If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
Eric Markowitz shared this Nassim Taleb quote in The Nightcrawler last weekend and it’s rattling around in my head:
The more rational we become, the more blind we are to our own irrationality.
Nassim Taleb
You can reduce, simplify, and get everything fitting into your head all tidy-like.
All the numbers can add up. The i’s can be dotted and the t’s can look to be crossed.
Maybe it’s damn near perfect after a while.
And all it does is open you up to a bigger disaster.
There’s comfort in living with some mess.
I pretty much expect I am always in a bit of a mess. I don’t like to be surprised by it. The chaos is just there and that’s fine.
For example – I thought I had a whole week of posts scheduled out on Saturday this week.
Read more at cultishcreative.com
Engagement’s a trap. Or maybe it’s a myth. All I know is – it’s real, but it’s also not reality, and if you’re confused, you’re onto a truth that will set you (and whatever you’re creating) free.
Mike Cessario is the CEO/Founder of Liquid Death and, no matter how dumb you feel like the company is (or how amused you are by a CEO who wears Deicide shirts), he knows a thing or two about reaching an audience and inspiring action.
If you’re obsessed with comments, likes, and engagement rates, I need you to see this:
90% of people on social are passive observers who do not engage by clicking like buttons or posting comments. They treat social media the same way they treat their television: they sit back and watch the circus.
Mike Cessario, CEO/Founder at Liquid Death
Marketing extraordinaire Jack Appleby put that idea in my inbox this week (he was probably wearing a Taking Back Sunday shirt). It came on the same day I happened to be listening to Bob Pittman (MTV, Nickelodeon, basically the creator of my entire childhood education, and current CEO of iHeartMedia) get interviewed by Rick Rubin (who… same pitch). Bob was talking about the Spotify vs. radio stats and – just read this too:
Ad supported Spotify or ad supported Pandora reach about 20% of America. We reach 90%.
Bob Pittman, iHeartMedia CEO
More people listen to the radio today than did 10 years ago or 20 years ago.
Read more at cultishcreative.com
I am impossibly betting that sometime in 2002 I saw Atmosphere on the God Loves Ugly tour in the 300ish person room below Pearl Street in Northampton, MA. If you know otherwise, or if you gave me a ride there, or whatever, feel free to clarify. The internet has failed me in this regard.
And, more specifically, I saw Atmosphere, a bunch of Rhymesayers artists, and Mr. Dibbs.
DJs have always been fascinating to me. Mr. Dibbs included. The curation and choices and room-reading (and occasionally lack of room reading) fascinates me.
It was probably all the years in high school I spent playing for real money in cover bands in bars, relative to the time I spent playing for minimal door money in original bands in indie/all-ages clubs.
Getting a room to appreciate an original is really hard. It’s your art and it’s being judged. LIVE.
Now, copying an oldie but a goodie in a cover band, while easier and you have better odds of achieving audience approval, you still need to do something to either make it your own or strive for the level of mastery the original artist had.
I won’t turn this into a rant on my hatred for lazy cover bands. They exist.
But, I will take this back to my admiration for DJs who don’t have to play cover songs because they can play the source material. The best DJs can even make something special out of it. Originality in DJ routines is magic to me (and massively undercelebrated).
Read more at cultishcreative.com
Name Your Critic
The most paralyzing creative fear isn’t real criticism – it’s the imaginary collective judgment we carry in our heads. James Clear’s insight cuts through the fog: when you worry about “what other people will think,” you’re usually not worried about any specific person’s opinion. The moment you name the actual critic, you often realize you don’t respect their judgment anyway. This simple practice of naming your critic dissolves most creative paralysis because cruel critics usually reveal themselves to be people whose opinions don’t actually matter to your work.
The Raw File Approach to Networking: Morgan Ranstrom Returns TO JUST PRESS RECORD
We have a compression problem. AI and algorithms compress human experience the same way Spotify compresses audio files – technically functional but missing crucial data. Morgan Ranstrom’s insight about treating genuine conversation as “raw file” networking versus algorithmic compression explains why so many professional connections feel hollow. Real relationships preserve all the data: pauses, tangents, cross-industry pollination, and moments where ideas actually compound in real-time. Your Personal Archive matters because you’re building an uncompressed library of human experiences while everyone else accepts compressed files.
Grow Your Network: Morgan Ranstrom Is A Purposefully Thoughtful Advisor and Musician
Everything compounds – for you or against you. Morgan’s framework for intentional living centers on recognizing that neutrality doesn’t exist in personal development. His decision to trade Friday nights for Saturday mornings captures the profound challenge of right living: making choices today that your future self will thank you for, even when present benefits aren’t visible. The Napoleon tree story illuminates legacy thinking – planting trees you’ll never see requires ego reduction but creates the most lasting impact because it frees you from needing immediate validation.
Grow Your Network: Rupert Mitchell Is A Market Translator Who Turns Chaos Into Clarity
The greatest competitive advantage isn’t being in the thick of every battle, it’s having perspective to see patterns others miss. Rupert Mitchell’s transition from investment banking to independent research gave him something invaluable: distance that allows pattern recognition impossible under execution pressure. His celebration of generalism – from feeder cattle to SaaS companies to Japanese rice harvesters – isn’t scattered thinking but strategic diversity. Fresh perspectives reveal insights that specialists, trapped in expertise, completely miss. The transferable skills that matter aren’t technical ones that become obsolete, but human skills that compound across decades.
Read more at cultishcreative.com
Do you know Morgan Ranstrom? He’s a wealth advisor at Trailhead Planners, author, musician with Stone Arch Rivals, and someone who thinks deeply about compounding in all its forms – from right living to generational legacy.
