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Crashing the Car of Pax Americana

By Ben Hunt | 85 Comments

I am desperately opposed to crashing the Pax Americana car, Annie Hall style, because the America First system that this Administration wants as a replacement is not a stable system that is possible as a replacement.

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 03.24.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 03.17.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 03.10.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.13.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.06.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



In Praise of Bitcoin

By Ben Hunt | 62 Comments

What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed Narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.

The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.

Recent Notes

Uttin’ on the Itz

By Ben Hunt

High hats and arrowed collars, white spats and lots of dollars Spending every dime, for a wonderful time If you’re blue and you don’t know…

Heeere Comes Lucky!

By Ben Hunt

“It is my understanding that the Constitution of the United States allows everybody the free choice between cheesecake and strudel.” – Sky Masterson (“Guys and…

It Was Barzini All Along

By Ben Hunt

“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” – Don Vito Corleone

Same with Emerging Market growth narratives. It was Developed Market monetary policy all along.

Shifting Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence

By Ben Hunt

The strong Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence, which solidified in late September 2012, is now clearly weakening in late August 2013. There are two strands…

The Narrative Shift around Emerging Markets

By Ben Hunt

The core Narrative around Emerging Markets is shifting away from growth and towards value. This is a profoundly disruptive development. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-shift-around-emerging-markets-august-21-2013.pdf (50KB)

Increased Instability in US Markets

By Ben Hunt

The Common Knowledge informational structure around the US market has weakened in recent weeks, making the risk/reward assessment of ALL exposures — long and short…

Schrödinger’s Portfolio

By Ben Hunt

“The world is given to me only once, not one existing and one perceived.” – Erwin Schrödinger “Quantum theory provides us with a striking illustration of…

The Framing of Macro Data

By Ben Hunt

A review of Narrative formation immediately after the July 31st release of Q2 US GDP data. epsilon-theory-the-framing-of-macro-data-july-31-2013.pdf (232Kb)

Rise of the Machines

By Ben Hunt

“Music, this complex and mysterious act, precise as algebra and vague as a dream, this art made out of mathematics and air, is simply the…

The Tao of Portfolio Management

By Ben Hunt

“Shape clay into a vessel; It is the space within that makes it useful. Cut doors and windows for a room; It is the holes…

The Market of Babel

By Ben Hunt

“But Achilles, weeping, quickly slipping away from his companions, sat on the shore of the gray salt sea, and looked out to the wine-dark sea.”…

The Music of the Spheres and the Alchemy of Finance

By Ben Hunt

“You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or…

How Gold Lost Its Luster, How the All-Weather Fund Got Wet, and Other Just-So Stories

By Ben Hunt

In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the Common Knowledge of the day.

Today our Common Knowledge is that gold is an insurance policy against central bank error.

The Matrix Reloaded — Seeing Markets as Informational Structures

By Ben Hunt

A review of current market informational structure one week post the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-matrix-reloaded-seeing-markets-as-informational-structures-june-27-2013.pdf (295KB)

2 Fast 2 Furious

By Ben Hunt

We are all impaled on the crook of conditioning. – James Dean (1931 – 1955) This note is a sequel to my letter from two weeks…

The Narrative Battle is Joined

By Ben Hunt

A review of Narrative formation efforts on June 21st to support the market. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-battle-is-joined-june-21-2013.pdf (227KB)

What’s the Opposite of ‘Green Shoots’?

By Ben Hunt

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-whats-the-opposite-of-green-shoots-june-20-2013.pdf (235KB)

Failure to Communicate, Part Deux

By Ben Hunt

A review of Narrative formation immediately after the June 19th FOMC announcement. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15677/

Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill

By Ben Hunt

The first ET note focused on Information Theory.

What We’ve Got Here Is … Failure to Communicate

By Ben Hunt

From the classic Paul Newman movie, Cool Hand Luke, as the Captain administers Luke’s punishment in the prison yard for yet another escape attempt:  Captain: You…

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 03.24.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 03.17.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.