Every so often, things fall apart.
In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.
From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.
Inflation
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed Narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
Sorry, we couldn't find any posts. Please try a different search.
Crypto
Recent Notes
Looking for Laffer-Likes
Complex systems and uncertainty influence us to look for something – anything – to hang our hat on. The problem? We’re prone to hang our hats on extrapolations of the rare facts we can find, many of which have no explanatory power at the margin, where markets live and breathe.
Building The Narrative Machine
Is it early days with the development of the Narrative Machine? Yes.
But not as early as you might think.
Eight crucial insights on how to incorporate Narrative data into an understanding of markets.
In the News | Week of 12.31.2018
Summary on most narrative-linked news of one announcing US company and this week’s December non-farm payrolls and unemployment updates.
Rock, Paper, Scissors
We’ve been doing it wrong with AI for too long. Time to do it right.
We can’t SOLVE for the future of complex social systems like markets or politics with algorithms. But we can CALCULATE the future of these systems with AI.
Lord Make Me Chaste … But Not Yet
The problem for markets today is not the Fed.
The problem for markets today is the guy in the White House and his game of Chicken with the world.
In the News | Week of 12.24.2018
With limited markets-related events next week, we instead highlight some of the most representative (and unique) reviews of 2018.
The Prediction Polka
We would usually tell you that all information is information. There is no good or bad. No right or wrong. But some things aren’t even information. Knowing what you can ignore is worthwhile.
Twilight of the (Consumer) Goods?
With increasing attention to trade and tariff narratives and falling attention to inflation and growth narratives in the U.S., we believe that investors may benefit from focus on sectors on which the latter narratives have weighed heavily in 2018. Of particular interest? Brand-oriented consumer stocks, especially many staples that have been left for dead.
The Road to Tannu Tuva, Pt. 1
When our processes of inquiry lack challenge, doubt and obsession with falsifying our best ideas, the result is inevitable. Our conclusions cease to be science and become something else entirely. That something else is a thing sensitive to narrative, vulnerable to priors and bias. That something else is scientism.
We Had The Same Crazy Idea
It is a frustrating truth that good – even great – investors rarely know exactly what it is that makes them good. And so the inevitable guilty pleasure of investors – building portfolios from the best ideas of their various managers and advisors – is almost always doomed to fail from the beginning.
Sin Boldly
There is very little that an investor can do to more easily become a better investor than to better understand his behavior. But the investor who relies on awareness, discipline and self-control remains susceptible to a world that seeks to influence his standard for correct behavior.
Notes from the Diamond #5: Wannabes Beware
Imitation is not only the sincerest form of flattery, it’s also the engine behind so much of what we do in both professional baseball and professional investing. The trick, of course, is not to get beaned in the process!
In the News | Week of 12.17.2018
Key articles for companies reporting the week of December 17, 2018, as well as the upcoming meeting of the FOMC.
Common Knowledge or Fortune?
Common knowledge effects, credentialing and missionaries are everywhere. You may differ in your view of their importance, but if your framework doesn’t acknowledge their role in price-setting, you’re not seeing the full picture.
In the Trenches: Bridge Out?
ET contributor Pete Cecchini, better known as Cantor Fitzgerald’s Chief Market Strategist, is back with the December installment of his series, In the Trenches. For ET readers who want a less philosophical but no less smart take on markets, Pete’s your guy.
Basically a Snake Don’t Have Parts
No matter how much you try to make mama tell you what part of the snake you’re eating, and no matter how much the answer might comfort you, it’s important to know that neither you nor she is telling the truth.
Topical Trends from Corporate Earnings Calls (12/2018)
As we’ve written a fair bit recently, the source of Narrative can often be as important as the stories being told themselves. By narrowing the…
Office Hours – 12.11.2018
Our December 11 edition of Office Hours has concluded, but subscribers can still catch the replay here.
Introduction to ET Professional
We are pleased to announce the launch of Epsilon Theory Professional, or ET Pro. It is a service designed to leverage our narrative research more directly for investors and asset owners. Learn more about the types of content and research we’re doing here.
You Don’t Have to Dance Every Dance
Discretionary investment always and in all ways boils down to two things: edge and odds. In the US-China trade war game of Chicken, you have no edge. And you don’t know the odds. Time to sit this dance out.