Honestly, you could replace 90% of the daily news with a collection of Mitch Hedberg one-liners.
“People either love me or hate me … or they think I’m okay.”
Our modern addiction? Fiat News.
It all started with the Maestro, Alan Greenspan, and his determination to create a Great Moderation. And it was all going so swimmingly, too, until the Great Disaster of 2008.
Now that there’s so little central banks can do, they are dead set on preventing another downturn before it even starts. So how does risk ‘price’ in capital markets when the cost of capital is constantly set too low? It doesn’t.
Today’s Zeitgeist is about winning when we’re losing, the polarizing power of hyperbole, more on SRI/ESG, a wonderful specimen of the Mad Creditor Letter and a less-wonderful specimen of the Obligatory Press Release.
Everything about the Zeitgeist is working to steer promising minds toward cultivating the skills and temperament needed to succeed in a Fiat World. We are creating a generation of missionaries.
Just one small problem: a competitive game among missionaries is a stag hunt. The dominant strategy for each of us individually is bad for us all. So what the hell do we do?
The Nudging State and Nudging Oligarchy believe they are giving us a gift: Freedom from Choice.
Except that it is neither a gift nor freedom in any sense. Rejecting it isn’t always easy and it isn’t always costless. But it’s the only choice for anyone who would be free.
Today’s Zeitgeist is about crashes on crashes, Nplpalooza 2019 and hunger-striking ruined property tycoons.
But mostly we celebrate the hedge fund industry’s effort to shake off last year’s challenges. From all of us, thank you for this gift of what we will just assume is uncorrelated alpha.
Where are we in March, 2019? We’re seeing a resurgence in the Narrative and policies associated with a good old fashioned beggar-thy-neighbor currency competition.
Also, here’s our summary of where we think we are in each of the five evergreen macro issues of markets – inflation, central banks, trade and tariffs, US fiscal policy, and the credit cycle.
A Weekend Edition of the Zeitgeist, where we turn from financial markets to find the narratives and stories from the last week or so that were most connected to common narratives in culture and politics.
Climate change! Secretive boards! A gazillion dollars! Boat Race Bank!
Wait…Boat Race Bank?
It’s the Zeitgeist on Epsilon Theory, where we all knew we were living in a world of Fiat News. We just needed to refocus on fundamentals.
We are immersed 24/7 in a Fiat World, where we are TOLD that inflation does not exist, where we are TOLD that wealth inequality and meager productivity and negative savings rates just “happen”, where we are TOLD we must vote for ridiculous candidates and buy ridiculous securities and borrow ridiculous sums.
We’re not Flat Earthers. Ha Ha! Those guys are idiots! Can you imagine believing that stuff?
No, we’re not Flat Earthers. We are Fiat Earthers.