If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Modeling common knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
When Does the Story Break?
Margaret Bourke-White took this photo of the Garment District in 1930. Every single person on the street is wearing a hat. How did THAT behavior change over time? How did the common knowledge that All Men Wear Hats change?
Answer: the Common Knowledge Game.
Equity Volatility-of-Volatility Falls to All-Time Low
1M implied volatility on the VIX fell to an all-time low last week. Generally speaking, this means that options on short-term market volatility increasing have…
All that Glitters
I’ve received a lot of questions over the past few weeks about Russia and the Ukraine, and why I don’t include this flashpoint in my…
The Risk Trilogy
A trilogy is a pretty abstract notion. You can apply it to almost any three things. – Jonathan Demme Mozart: So then you like it?…
Core Curriculum
I distributed this Epsilon Theory reading list last summer, but it never made it to the website. Given the volume of requests I receive for…
The Business of Epsilon Theory
I started the Epsilon Theory project nine months ago with the publication of a “Manifesto” and an email to a few hundred friends and colleagues.…
The Adaptive Genius of Rigged Markets
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was – Talking Heads, “Once in…
Beta Earthquake
One of the things I like to keep my eye on when I’m puzzling out what’s going on in the market are the specific company…
The King is Dead. Long Live the King.
Le roi est mort, vive le roi! – French proclamation as coffin of old king is placed into burial vault of Saint Denis Basilica. The…
Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World
Apocalypse Now (1979), based on “Heart of Darkness” by Joseph Conrad Kurtz: Did they say why, Willard, why they want to terminate my command? Willard:…
Two Shifting Narratives
Two brief observations on incipient shifts in powerful Narratives … First, China. The pleasant charade that recent currency intervention was nothing more than an effort…
Surely You Can’t Be Serious
The Secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that you’ve got it made. These are my principles, and if you…
Panopticon
The Panopticon: a new mode of obtaining power of mind over mind, in a quantity hitherto without example. – Jeremy Bentham
But the guilty person is only one of the targets of punishment. For punishment is directed above all at others, at all the potentially guilty. – Michel Foucault
Rosebud
Question: Mr. President, a clarification if I may. The people who were blocking the Ukrainian Army units in Crimea were wearing uniforms that strongly resembled…
Two Quick Points
Two quick Epsilon Theory points before the jobs report tomorrow. First, remember the Goldilocks Narrative of the post-Great Recession Era…slow growth keeps the Fed in play, so…
The Power of Why, Exhibit 4,512 in a Continuing Series
No man is an Iland, intire of it selfe; Every man is a peece of the Continent, a part of the maine; If a Clod…
Don’t Fear the Reaper
Buck Finemann, seventy two years old. Cantankerous old geezer. No-one liked him much, but they allowed him to play poker with them once a week…
Goldilocks and the Dog That Didn’t Bark
Det. Gregory: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in…
Oh Stewardess, I Speak Jive
Instead of a long-form note this Sunday, I thought I’d write a briefer note in advance of this Friday’s jobs report. I’ll be back next…
Yen Strengthens Below 102
There was a clear short-term Narrative developed in the financial media last week creating a focal point at 102 in the Yen/USD exchange rate. The…