Epsilon Theory In Full
The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.
Part 2 of a multi-part series that seeks to enhance readers’ deployment of both human and financial capital through the exploration of parallels between money management and professional baseball.
“Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
Your time horizon is not infinite. Your institution’s time horizon is not infinite.
The purpose of Meme and Narrative is getting us to sit down and shut up. In the investment committee room, no kind of meme does this more effectively – and more counterproductively, than the risk meme.
Your autonomy of mind and spirit cannot be taken away by the State, the Oligarchy or the Mob. But you can give it away. Don’t.
I wrote “Finest Worksong” in September, 2014 (reprinted below). Here’s the money quote: At some point in the not so distant future there will be…
Responding to a reader query about the relationship between risk and return, and whether its theoretical foundation is still solid.
A cat may look on a king, ye know! — Proverbs and Epigrams of John Heywood (1562) Ben’s note: I wrote The Red King in…
On October 4, 2018, Bloomberg BusinessWeek published a story claiming that Chinese hackers were able to “infiltrate America’s top companies” by planting a spy microchip…
Whenever something is surprisingly geometric, it’s probably a good idea to take a step back and ask why. And even when we find some supporting truths, it’s a good idea to keep asking.
Behold, the Walmartization of Advice. It will lead to better outcomes for many investors. AND it will lead to worse outcomes for some.
Epsilon Theory began in the spring of 2013 as a series of emails I wrote to myself and a few colleagues, trying to make sense…
What to DO when Things Fall Apart. How to make your way in a fallen world, where the electorate is polarized, the market is monolithic, and everyone seems to have lost their damn minds.
It’s not an Answer. It’s a Process.
The Russians managed their surveillance state with banal thugs. We’re building our own surveillance state in America and throughout the West, managed not by thugs but by our own version of banal evil – the douche bro.
We’ve reached a new height (depth, really) of what I call “mirror engagement” on social media. If you don’t see yourself in the Missionary you follow, you get mad. How dare you not reflect my views!
Most people confuse Schrödinger’s Cat with the Observer Effect. It’s a lot weirder and more important than that. In the Widening Gyre of our political dialogue, it is a powerful illustration of we live in completely different realities.
Part 1 of a multi-part series that seeks to enhance readers’ deployment of both human and financial capital through the exploration of parallels between money management and professional baseball.
It’s hard to be larger than life in a smaller than life world. It’s hard to be authentic in your art without being artificial. Good theatre does just that. We’re hoping to do the same in Epsilon Theory.
Google “[name] + finger pointing”. Odds are, there are several shots of that politician shaking his or her finger at you, admonishing you with body language to LISTEN UP, BUB. Because that’s what a Missionary does to create Common Knowledge.
A Twitter user coined the term “Panoptistate” to describe what China is doing with its social data monitoring effort. It’s a good opportunity to revisit the classic ET note about the Panopticon.