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Inception
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.
I was hoping for time travel.
An incredible companion to Rusty’s “First The People” from yesterday. Especially timely given that I was planting flower bulbs with my daughter on Easter weekend in an area that was blighted by construction and then left barren. While she helped we talked all about the golden rule and how our flowers would start small but by doing something small, it would eventually be something large and beautiful.
This is… perfect, Ben and Rusty.
Some imo “commentary”:
There’s a lot of the stages of grief out there, and the path/process you lay out will be a way through. People are still at the stage of thinking they’ve lost something they had, because of a virus or politics, but they didn’t really have it. They had a narrative about something quietly shelved and lost a long time ago. The grief welling up now is all the more intense, I believe, because deep down they knew it was lost but couldn’t face it or articulate it. So in the absence of another way to deal with it, denial and anger and bargaining and depression are rampant.
Acceptance opens the path to building from the only foundation that will bring us to where we need to be - not “back to normal” but finally to the only place where survival is even possible - empathy, reciprocity, honesty and clarity.
I remember my “vaccination” too. As a young child (6 or 7 yrs old) I was surrounded by the stories of WW2, by refugees trying to start a new life in Canada. I knew the narratives well enough, but was too young for them to mean much. Then I remember I was on the floor, pulling books out of the bottom shelf of a bookcase in my parents’ bedroom. I’m not sure they even knew this one was there, but I pulled out a book of photographs (might have been by Wilhelm Brasse but I don’t recall) of the Nazi death camps. Piles of naked dead bodies. Haunted faces of the barely alive. SS driving women, stripped naked, through the streets like cattle - presumably to an oven or a rail car. I only remember the images, the faces, the silent sinking in of what the stories actually meant. These were people - faces I could recognize. I never told my parents or anyone. Just put the book back, and dreamt of the faces. It meant the stories of the Resistance weren’t comic book adventures - they were ordinary people who had seen all this, and were able to value community and honour and love to the point of sacrificing their comfort, their health, their lives, to say no.
I’ve lived a fortunate life since, like many of my generation, but I haven’t forgotten. I’ve never stopped working for my community. And I still remember the faces.
thank you Veronica
Ben, really cool & exciting stuff you’re talking about here. Do you have any expectations on how long the data gathering process will take before tomorrow arrives?
“Tomorrow we can simulate the life cycle of hypothetical narratives, and we can use that knowledge to take action in narrative-world…”
Dancing as fast as we can!
Make, protect, teach. I write a weekly newsletter about the railroad business and have been doing so for nearly 30 years. Most of my subscribers have been with me for most of that time. The purpose of my newsletter is to expose the myths of railroad management as described by the sell side analyst community and the railroad managers and to encourage my readers to look around and make up their own minds.
Grant Williams said it best on one of his Hmmminars this week. Nearly every news story you read in the paper is all about could, should, may be, ought not to be, and so on and nausea. That’s why he takes dim view of most of what he reads in the popular press. We need to deal with what IS.
With these words, Grant mirrors my perception exactly and I think he mirrors the general feeling of the pack. Keep up the good work promoting the Pack.
Ben, you and Danielle had a great conversation on Hedgeye, I think it was. Grant Williams has mentioned “Our Finest Hour” several times. I am impressed with your energy and dedication treating others as you would be treated.
Ben, thank you for putting it so straight forward. There’s a sense in Northern California that, because we lean left (whatever that means), that we don’t have as much impact as one would like (the Democrat/Republican Party answer has a lot to do with that). Do unto others as you would have them do unto you - like quarks, electrons, neutrons and protons, it’s the metaphysical building blocks of living a good life. It takes practice to live that way but, we can do it and from that, I believe, we will develop healthy, loving, effective narratives.
Thanks for your thinking.
Hey Ben,
Would you and Rusty be open to me sending “Inception” and “First the People” to my local Public Radio station (KQED)? I frequently listen to their Forum show hosted by Michael Krasny (https://www.kqed.org/author/mkrasny). Michael has a great reputation and a great following. Given what the two of you have been writing about it seems timely to try and connect you and Michael. Not sure they will pick up the recommendation but, I’m happy to put it out there to KQED as a long time subscriber and listener.
What say you???
Thanks,
And…The Transition to Palace Economy continues. All that is really happening is we are being “normalized” - being made more like the world.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-12/fed-says-it-will-begin-purchasing-corporate-debt-etfs-on-tuesday
As far as subverting this Brave New World; lets admit something. People want it this way - security, control, or control as the price of security, a price they paid unthinking.
Your problem is its defective, corrupt, and full of lies and iniquity,
You have no real problems with democratic socialism or democracy with a safety net, - is this not so?
You simply want better leaders ?
Less corruption?
More…Justice?
My Dear Sirs; get into power and you’ll find out the levers over men are force and gain.
Gain; money - and corruption.
Force- in a merciless Zero Sum exchange one man’s liberty is another man’s submission. At BEST they both remain capable of violence but sign a peace treaty called “The Law”.
Probably the best Law ever in this regard is the 2d Amendment.
The elites long enticed us with gain, really the ETFs purchases are Social Security for our 401Ks and other pensions. < just an example.
The other lever is force; very baby steps teensie weensie feelers that way now with COVID. This is tricky for the elites - unlike most aristocracies they excused themselves from danger over the last two or more generations.
Force is like your money, its best you handle it yourself. Otherwise people begin to get ideas, and why shouldn’t they? Worse in the current Boni class case- they have actively estranged they of the bloody hands, finding it as distasteful as dirty hands and of course morally outrageous.
In the end I agree with you- and the time of the current group of elites is passing, and they’re past their shelf life.
Just don’t be deluded that if we demand the same levels of comfort, security, protection that we won’t INSTANTLY replace incompetent corrupt tyranny with Competent corrupt tyranny.
If we want Freedom and choice we have to assume RISK,
And we don’t; we want our Bennies.
We’re already in Westworld Plato.
They want the shadows on the cave wall Ben. They don’t want the sun.
Its bright, hot, scary. Worse its not even there half the time.
Nope / they want a better cave, that’s all.