Our brains evolved to tell stories before they evolved to speak.
This has fundamental implications for our susceptibility to communication in the networked age.
P&C insurer Lemonade (LMND) went public last year and now has a $5 billion market cap. They’re not just a sleepy insurance company, of course. No, no … they’re actually a cutting edge AI Company! TM.
They’ve deleted the tweet above and issued a classic non-denial denial on their blog:
Let’s be clear:
AI that uses harmful concepts like phrenology and physiognomy has never, and will never, be used at Lemonade.
We have never, and will never, let AI auto-reject claims.
LOL. So their AI Jim textbot + video recognition program (I am not making this up) isn’t using phrenology and it can’t auto-reject claims. No, no … the supervisor will reject the claim. BITFD.
— Ben Hunt | May 28, 2021 | 7:47am
Honestly, I kinda like Chamath-the-CNBC-talking-head. He’s iconoclastic and smart. A little too much Ben Shapiro / college debate team-esque with the “if I talk really fast maybe you’ll just ignore that jaw-droppingly stupid thing I just said”, but better than the usual CNBC fare regardless.
But Chamath-the-portfolio-manager? Raccoonery in action.
Here’s the Social Capital 2020 annual letter, published five months into 2021. There’s no mention of the disastrous year to date, which demands that you ask the core Epsilon Theory question: Why am I reading this NOW? But even taken on its own terms – hey, let’s talk about 2020 performance going into June, 2021 – this is just a complete crock.
Chamath describes his fund’s performance as “gross IRR” over aggregated multi-year periods. We have no idea of the fund’s performance in 2020, even in “gross IRR” terms, but are required to compare 2011-2019 average annual return to 2011-2020 average annual return. Then Chamath compares his “gross IRR” to S&P 500 total return over the same periods. Then he compares that to Berkshire Hathaway over “the first nine years” of the two investment funds. LOL.
The final picture below – a tweet I put out after a Chamath tweet storm in early March – highlights the rest of his Raccoon math.
When I think about all the compliance pushback I’ve gotten on investor letters and marketing decks over the years … when I think about all of the SEC and regulatory proctology exams my funds have endured … this just makes me so angry.
— Ben Hunt | May 27, 2021 | 10:25 am
Good chart out from Barclays this morning showing the key problem for investors and financial advisors as inflation fears take root: bonds no longer provide portfolio diversification.
— Ben Hunt | May 26, 2021 | 11:35am
An ET Pack member sent me this. Anyone else come across ads that directly call out inflation expectations? Would love to collect more screenshots like this!
— Ben Hunt | May 24, 2021 | 10:43 pm
The Bitcoin Is Art thesis that I put out back in 2015 (The Effete Rebellion of Bitcoin) and recently put forward again (In Praise of Bitcoin) is finding a lot traction recently in mainstream publications like Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. I don’t think I’ve ever started a Narrative snowball before … it’s a weird feeling!
They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I guess.
Bitcoin Is a Lot Like the Art Market (Bloomberg 5/21/2021)
Both cryptocurrencies and contemporary art rely on scarcity and hype because they have no other real value — though crypto has less price control.
Bitcoin Is More Modern Art or Religion Than Money (Bloomberg 5/21/2021)
Like a shark suspended in formaldehyde, it has value only if we believe it does.
Yes, Bitcoin Is Useless. Many Will Say: So What? (WSJ 5/24/2021)
Cryptocurrencies may ultimately have no intrinsic value, but humanity’s love for useless things means they aren’t necessarily worth nothing.
— Ben Hunt | May 24, 2021 | 7:10 pm
The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.
Inflation
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
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Crypto
Recent Notes
Chapter 5: The Axe that Never Was
Our brains evolved to tell stories before they evolved to speak.
This has fundamental implications for our susceptibility to communication in the networked age.
Chapter 4: Out of Eden
If we care about the influence of social networks on our minds, why are we talking about bipedalism and the 8 million year cycle of co-evolution it kicked off?
Because it defined how our young were parented, how we taught them, and what they were exposed to. Because it changed how our symbolic brains evolved.
Intentional Investor #19: Yuri Khodjamirian
Join host Matt Zeigler as he interviews Yuri Khodjamirian, Chief Investment Officer at Tema ETFs, in this captivating episode of The Intentional Investor. From his early years during the collapse of the Soviet Union to building innovative investment products today, Yuri shares his remarkable journey through the world of finance and entrepreneurship.
