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Epsilon Theory In Full

Epsilon Theory In Full

 

The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.

Notes from the Diamond #2: Until the Truth Comes Out

By David Salem | October 11, 2018 | 2 Comments

Part 2 of a multi-part series that seeks to enhance readers’ deployment of both human and financial capital through the exploration of parallels between money management and professional baseball.

Gell-Mann Amnesia

By Ben Hunt | October 10, 2018 | 5 Comments

“Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”

Et in Arcadia ego

By Rusty Guinn | October 10, 2018 | 4 Comments

Your time horizon is not infinite. Your institution’s time horizon is not infinite.

Punting and the Tyranny of Risk Memes

By Rusty Guinn | October 9, 2018 | 0 Comments

The purpose of Meme and Narrative is getting us to sit down and shut up. In the investment committee room, no kind of meme does this more effectively – and more counterproductively, than the risk meme.

How to Lose the Game of You

By Ben Hunt | October 9, 2018 | 3 Comments

Your autonomy of mind and spirit cannot be taken away by the State, the Oligarchy or the Mob. But you can give it away. Don’t.

The Italian Job

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments

I wrote “Finest Worksong” in September, 2014 (reprinted below). Here’s the money quote:  At some point in the not so distant future there will be…

Mailbag: Deadly. Holy. Rough. Immediate.

By Rusty Guinn | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments

Responding to a reader query about the relationship between risk and return, and whether its theoretical foundation is still solid.

The Red King Is Us

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments

A cat may look on a king, ye know! — Proverbs and Epigrams of John Heywood (1562) Ben’s note: I wrote The Red King in…

Why Am I Reading This NOW?

By Ben Hunt | October 7, 2018 | 12 Comments

On October 4, 2018, Bloomberg BusinessWeek published a story claiming that Chinese hackers were able to “infiltrate America’s top companies” by planting a spy microchip…

Surprisingly Geometric

By Rusty Guinn | October 7, 2018 | 0 Comments

Whenever something is surprisingly geometric, it’s probably a good idea to take a step back and ask why. And even when we find some supporting truths, it’s a good idea to keep asking.

The Power of ‘AND’, and the Walmartization of Advice

By Rusty Guinn | October 6, 2018 | 5 Comments

Behold, the Walmartization of Advice. It will lead to better outcomes for many investors. AND it will lead to worse outcomes for some.

We are Second Foundation Partners

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | Comments Off on We are Second Foundation Partners

Epsilon Theory began in the spring of 2013 as a series of emails I wrote to myself and a few colleagues, trying to make sense…

Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | 20 Comments

What to DO when Things Fall Apart. How to make your way in a fallen world, where the electorate is polarized, the market is monolithic, and everyone seems to have lost their damn minds.

It’s not an Answer. It’s a Process.

From Thugs to Douche Bros: the Evolution of the Surveillance State

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | 0 Comments

The Russians managed their surveillance state with banal thugs. We’re building our own surveillance state in America and throughout the West, managed not by thugs but by our own version of banal evil – the douche bro.

A Game of You

By Ben Hunt | September 30, 2018 | 1 Comment

We’ve reached a new height (depth, really) of what I call “mirror engagement” on social media. If you don’t see yourself in the Missionary you follow, you get mad. How dare you not reflect my views!

Schrödinger’s Senate Hearing

By Ben Hunt | September 28, 2018 | 0 Comments
The cat isn't dead OR alive. It's dead AND alive.

Most people confuse Schrödinger’s Cat with the Observer Effect. It’s a lot weirder and more important than that. In the Widening Gyre of our political dialogue, it is a powerful illustration of we live in completely different realities.

Notes from the Diamond #1: Always Something New to Learn

By David Salem | September 26, 2018 | 0 Comments
Yazstremski waits for the bounce.

Part 1 of a multi-part series that seeks to enhance readers’ deployment of both human and financial capital through the exploration of parallels between money management and professional baseball.

Deadly. Holy. Rough. Immediate.

By Rusty Guinn | September 26, 2018 | 5 Comments
Stephen Fry and Mark Rylance engaging in Immediate Theatre

It’s hard to be larger than life in a smaller than life world. It’s hard to be authentic in your art without being artificial. Good theatre does just that. We’re hoping to do the same in Epsilon Theory.

Missionary Body Language

By Ben Hunt | September 26, 2018 | 0 Comments
Donald Trump Pointing at You

Google “[name] + finger pointing”. Odds are, there are several shots of that politician shaking his or her finger at you, admonishing you with body language to LISTEN UP, BUB. Because that’s what a Missionary does to create Common Knowledge.

The Chinese Panoptistate

By Ben Hunt | September 25, 2018 | 0 Comments

A Twitter user coined the term “Panoptistate” to describe what China is doing with its social data monitoring effort. It’s a good opportunity to revisit the classic ET note about the Panopticon.