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in 2013, when I was just starting Epsilon Theory, I would go around and give
talks to instituti
Lord Make Me Chaste … But Not Yet
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.
Ben, you’re still nuts. ; )
Merry Christmas.
An excellent piece helping to bring clarity to a rapidly changing market (and world).
Thanks Ben
A business that cannot accept a rate hike path to 3% is not a business, it is a time bomb
Source: https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1076891012298084357
“I know what it means to know something, and it’s hard.”
~Richard Feynman, physicist
I have not put in the 10,000 hours needed to form an educated opinion. For that matter, few have. Ben, it’s makes perfect sense to me but practicality and common sense is hard to come by these days…Happy Holidays!!!
Seconded.
I asked myself why would Stan came out in front of the CROWD and “pray” for the pause. My conclusion is that the more he emphasize “pause” the more fear the crowd would be and next day’s 500 dow move will become 1000 dow move if Powell do NOT pause. Maybe Alpha is scarce and Epsilon is the edge but to say Stan come out just to show people he “pray” does NOT feel right to me. He is doing something and that could be the common knowledge fear.
Perfect Twitter fight from Taleb for some shots across the bow to challenge conventional thinking…
Taleb…A Confession. When I usually don’t have skin in the game, I am usually dumb.
7- Perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”.
9- It is PRECISELY as a quant that I doubt “IQ”.
I’ve spent 34 years working w/“High IQ” quants. I’ve rarely seen them survive, not blow up on tail events.
Those high IQ who have survived like @financequant /Renaissance happen to be yuuugely street smart
10- Skin in The Game…shows that the only robust measure of “rationality” & “intelligence” is survival, avoidance of ruin/left tail/absorbing barrier, (ergodicity). Nothing that does not account for ability to survive counts as a measure of “intelligence”-- just philosophaster BS.
The Fed, Druck and Mnuchin Calling the Banks…put them all together and what do you get???
Now Playing: Jerome Powell as The Hard Man, in the drama “A Stranger Comes to Town”. Don’t forget the popcorn!
Hi Ben - Jason & Rusty think you’re nuts, but a nice kinda nuts. Grandfatherly. I mean, you keep asking the impossible questions: who does that? I keep wondering, though, if you should be chasing Chaos Theory instead of Epsilon Theory (although yours does sound better). Who benefits from all this chaos in the world? Can it really be one narcissistic individual, watching with glee as all the systems of the earth bounce around like a pinball machine? I don’t know, and maybe understanding is optional.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” ~ Mark Twain