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The Medium is the Message

By Rusty Guinn | November 30, 2021 | 10 Comments
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consume news. You consumed a curated publicly shared abstraction of curated reactions to curated reactions to curated reactions to curated reactions to an eleven-year old reaction to a mediocre social…

The Lystrosaurus

By Rusty Guinn | June 17, 2020 | 12 Comments
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couple years now. We rang the bell here: https://www.epsilontheory.com/things-fall-apart-part-3-markets/ We rang the bell here: https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-fundamentals-are-sound/ And we rang the bell here: https://www.epsilontheory.com/in-summary-dec-22-dec-28-2018/ And while the uncertainty and opportunities of COVID-19…

No Time to Die: China Banks Edition

By Marc Rubinstein | October 7, 2021 | 5 Comments
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funds to state-owned companies to finance investment projects.  The reforms carved four new banks out of this set-up, each with a slightly different mandate. ICBC – the Industrial & Commercial…

Invisible Threads: Matrix Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 9, 2020 | 9 Comments
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visible dimensions like price and volume. But three massive structural shifts over the past decade – the concentration of investable capital within mega-allocators, the development of powerful machine intelligences, and…

Fidelity Reminds ETF Industry It Doesn’t Have To Care

By Dave Nadig | April 25, 2024 | 7 Comments
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Dave writes an excellent substack called Echo Beach where you can read this note and many others. You can contact Dave at dave.nadig@gmail.com and on Twitter at @DaveNadig. As with all of our guest…

Exigent Circumstances

By Peter Cecchini | April 16, 2020 | 9 Comments
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extraordinary policy actions (including company bailouts), the Fed has been using the Section 13(3)’s exigent circumstances exception to the specific direction provided for open market operations under Section 14 of…

Speak Now

By Rusty Guinn | February 1, 2019 | 8 Comments
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the cinema aren’t just a creative compromise driven by economics. The number of places where a person can travel and feel truly out of place, truly foreign, truly disconnected, has…

Core Curriculum

By Ben Hunt | April 28, 2014 | 0 Comments
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as much a social exercise in communication and coordination as language, and what linguists call Convention is what economists call Common Knowledge. I think that pretty much everything that Lewis…

American Bandstand

By Ben Hunt | January 19, 2014 | 0 Comments
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supporting all sorts of social science research by providing a fully-indexed electronic collection of cultural anthropological studies. The goal is to find patterns or commonalities in human social behavior, and…

RIP, Expertise

By Ben Hunt | December 30, 2021 | 0 Comments
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science tries to do. Observe, hypothesis, test, conclude, refine. Imperfect? absolutely! Got a better replacement? Let’s hear it. (besides conspiracy theories et al) We humans also prefer commitments and consistency…

The Projection Racket, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2020 | 28 Comments
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non-existent but still somehow inviolable social security trust fund? Everybody knows that everybody knows you can’t change social security. There are other such policies which reflect long-term commitments of the…

Notes From the Road: Roadkill

By Rusty Guinn | September 17, 2018 | 0 Comments
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of its growth characteristics, I’m concerned about this country because of higher-than-usual geopolitical risk) don’t really fit. Philosophies which are driven by views on the superiority of certain constructs (e.g….

Rounders

By Ben Hunt | September 30, 2015 | 1 Comment
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times when idiosyncratic company fundamentals and catalysts were actually attached to a company’s stock price. Builders build. Drillers drill. Stock pickers pick stocks. We can’t help ourselves, even if the…

The Zeitgeist – 4.24.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 24, 2019 | 3 Comments
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Say what you will about @jack, but he understands the necessary and sufficient condition for being a successful CEO today: create a Wall Street-supported non-GAAP narrative to describe your company’s…

The Goldfinch in Winter

By Ben Hunt | July 14, 2017 | 0 Comments
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Greenwich. But they love these Connecticut summers, and it’s not uncommon for me to count 30 or more flying around in a swarm that at times seems to be the animal…

Horsepower

By Ben Hunt | August 3, 2017 | 0 Comments
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of a tractor accident (or in my case, thankfully, near accidents) is always one of two things: overconfidence or distraction. The machines themselves are phenomenally robust and well-engineered, which means…

SchrΓΆdinger’s Portfolio

By Ben Hunt | August 3, 2013 | 0 Comments
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or perfect the calibration of our measuring instruments. Uncertainty is a fundamental property of our world, and the best we can achieve under any circumstances is an incomplete and probabilistic…

Upgrade To Paid Membership

By JasonR | January 5, 2022 | Comments Off on Upgrade To Paid Membership

the ET Forum, a vibrant community of thousands of subscribers. Direct access to Office Hours, a weekly live video call with Ben Hunt. Exclusive ability to comment on ET notes…

Notes from Camp Kotok 2021

By Brent Donnelly | August 27, 2021 | 4 Comments
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    https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/covid-consumer-headache#long CIDRAP:    Studies elucidate poorly understood Long COVID MIT:           Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics How will capitalism look post-COVID? A topic of some on-the-water conversation was the emotional, economic and societal…

The Zeitgeist – 4.11.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 11, 2019 | 0 Comments
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involved launching various types of new businesses, including for example travel, education, and e-commerce ventures. I think we need a third category for the “mourning pattern” of Dick Fuld. I’m…