Chapter 3: Caliban’s Garden
Man’s road to becoming a storyteller began with a single step.
That step kicked off millions of years of co-evolution of the human brain, society, language – and our relationship with story.
Chapter 2: What is Story?
There are a lot of ways to define a “story.”
But to understand how story interacts with human consciousness requires us to be more specific.
Intentional Investor #18: Jason Buck
In this fascinating conversation, Matt Zeigler sits down with Jason Buck, co-founder of Mutiny Fund, to explore the unexpected intersections between entrepreneurship, risk management, and personal development. From selling mixtapes in rural Michigan to developing real estate in Charleston and ultimately founding an innovative investment firm, Jason’s journey challenges conventional wisdom about success and risk-taking.
Chapter 1: Overhearing Ourselves
Shakespeare invented the human by inventing a device which spoke the language of consciousness:
Story.
Introduction: David Bowie’s Alien
David Bowie was right.
Social networks aren’t a tool. They are an alien force that transforms human consciousness.
Making Sense of Markets in a Post Election World | Grant Williams and Ben Hunt
Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a “political utility” where “number go up” has become the prevailing faith.
I Think Representative Democracy is a Good Idea and We Should Give It a Try
I am 60 years old.
I am a (very) patriotic American.
I have never felt represented by any elected official.
Never.
Cursed Knowledge #30: The Road to Hell
The road to hell is paved with good intentions. But how often does that actually happen? Why do good intentions go so wrong? And what makes it so difficult to course correct? Those are the questions explored by Harper Hunt and Rusty Guinn in this episode of Cursed Knowledge.
Intentional Investor #17: Jared Dillian
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, host Matt Zeigler sits down with Jared Dillian – former Lehman Brothers trader, acclaimed newsletter writer, and author – for a captivating conversation about the unexpected paths that shape a life’s work. From his early days as a Coast Guard officer to becoming a Wall Street trader, and ultimately finding his voice as a writer, Dillian shares candid insights about his journey.
Walking Phnom Penh
Phnom Penh is a young city chock full of kids. They are everywhere, and they bring a positive energy, warmth, and joy that no amount of adult diversions — no amount of bars, casinos, exceptional cuisine, and museums — can replicate, because nothing warms the heart like a big smile from a tiny face.
I, Nazgûl
Being clear-eyed and full-hearted doesn’t mean being passive, weak, or silent.
It means resisting every effort to supplant our autonomy of mind with symbols of identity, no matter the source.
Intentional Investor #16: Remi Tetot
Join host Matt Ziegler as he sits down with Remy Tetot, the mind behind The Mad King newsletter and former co-founder of Real Vision, for a fascinating journey through the intersection of technology, finance, and personal growth. From washing dishes in Spain to revolutionizing financial media with Real Vision, Remy shares his remarkable story of constant reinvention. Learn how he transformed from a self-taught coder into a macro analyst under Raoul Pal’s mentorship, helped build Real Vision from the ground up, and navigated both spectacular successes and humbling failures in the crypto markets.
Apocalypse Always
Extreme language during election season isn’t anything new.
But this time it really is different. Our response must be different, too.
The Open Window
Creating two tightly bounded political extremes is NOT opening the Overton Window.
It just adds a second, equally closed window behind which all of our worst ideas can and will fester.
Remembering the Face of Your Father
For the past 28 years, since the death of my father, I’ve been hearing a steady tick-tock in my head.
How do we tell our stories to our children and our children’s children before it’s too late? Before we pass as all humans must pass?
Generative AI is a communion machine.
Intentional Investor #15: Brent Donnelly
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, host Matt Zeigler interviews Brent Donnelly, a veteran forex trader, financial writer, and mentor. Brent shares his fascinating journey from aspiring journalist to Wall Street trader, and how he eventually combined his love for writing and finance.
Cursed Knowledge #29: Allergies
Allergies. We either have them or know some one who does. Ranging from life threatening to mildly irritating, they’re one of life’s constant annoyances. And they’re getting worse. We have more allergies now than ever before. Rusty Guinn joins Cursed Knowledge to talk about why allergies are more common, and if there’s anything we can do about it.