All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

Don’t Fear the Reaper

By Ben Hunt | February 23, 2014 | 0 Comments

Buck Finemann, seventy two years old. Cantankerous old geezer. No-one liked him much, but they allowed him to play poker with them once a week…

Goldilocks and the Dog That Didn’t Bark

By Ben Hunt | February 13, 2014 | 0 Comments

Det. Gregory: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in…

Oh Stewardess, I Speak Jive

By Ben Hunt | February 6, 2014 | 0 Comments

Instead of a long-form note this Sunday, I thought I’d write a briefer note in advance of this Friday’s jobs report. I’ll be back next…

Yen Strengthens Below 102

By Ben Hunt | February 3, 2014 | 0 Comments

There was a clear short-term Narrative developed in the financial media last week creating a focal point at 102 in the Yen/USD exchange rate. The…

The Play’s the Thing

By Ben Hunt | February 2, 2014 | 0 Comments

There has to be a middle ground between being a Cynic and a Fool, some way of playing the game without losing one’s soul. Recognizing that all of us human animals, including me and including you, are playing multiple multi-level games … well, that seems like a good start to me.

Flatland

By Ben Hunt | January 28, 2014 | 0 Comments

To lose one parent, Mr. Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.  – Oscar Wilde, “The Importance of Being…

American Bandstand

By Ben Hunt | January 19, 2014 | 0 Comments

Well, Dick, it’s got a good beat and you can dance to it.  – standard response to Dick Clark’s “how do you rate this song”…

Parasite Rex

By Ben Hunt | January 12, 2014 | 0 Comments

The most effective alpha-generating strategies are, technically speaking, parasites. I say this with love and admiration.

Adaptive Investing: What’s Your Market DNA?

By Ben Hunt | January 5, 2014 | 3 Comments

In 1837 on page 36 of his so-called “B” notebook, Charles Darwin wrote the words “I think” followed by the first depiction of an evolutionary tree.

The rest, as they say, is history,

The Construction of Robert Capa

By Ben Hunt | December 22, 2013 | 0 Comments

I went to the Democratic Convention as a journalist, and returned as a cold-blooded revolutionary. – Hunter S. Thompson Some people will say that words…

Whatever It Takes

By Ben Hunt | December 17, 2013 | 0 Comments

A few observations on what to look for in the language of the FOMC announcement tomorrow from a game theoretic perspective. Ever since Mario Draghi…

The Stuka

By Ben Hunt | December 9, 2013 | 0 Comments

The Fed is now playing the Common Knowledge game openly and directly, making public statements through their media intermediaries to tell you how ALL market…

A Dogmatic Slumber

By Ben Hunt | December 1, 2013 | 0 Comments

FREEDOM IS SLAVERY IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH WAR IS PEACE. – George Orwell, “1984” SECRETS ARE LIES SHARING IS CARING PRIVACY IS THEFT. – Dave Eggers, “The Circle”…

The 18th Brumaire of Janet Yellen

By Ben Hunt | November 24, 2013 | 0 Comments

One of the more painful lessons in investing is that the prudent investor (or ‘value investor’ if you prefer) almost invariably must forego plenty of…

When E.F. Hutton Talks

By Ben Hunt | November 17, 2013 | 0 Comments

If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. – Barack Obama Of course, one objective of both traditional and nontraditional policy…

The Wages of Fear

By Ben Hunt | November 10, 2013 | 0 Comments

You don’t know what fear is. But you’ll see. It’s catching, it’s catching like small pox! And once you get it, it’s for life! So…

Poindexter Über Alles

By Ben Hunt | November 7, 2013 | 0 Comments

Recent papers written by Fed functionaries and the attendant media attention serve as a reminder of the academic and bureaucratic capture of the Fed. More…

A Game of Sentiment

By Ben Hunt | November 3, 2013 | 0 Comments

PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15830/ I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows…

Render Unto Caesar

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2013 | 0 Comments

There are two sides to the Epsilon Theory coin — looking at market-shaping current events through the lens of game theory and history, and looking…

What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2013 | 0 Comments

The central banks of the West announced today that their temporary swap lines would be made permanent. Like QE itself, the meaning of this emergency…