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ET Pro Geopolitical Conflict Monitor

A Brief History of the Past 10,000 Years of Monetary Policy

By Ben Hunt | October 5, 2022 | 56 Comments

What we saw happen in the UK last week is the first shock, not the last, and all the massive pension funds and asset owners who have turned themselves into shadow hedge funds, full of swaps and leverage through the sweet whispers of Wall Street Wormtongue, will be our undoing.

Cursed Knowledge #14: In Defense of Marie Antoinette

By Harper Hunt | October 3, 2022 | 1 Comment

Marie Antoinette has a rather interesting historical footprint. For all that her image is iconic and her reputation infamous, it’s not all the truth. The real Marie Antoinette has been lost to the Cartoon of Marie Antoinette™. So I want to show you a glimpse at the real person behind the cartoon and take a closer look at how her cartoon got started.

Office Hours Recap 9/30/2022

By Harper Hunt | October 3, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 09/30/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

Why Am I Reading This Now? 10.03.22

By Harper Hunt | October 3, 2022 | 0 Comments

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.

Why Am I Reading This Now? 09.26.22

By Harper Hunt | September 26, 2022 | 0 Comments

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.

Monetary Policy is Non-Linear

By Ben Hunt | September 22, 2022 | 137 Comments

The relationship between interest rates and inflation is non-linear and non-monotonic, and in exactly the same way that the Fed was unable to spur inflation by cutting rates to exceptionally low levels, so will they be unable to contain inflation by hiking rates off these exceptionally low levels.

The Fed first has to get interest rates to this monotonic tipping point before further interest rate hikes will have any appreciable effect in the real economy.

Waiting for Godot

By Ben Hunt | September 21, 2022 | 0 Comments

The math that drives 2023 dovish hopes on Wall Street and the White House is this: string 12 months of constant +0.2% month-over-month CPI readings together, and your CPI will end up at 2.43%.

Here are 4 consequences of policy makers waiting and hoping this comes to pass.

Cursed Knowledge #13: Subverting Censorship

By Harper Hunt | September 20, 2022 | 8 Comments

The Golden Age of Hollywood was full of drama. On and off screen. It was the age of carefully cultivated images. Fake names and secret procedures. And it was the age of censorship. The Hays Code and the censorship office had more influence on the film industry than any actor, director, or producer ever could. They had full control over what Hollywood made. Well, almost. There were still a few loopholes left to exploit.

Office Hours Recap 9/16/2022

By Harper Hunt | September 19, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 09/16/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

Why Am I Reading This Now? 09.19.22

By Harper Hunt | September 19, 2022 | 0 Comments

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.