted in her buying low, selling high, overall,…

The End is My Beginning

By Sir Steven Wilkinson | December 18, 2023 | 1 Comment
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– the invention I suspect he revered most in pantheon of human technical achievements – to protect it from the weather onboard to calculate precisely where we were on the…

How to Live Safely in a Wall Street Universe

By Ben Hunt | March 31, 2019 | 7 Comments
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century. In my case, four years ago, I made an existential decision to leave a comfortable management position at a consumer retail company and make myself a developer in startup….

“Rebalance Timing Luck: The Dumb (Timing) Luck of Smart Beta” by Hoffstein, Faber and Braun

By Academic Research Author | August 17, 2020 | 0 Comments
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maximizing performance, so any rebalance choice from actively managed portfolios is an active decision with unmeasured risk. [4] The characteristics chosen to construct our factor portfolios were selected as these…

New ET Subscription

By JasonR | April 7, 2022 | Comments Off on New ET Subscription

NewET Intro Free Access to 2 new ET Premium notes per month. Access to ET Canon of 25 classic ET Premium notes. Regular emails on new content and research, including…

The Intentional Investor #32: Bryan Moore

By Harper Hunt | July 9, 2025 | 0 Comments
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The Intentional Investor is free for everyone to access. You can grab the mp3 file below, or you can subscribe at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vyhd_X4KtzU Bryan Moore, host of The Active Advisor Podcast…

Gravity

By Rusty Guinn | April 11, 2019 | 3 Comments
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and the Full Hearts response: https://www.epsilontheory.com/before-and-after-the-storm/ Here’s our examination of the specific existential narratives of this widening gyre, which are the primary engines creating political extremes from psychological distress. https://www.epsilontheory.com/even-when-i-lie/…

Children of a Lesser Narrative

By Rusty Guinn | July 29, 2019 | 3 Comments
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it barely registers. Still, it’s gratifying to see some emerging coherence around these ideas, even if the piece had to summon the spectre of a crash to fit the Zeitgeist….

Just a Fantasy

By Peter Cecchini | January 8, 2021 | 0 Comments
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same pain into November. [2] As of this writing, the Ossoff-Perdue race looks too close to call. [3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-democrat-proposes-annual-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-11554217383 [4] https://www.yodlee.com/many-americans-used-part-their-coronavirus-stimulus-check-trade-stocks [5] As I’ve noted, for many companies, ‘price’ will…

Inflation in the Twenty-First Century: A Circular Flow No Longer

By Kevin Coldiron | September 12, 2023 | 15 Comments
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completes the circle. The US government deficit, partly financed by Treasury purchases from abroad, puts money into the pockets of the US private sector, which then buys goods and services…

Locker Room Talk

By Niall Ridgley | April 30, 2025 | 8 Comments
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media complex. This is a story about public expectations and private accountability. It’s about cognitive dissonance between the media and the league, how players are treated and expected to act…

Cursed Knowledge #1: The Fast Saga

By Harper Hunt | June 21, 2021 | 11 Comments
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I’ll be thinking about the characters in the movie, how they are a product of the character (or ET in parlance cartoon) of the actor/actress and how contract plays a…

The Medium is the Message

By Rusty Guinn | November 30, 2021 | 11 Comments
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consume news. You consumed a curated publicly shared abstraction of curated reactions to curated reactions to curated reactions to curated reactions to an eleven-year old reaction to a mediocre social…