If not, allow me to introduce you. Morgan combines financial planning expertise with a musician’s creative soul, and he’s written thoughtfully about the intersection of money, meaning, and multi-generational impact. I wanted to connect with them because they embody something I value deeply: the rare ability to see how everything compounds – relationships, habits, creativity, and wisdom – over decades.
Our conversation is LIVE now on the Just Press Record YouTube channel (and this Cultish Creative Playlist). Listen and you’ll hear us dive deep into time as a filter, the power of being a good ancestor, and why Morgan traded his Friday nights for Saturday mornings.
Read more at cultishcreative.com
Eric Markowitz shared this Nassim Taleb quote in The Nightcrawler last weekend and it’s rattling around in my head:
The more rational we become, the more blind we are to our own irrationality.
Nassim Taleb
You can reduce, simplify, and get everything fitting into your head all tidy-like.
All the numbers can add up. The i’s can be dotted and the t’s can look to be crossed.
Maybe it’s damn near perfect after a while.
And all it does is open you up to a bigger disaster.
There’s comfort in living with some mess.
I pretty much expect I am always in a bit of a mess. I don’t like to be surprised by it. The chaos is just there and that’s fine.
For example – I thought I had a whole week of posts scheduled out on Saturday this week.
Read more at cultishcreative.com
Engagement’s a trap. Or maybe it’s a myth. All I know is – it’s real, but it’s also not reality, and if you’re confused, you’re onto a truth that will set you (and whatever you’re creating) free.
Mike Cessario is the CEO/Founder of Liquid Death and, no matter how dumb you feel like the company is (or how amused you are by a CEO who wears Deicide shirts), he knows a thing or two about reaching an audience and inspiring action.
If you’re obsessed with comments, likes, and engagement rates, I need you to see this:
90% of people on social are passive observers who do not engage by clicking like buttons or posting comments. They treat social media the same way they treat their television: they sit back and watch the circus.
Mike Cessario, CEO/Founder at Liquid Death
Marketing extraordinaire Jack Appleby put that idea in my inbox this week (he was probably wearing a Taking Back Sunday shirt). It came on the same day I happened to be listening to Bob Pittman (MTV, Nickelodeon, basically the creator of my entire childhood education, and current CEO of iHeartMedia) get interviewed by Rick Rubin (who… same pitch). Bob was talking about the Spotify vs. radio stats and – just read this too:
Ad supported Spotify or ad supported Pandora reach about 20% of America. We reach 90%.
Bob Pittman, iHeartMedia CEO
More people listen to the radio today than did 10 years ago or 20 years ago.
Read more at cultishcreative.com
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
Oh Stewardess, I Speak Jive
Instead of a long-form note this Sunday, I thought I’d write a briefer note in advance of this Friday’s jobs report. I’ll be back next…
Yen Strengthens Below 102
There was a clear short-term narrative developed in the financial media last week creating a focal point at 102 in the Yen/USD exchange rate. The…
The Play’s the Thing
There has to be a middle ground between being a Cynic and a Fool, some way of playing the game without losing one’s soul. Recognizing that all of us human animals, including me and including you, are playing multiple multi-level games … well, that seems like a good start to me.
Flatland
To lose one parent, Mr. Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness. – Oscar Wilde, “The Importance of Being…
American Bandstand
Well, Dick, it’s got a good beat and you can dance to it. – standard response to Dick Clark’s “how do you rate this song”…
Parasite Rex
The most effective alpha-generating strategies are, technically speaking, parasites. I say this with love and admiration.
Adaptive Investing: What’s Your Market DNA?
In 1837 on page 36 of his so-called “B” notebook, Charles Darwin wrote the words “I think” followed by the first depiction of an evolutionary tree.
The rest, as they say, is history,
The Construction of Robert Capa
I went to the Democratic Convention as a journalist, and returned as a cold-blooded revolutionary. – Hunter S. Thompson Some people will say that words…
Whatever It Takes
A few observations on what to look for in the language of the FOMC announcement tomorrow from a game theoretic perspective. Ever since Mario Draghi…
The Stuka
The Fed is now playing the Common Knowledge game openly and directly, making public statements through their media intermediaries to tell you how ALL market…
A Dogmatic Slumber
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH WAR IS PEACE. – George Orwell, “1984” SECRETS ARE LIES SHARING IS CARING PRIVACY IS THEFT. – Dave Eggers, “The Circle”…
The 18th Brumaire of Janet Yellen
One of the more painful lessons in investing is that the prudent investor (or ‘value investor’ if you prefer) almost invariably must forego plenty of…
When E.F. Hutton Talks
If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. – Barack Obama Of course, one objective of both traditional and nontraditional policy…
The Wages of Fear
You don’t know what fear is. But you’ll see. It’s catching, it’s catching like small pox! And once you get it, it’s for life! So…
Poindexter Über Alles
Recent papers written by Fed functionaries and the attendant media attention serve as a reminder of the academic and bureaucratic capture of the Fed. More…
A Game of Sentiment
PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15830/ I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows…
Render Unto Caesar
There are two sides to the Epsilon Theory coin — looking at market-shaping current events through the lens of game theory and history, and looking…
What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits
The central banks of the West announced today that their temporary swap lines would be made permanent. Like QE itself, the meaning of this emergency…
The Koan of Donald Rumsfeld
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are…
The Levelers
Mr. Incredible: You mean you killed off real heroes so that you could *pretend* to be one? Syndrome: Oh, I’m real. Real enough to defeat you! And…