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In the Trenches: A False Sense of Stability

By Peter Cecchini | November 2, 2018 | 0 Comments

In the first note from new Epsilon Theory contributor Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald, Peter gives us a window into what a false sense of stability may mean for investors heading into the end of 2018.

Insert XS Pun Here

By Rusty Guinn | November 1, 2018 | 3 Comments

The iPhone XS launch is attached to the strongest pre- and post-launch Narrative of any September launch since the iPhone 6. Does that tell you how to trade it? No. Can it help you think about how different outcomes might shape your thesis – and the thesis you believe other investors are following? Yes.

Why Hope?

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018 | 10 Comments

It’s easy to feel like we need more than hope to pass through troubling times, and it’s usually true. But sometimes hope is exactly what we need.

Inflation Monitor – 10.31.2018

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018 | Comments Off on Inflation Monitor – 10.31.2018

After several months of increasing cohesiveness around an inflation-is-coming Narrative, attention to the topic has been tapering in early Q4Right now we think this has…

Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor – 10.31.2018

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018 | Comments Off on Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor – 10.31.2018

The Narrative of coordinated global central banking policy has been restrained for an extended period, including most of 2018. After a brief rise along with…

Trade and Tariffs Monitor – 10.31.2018

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018 | Comments Off on Trade and Tariffs Monitor – 10.31.2018

While it is only a single data point, our October attention measure rose from its very low base over the prior three months. Our aggregate…

US Fiscal Policy Monitor – 10.31.2018

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018 | Comments Off on US Fiscal Policy Monitor – 10.31.2018

After climbing as usual (and, we think, in more muted fashion) in connection with mid-term elections, attention to US Fiscal Policy narratives ticked down modestly…

Credit Cycle Monitor – 10.31.2018

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018 | Comments Off on Credit Cycle Monitor – 10.31.2018

While articles including key credit terms continued to rise in October, their internal coherence continued to fall. This means that stories tended to cover individual…

Stalking Horse

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2018 | 4 Comments

A stalking horse is a familiar shape that a hunter hides behind in order to get close to his prey. Once you start looking for them in markets, you will see them EVERYWHERE.

It’s Twue, it’s Twue!

By Rusty Guinn | October 30, 2018 | 7 Comments

Using facts in your analysis doesn’t make your analysis a fact. Punchy language that leans on these ‘facts’ doesn’t often stand up to scrutiny.