If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
The Zeitgeist | 1.18.2019
Today it’s Morgan Stanley, the price of rice, Morgan Stanley, the art of AI and a bit more Morgan Stanley.
Modern Monetary Theory or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the National Debt
Modern Monetary Theory is neither modern nor a theory. It’s a post hoc rationalization of politically expedient policy that makes us feel better about all the bad stuff we’ve done with money and debt in service to Team Elite.
And all the bad stuff we’re going to do in the future.
The Zeitgeist | 1.17.2019
The Zeitgeist for January 17th: China, ‘no inflation’, advice from Bogle, and another day, another cannabis headline.
ET Live – 1.15.2019
ET Live! is now in the books for January, but you can catch the replay here.
Navigating the Discovery Map
At the suggestion of one of our friends and subscribers, we wanted to provide what we think are some of the best launch points for exploration of the newly published Discovery Map. The only question: do you want to explore topics in depth or see the connections between them?
In The News | Week of 1.14.2019
A busier than usual week, as first quarter earnings season kicks off for banks and airlines. A few other notables in tech and energy, as well.
Shikaka!
In this news cycle, if an issue sticks around for more than a week, you can be sure that it isn’t by accident. It’s because it represents an abstraction, and because those in influence like how that abstraction changes our behavior.
You Are Here
The greatest risk to your portfolio is a change in the zeitgeist. A change from deflation to inflation. A change from cooperative international games to competitive games. A change from capital markets to political utilities.
I think it’s all happening.
The Alembic
Distillation isn’t a process of concentration. It isn’t a natural progression. It is a violent changing of the underlying thing. So, too, is portfolio construction.
Run, Run, Pass
It’s easy to convince ourselves that the opposite of being Narrative-driven is being data-driven. This is a lie. The most common way that narrative influences our behavior is through unadorned data, presented with the unstated implication that it is necessary, sufficient and explanatory.
Rabbit Hole: Mathematical Toys, Moral Injuries, and Odes to the Hack
Neville’s favorite links from recent months, including an interview with a collector of mathematical toys and an ode to the hack.
We Are All Epsilon Theorists Now
I found this photo from Friday’s presser, when Jay Powell was asked to describe how much credibility he has now.
JK. But also, LOL.
In the News | Week of 1.7.2019
Three reporting companies this week. The most-connected articles include an odd weed obsession among media and analysts, and a…rather unfortunate Delta experience.
A Game of Them
When it comes to politics and social media, making up straw men about our enemies to make them look ridiculous seems like good entertainment. But beware embracing amusing-but-wrong cartoons in zero sum games.
Epsilon Theory Discovery Map
Introducing the Epsilon Theory Discovery Map – a novel way to navigate the Epsilon Theory archives, not based on chronology or author, but based on connectivity, similarity and consistency in the underlying narratives.
Let Us Now Praise Famous Men
We are living in a Golden Age of corporate management competence, driven by the adoption of process technologies and minimax regret strategies. That’s not going to stop in 2019, and it has major implications for your portfolio strategy.
Audacity
Some resolution season advice for young professionals who would become successful professional investors without becoming charlatans – a task easier said than done.
Looking for Laffer-Likes
Complex systems and uncertainty influence us to look for something – anything – to hang our hat on. The problem? We’re prone to hang our hats on extrapolations of the rare facts we can find, many of which have no explanatory power at the margin, where markets live and breathe.
Building The Narrative Machine
Is it early days with the development of the Narrative Machine? Yes.
But not as early as you might think.
Eight crucial insights on how to incorporate Narrative data into an understanding of markets.
In the News | Week of 12.31.2018
Summary on most narrative-linked news of one announcing US company and this week’s December non-farm payrolls and unemployment updates.