The Trump administration has flipped between a half dozen distinct narratives telling us what these tariffs are really about.
Why? Because they needed to wrap the truth in a better story. Time to go Narrative Shopping.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.
Inflation
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
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Crypto
Recent Notes
The Fiat News Index
Common criticisms of the news media tend to focus on bias. But when it comes to learning to resist the unavoidable influence of narrative and Meme on our brains, our focus should be on how much we allow others to explain things to us. We’re working on tools to allow citizens to do exactly that.
Notes from the Diamond #4: Less Is More
Peer group comparisons are the primary measuring stick of both baseball GMs and investment PMs. Here’s how they are used and (more often) abused.
Infrastructure Week!
There’s a dog that didn’t bark in the midterm campaign. And its silence tells me a lot about where this country is going.
Hey, Maybe It’s the Needle
A good model isn’t just right. A good model has to be relevant. And in a world of abstraction and narrative, engaging in relevant ways demands much more of us.
Control Point
Neville Crawley, CEO of Kiva, returns to Epsilon Theory with “Rabbit Hole”, a regular series of notes on the nexus of government, society and technology.
Draft Day
We are wired to associate outcomes with the biggest single visible variance. This is a process-breaking flaw for general managers and portfolio managers alike.
ET In the News: Midterm Election Edition
A round-up of the most representative stories about the midterm elections between 9/30/2018 and 11/5/2018.
The Madame Bovary Effect
One way or another, boredom must be eliminated. It’s as much an iron law of markets as the impact of greed and fear. And it’s just as powerful.
You Are What Your Record Says You Are
It’s the defining quote for any performance-based social system, whether it’s football, politics, or markets. So let me ask you this: who owns your record?
Kings Unwilling
Humility is in short supply on Wall Street. But the humility! meme is not. Developing a process to understand the difference is important for any asset allocator.
Announcing Epsilon Theory Live
Ben and I are pleased to announce the launch of Epsilon Theory Live – our audio/visual supplement to the existing written Epsilon Theory content! Epsilon…
In the Trenches: A False Sense of Stability
In the first note from new Epsilon Theory contributor Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald, Peter gives us a window into what a false sense of stability may mean for investors heading into the end of 2018.
Insert XS Pun Here
The iPhone XS launch is attached to the strongest pre- and post-launch narrative of any September launch since the iPhone 6. Does that tell you how to trade it? No. Can it help you think about how different outcomes might shape your thesis – and the thesis you believe other investors are following? Yes.
Why Hope?
It’s easy to feel like we need more than hope to pass through troubling times, and it’s usually true. But sometimes hope is exactly what we need.
Stalking Horse
A stalking horse is a familiar shape that a hunter hides behind in order to get close to his prey. Once you start looking for them in markets, you will see them EVERYWHERE.
It’s Twue, it’s Twue!
Using facts in your analysis doesn’t make your analysis a fact. Punchy language that leans on these ‘facts’ doesn’t often stand up to scrutiny.
An Ocean of Indifference
Sometimes the absence of a clear central narrative can tell us something about a stock, too.
Oh, hell, Martha, go ahead and burn yourself if you want to.
I can’t advise you on the Answers. I won’t advise you on the Answers. But I will advise you on the Process. Because that’s what we do for our fellow pack members.
Innocent Monsters
The paradox of the Widening Gyre is that even when you’re right, you may be wrong.
Getting Out: A Godfather Story
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”
Vito got out. Michael never did.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.