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those findings, which can be tested across millions of data points across companies, markets and decades, lack robustness, how much more challenged are we in trying to scientifically and mathematically…
incident!! – John A lot of games of Chicken are won by accidental (or intentional) incompetence. For example, if I see that Kevin Bacon is stuck on his tractor and…
giggle>, economics <barely contained laughter> or sociology <full-on Dumb and Dumber bathroom scene-level belly laughter> that approaches psychohistory’s fictional robust stochastic framework for predicting the ebbs and flows of history….
of the sort. It’s a particular sort of truth, an ex cathedra pronouncement by cultists like Ben Bernanke and his academic acolytes, cherrypicking historical data about the U.S. in the…
the fundamental structure of how scientific research is conducted, and their foundation’s work has broad implications across the scientific spectrum, from nutrition to psychology. This thing goes deep, and it…
Rail Projects May Give China More Deals [New York Times] According to a draft communique seen by Reuters, participants at this week’s summit will agree to project financing that respects…
HBUS, which is regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (“OCC”), the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and the National Futures Association, as a provisionally registered…
gig at bdonnelly@ spectramarkets .com and on Twitter at @donnelly_brent. Also, check out his substacks at https://50in50.substack.com/ and https://mtcbd.substack.com/. As with all of our guest contributors, Brent’s post may not represent the views of Epsilon Theory…
Recently I was asked to give a talk at a conference focused on connecting female fund managers to institutional allocators, and I uncomfortably agreed. Uncomfortably because women need another 59-yo…
you start getting into documentation of more complicated calculations or beta adjustments to that net exposure, the execution/completion risk becomes overwhelming. Don’t get cute and include an ongoing update to…
direct purchases and have kept turnover incredibly low by using redemptions, excess income and the occasional equity buyout to rebalance (which has resulted in her buying low, selling high, overall,…
– the invention I suspect he revered most in pantheon of human technical achievements – to protect it from the weather onboard to calculate precisely where we were on the…
century. In my case, four years ago, I made an existential decision to leave a comfortable management position at a consumer retail company and make myself a developer in startup….
NewET Intro Free Access to 2 new ET Premium notes per month. Access to ET Canon of 25 classic ET Premium notes. Regular emails on new content and research, including…
maximizing performance, so any rebalance choice from actively managed portfolios is an active decision with unmeasured risk. [4] The characteristics chosen to construct our factor portfolios were selected as these…
and the Full Hearts response: https://www.epsilontheory.com/before-and-after-the-storm/ Here’s our examination of the specific existential narratives of this widening gyre, which are the primary engines creating political extremes from psychological distress. https://www.epsilontheory.com/even-when-i-lie/…
it barely registers. Still, it’s gratifying to see some emerging coherence around these ideas, even if the piece had to summon the spectre of a crash to fit the Zeitgeist….
same pain into November. [2] As of this writing, the Ossoff-Perdue race looks too close to call. [3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-democrat-proposes-annual-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-11554217383 [4] https://www.yodlee.com/many-americans-used-part-their-coronavirus-stimulus-check-trade-stocks [5] As I’ve noted, for many companies, ‘price’ will…
completes the circle. The US government deficit, partly financed by Treasury purchases from abroad, puts money into the pockets of the US private sector, which then buys goods and services…
I’ll be thinking about the characters in the movie, how they are a product of the character (or ET in parlance cartoon) of the actor/actress and how contract plays a…