Could the German situation get worse? Of course it could. Have we had a “Lehman moment” yet? No, we have not. But I don’t think we are that far away from a Lehman moment in Germany, after which further bets on the system breaking down become much less attractive as existential system risk grows much higher. I don’t think we are that far away from a Tepper moment in Germany, where risk/reward asymmetry becomes infinitely skewed to going long for those who are going to be wiped out if the system fails anyway.
These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 08/19/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.
This is how we resist The Long Now, how we find an alternative world to the endless present where the Party is always right. By connecting the human past to the human present to the human future. By carrying the fire of our own stories in our own words across the weave of time and space. By building an ark and an arc.
This is my faith.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.
In times of profound informational need – like today when we *really* need to know if inflation is embedded in the real economy – we are desperate for data that will allow us to act with conviction. But the nature of our macro data construction guarantees we will get less accurate results during these times where we need accuracy the most.
As the kids would say, it’s just math.
These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 08/05/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.
ET contributor Brent Donnelly went out and asked some people he respects what advice they would give kids heading off to college. Here’s what he found.
The total value of the Chinese residential property sector is approximately $60 trillion – twice the size of the US residential market and bigger than the entire US bond market. Bigger than the entire US stock market, too.
It is … ummm … having a moment.