Search Results: art of the deal
…get numbers like this unless you’re already in a recession. For example, here’s a chart of quarterly US export data since 1993. Now this chart is showing total value of…
…since. Once you start looking for this trope you see it everywhere, and even if it goes a little over the top at times in scripted media (anyone remember the…
…5-year chart of DXY – the trade-weighted dollar index. On the bottom is a 5-year chart of WTI crude oil spot prices. Does this look like an accidental relationship to…
…them false. They go along with the mega-institutions because they are, in fact, smart, successful people, but they haven’t taken the Party line into their hearts. When I started writing…
…start to blame your husband. You start to think about all those guys you’ve met in your life and what might have happened if you’d picked up with one of…
…an inflationary tax cut? Ummm … yep. That’s exactly what I mean. The entire article is an exercise in Narrative creation, facts be damned. The entire article is a wail…
…maintain cartel discipline within OPEC, there’s just too much non-cartelized money, technology, and political capital invested in US shale production to slow it down in this way. It’s the Bick Benedict /…
…and the Democratic Party have entirely embraced identity politics, because it works. It works to maintain two status quo political parties that have gerrymandered their respective identity bases into a…
Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven. – Arthur Miller, “The Crucible” It’s always about timing. If it’s too soon, no one understands. If…
…Edge” Whatever games are played with us, we must play no games with ourselves, but deal in our privacy with the last honesty and truth. – Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803-1882)…
…we have about what the other party believes, and vice versa – and it will almost always be the equilibrium outcome of a free-form strategic decision, particularly if we cannot…
…These articles almost never mention academic papers or Fed research. Today you can’t go a week without tripping over a prominent WSJ or FT article trumpeting this Fed publication or…
…party. But living with constant and overwhelming fear has changed the surviving driver’s psyche. He starts taking crazy chances driving the perfectly safe truck home, ultimately taking a turn way…
…“risk” and “uncertainty” interchangeably, and that may be okay for colloquial conversation. But it’s not okay for smart decision-making, whether the field is foreign policy or investment, because the process…
…deliberately – unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something. – Dick Butkus, Chicago Bears (1965 – 1973) Fortunately for a quarterback, you can play for…
…odds on a particular dog are wrong and present an asymmetric risk/reward opportunity, but if everyone else makes the same calculation that asymmetry vanishes (or reverses) in a heartbeat, usually…
…of major market participants are clearly shifting, particularly when monetary policy is both massively sized and highly experimental, particularly when political fragmentation is rampant within and between every nation on…
…Give Back Gains” soon afterwards. S&P 500 intraday chart, June 21, 2013 (source: Bloomberg) The response from major financial print media: At 10:15 AM the Financial Times published an article…
…a Prisoner’s Dilemma game with your tribe. Maybe you’ll crash the car in this particular game of Chicken and maybe your partner will rat you out in this particular game…
…political party in a mass society. A political party is a media company. By joining a status quo party and toeing that party line, you communicate an enormous set of…