If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
Dogs, Dog Food, and the Curse of Some Talent
The thing is, Butch, right now you got ability. But painful as it may be, ability don’t last. You came close but you never made it. And if you were gonna make it, you would have made it before now.
We Were Soldiers Once … And Young
Two emails from soldiers, both asking questions that I can’t answer alone. We need a pack.
When Good Words Go Bad
Sometimes the meanings of words change. Sometimes that doesn’t mean anything. Sometimes it does.
Why Am I Reading This NOW? 10/12/2018 Edition
A brief selection of stories from my daily news routine that made me wonder: “Why am I reading this now?”
Complacency and Concern in Robo-Land
When it comes to robo-advisors, there is a wide gulf between common knowledge within the industry and without. I’m not sure what that means yet, but it means something.
The Narrative Giveth and The Narrative Taketh Away
The growing strength and coherence of Narrative Machine visualizations show the creation of powerful common knowledge around inflation, where everyone knows that everyone knows that inflation is rearing its very ugly head.
Notes from the Diamond #2: Until the Truth Comes Out
Part 2 of a multi-part series that seeks to enhance readers’ deployment of both human and financial capital through the exploration of parallels between money management and professional baseball.
Gell-Mann Amnesia
“Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
Et in Arcadia ego
Your time horizon is not infinite. Your institution’s time horizon is not infinite.
Punting and the Tyranny of Risk Memes
The purpose of Meme and narrative is getting us to sit down and shut up. In the investment committee room, no kind of meme does this more effectively – and more counterproductively, than the risk meme.
How to Lose the Game of You
Your autonomy of mind and spirit cannot be taken away by the State, the Oligarchy or the Mob. But you can give it away. Don’t.
The Italian Job
I wrote “Finest Worksong” in September, 2014 (reprinted below). Here’s the money quote: At some point in the not so distant future there will be…
Mailbag: Deadly. Holy. Rough. Immediate.
Responding to a reader query about the relationship between risk and return, and whether its theoretical foundation is still solid.
The Red King Is Us
A cat may look on a king, ye know! — Proverbs and Epigrams of John Heywood (1562) Ben’s note: I wrote The Red King in…
Why Am I Reading This NOW?
On October 4, 2018, Bloomberg BusinessWeek published a story claiming that Chinese hackers were able to “infiltrate America’s top companies” by planting a spy microchip…
Surprisingly Geometric
Whenever something is surprisingly geometric, it’s probably a good idea to take a step back and ask why. And even when we find some supporting truths, it’s a good idea to keep asking.
The Power of ‘AND’, and the Walmartization of Advice
Behold, the Walmartization of Advice. It will lead to better outcomes for many investors. AND it will lead to worse outcomes for some.
We are Second Foundation Partners
Epsilon Theory began in the spring of 2013 as a series of emails I wrote to myself and a few colleagues, trying to make sense…
Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose
What to DO when Things Fall Apart. How to make your way in a fallen world, where the electorate is polarized, the market is monolithic, and everyone seems to have lost their damn minds.
It’s not an Answer. It’s a Process.
From Thugs to Douche Bros: the Evolution of the Surveillance State
The Russians managed their surveillance state with banal thugs. We’re building our own surveillance state in America and throughout the West, managed not by thugs but by our own version of banal evil – the douche bro.