Every so often, things fall apart.
In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.
From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.
Inflation
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed Narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
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Crypto
Recent Notes
The Zeitgeist | 3.4.2019
The new Zeitgeist is here! Now with all the snippets and twice the snark.
Every morning, we run The Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world. They’re not the best articles – often far from it – but they will arm you for the Narrative wars of the day ahead.
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
Why are institutional investors in trouble with the new Zeitgeist of capital markets transformed into a political utility?
Because everything you think you know about portfolio diversification will fail. Because emerging markets are going to be crushed before this is over. Because everyone’s inflation-investing muscles have atrophied to the point of helplessness. Because you think long-vol and crisis-alpha are things.
The Zeitgeist | 3.1.2019
BATs vs. FAANGs, trading against institutions, trading with institutions, why Americans buy cars and a shocking J.C. Penney news bulletin.
In Praise of Work
The problem isn’t that we derive too much of our worth and value from work. The problem is that our jobs are becoming increasingly abstracted from work. Friends: Your work is holy.
The Zeitgeist | 2.28.2019
Lots of Blockchain, UK house prices subdued, trade talks weigh, idol worship perilous, a rich kid buys gold and why Nintendo goes back to Pokemon.
They’re Not Even Pretending Anymore
Now that Jay Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony has finished up, it’s time for a brief walk down Memory Lane.
As with everything else in our Washington clown show, nothing really changes. This has all happened before.
The Zeitgeist | 2.27.2019
A World Full of Elons, the unrevolutionary foldable era, the fastest strike in history and more arbitrary causal links in financial media.
The Zeitgeist | 2.26.2019
Markets ‘seek clarity’ on China/US trade, fire engine manufacturers, drug price hearings, and lowball hostile bids.
The Seed Delusion
The hobbyist farmer can afford to spread wildflower seeds to the wind and the elements. The professional farmer, on the other hand, doesn’t have this luxury. Neither do any of us as investors.
In the News | Week of 2.25.2019
Home improvement, midstream energy, travel and leisure, and the heart attack that wasn’t caused by energy drinks.
The Zeitgeist | 2.25.2019
A tariff three-fer, subsidizing orphans like it’s a bad thing, Buffett buffetted, and MMT/GND propaganda shifts into a new gear.
Pricing Power (pt. 3) – Government Collaboration
What killing active investment management? It’s not some monster hiding behind the rabbit. No, it IS the little white bunny. It’s the Zeitgeist of capital markets transformed into a political utility, innocuous on the surface … but with killer teeth.
How do you defeat the Zeitgeist? You don’t. The smart move, in fact, is to help the killer rabbit.
But there IS another way.
The Zeitgeist | 2.22.2019
Highs on trade hopes, mixed on trade talks, creepy refrigerators, CRM for Main Street and Insurance Love Stories.
Gravity Sucks
Usually we draw attention to narratives not because we like them, but because we believe investors can’t afford to ignore them. But the intense gravity of a directionless narrative is a different matter altogether.
The Zeitgeist | 2.21.2019
In which we focus on struggles and changes at asset managers, Soc Gen misses the boat, and markets ‘move’, ‘inch’ and ‘advance’ on trade optimism.
The Zeitgeist | 2.20.2019
Pesky stock analysts, an earnings season focus on power and energy, and a late run on descriptive terms for the China Trade negotiations.
In the News | Week of 2.19.2019
We’ve moved on to a motley crew on the back end of earnings season, with a couple noteworthy larger names: Walmart and Berkshire Hathaway.
ET Live – 2.19.19
We’re back with a third edition of ET Live! On the docket for this session: MMT and the Zeitgeist that brought it to the forefront of our political and economic discussions.
The Zeitgeist | 2.19.2019
In which we learn about new voices in the hospital, we pile on the Fed, and we exult in stocks “edging up” on trade talk progress (I’ve forgotten what take we’re on).
C.A.F.
The hardest job for any financial adviser is knowing when a fiduciary mindset should guide us to take a stand, and when it should guide us to adopting flexibility. If we claim to have a process, we have to have an answer for this.