Epsilon Theory In Full
The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.
In our November 2018 update to the Fiat News Index, we review some topics that media outlets are even happier than usual to tell us how to think about.
There are three reasons a person becomes a liar: he believes that he must, he believes that he may, or he believes it serves a Greater Truth.
In the Common Knowledge World, we lose the ability to distinguish between what we think and what we think we think. It’s Fiat Thought, and here’s how you beat it.
The emphasis of asset owners on private assets investments is meta-stable – robust to a lot of potential changes in market environment. The reason? The deals! Meme.
Every idea has a story, but the story is not the idea. Stories are born, they live, and they die. But if the idea is powerful enough, it can find a new story and be reborn. Crypto must find a new story.
It’s an invitation to explore a joint research program, as described in TFA3. It’s an invitation to share ideas on liberty, resistance and technological advancement. It’s NOT an invitation to share ideas about money.
To our readers, to our supporters, to our engaged commenters, and to the people who have compared Epsilon Theory to drinking paint, a word: thanks.
It’s an old chess saying: “The easiest way to defeat a gambit is to refuse it.”
But that’s just the start of a successful metagame.
I don’t know what the Fed should do in December. But I do know how financial media (and Donald Trump) want you to think about what they should do in December.
“What do you mean you don’t make side orders of toast? You make sandwiches, don’t you?”
Bobby thinks he has lots of choices, but really he only has one.
We’re all Bobby today.
Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.
How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.
When something becomes as necessary, accepted and right-sounding as ‘process’, it can be tough to tell the difference between the Cartoon and the genuine article.
A quick note on no-coiners, people (like me) who have never owned Bitcoin, but have just watched from afar. We’re being played. Not to buy Bitcoin, but to obey the logic of the flock.
Our brains’ responses to memes are mostly existential – fight or flight. We can’t turn off these responses. But we can train our behavior to question them.
I don’t know that any investor’s mean expectation for Amazon ought to have moved an inch. But should a poorly played metagame change investors’ probabilistic outlook? I think so.
In the construction of Fiat News, it’s the choice of facts and the choice of words that preserve the power to make us feel. Because that’s the only thing that really matters – how do the words make you FEEL?
With technology, even totalitarian surveillance technology, there typically is no ‘big bang’, just a bunch of independent systems coming on line, getting networked together, and then a tipping point. We’re there with China.
How can US household net worth continue to outpace US economic growth if the Fed won’t play ball with easy monetary policy? History shows another way to keep the party going