All Epsilon Theory Content
Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.
An interesting question with a straightforward answer. Put simply, if a fund manager tells you they’re selling, ignore the reason they give and replace it with “Big founder wants liquidity.”
Welcome! A few reminders as usual: We begin pretty promptly at 2PM. If you don’t see the video by 2:01 PM ET, try reloading the…
Maya Angelou not only knew what made the caged bird sing, but also what makes Fiat News tick.
People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them FEEL.
You can make a lot of money collecting Golden Age comics. The Silver Age, though? Meh. The story arcs and narratives are a joke. The art is so-so at best. The publishers are just squeezing the installed base, and the creators are just mailing it in. They’re old, but so what?
Same with the Silver Age of Central Bankers. It’s hard to make money, particularly in Emerging Markets, when it’s every man for himself among DM central banks.
Today’s Zeitgeist is all about trust in the trustless (ugh), hope springing eternal in Value Added, benchmarking the unbenchmarkable, Fiat News through bad Googling, and why we can’t shake fat fingers.
It’s the most valuable lesson I’ve got for any smart, young Coyote embarking on a career in the Mob or in Wall Street: never ask for a cut on an existential trade idea.
Our Thing isn’t about the money. IT’S. ABOUT. THE. MONEY.
Except when it’s not.
The weekend Zeitgeist, in which we are reminded that we need Silicon Valley to tell us what art is, that we need Zucker and Murdoch to tell us what news is, and opposing politicians to tell us what we should be mad about.
ET contributor Demonetized takes a fresh look at the fable of the Ants and the Grasshopper. Or rather, it’s an Epsilon Theory look, with Clear Eyes and a Full Heart. Metastability, too.
Wells Fargo and Mastercard CEOs say blockchain has yet to live up to the hype, Bolsonaro has a post-election let-down in Brazil, you can increase profit margins by squeezing your suppliers, and other tales from Captain Obvious in today’s Zeitgeist.
As a recovering short seller, I have the same reaction to the activist news on Bed Bath and Beyond as I do to video of Lawrence Taylor breaking Joe Theisman’s leg … I just can’t watch. Gotta turn away.
Come to think of it, this is kinda my reaction to all financial and political news these days.
We take a break from Fiat News to talk about the much simpler, much more straightforward ways that we are told how to think.
They’re not new, but in the Widening Gyre of our current political Zeitgeist, they are becoming the main attraction.
Yield curve alert! We have a BLARING SIREN that is FLASHING …
They’re coming to get you, Barbara!
We can be better investors. Not by playing the cards we’re dealt any harder. But by playing the other players at the table a lot smarter.
It’s a new technology applied to an old investment strategy. It’s a new way to think about money flows and investor behaviors.
The weekend Zeitgeist, in which the Gray Lady’s news coverage gets even grayer, everybody loves Beto, Rusty discovers a new Hall of Fame about which he has opinions, and abstracted thinking in cheese research.
Helicopter parenting produces kids whose ability to evaluate and take risks has been crippled. If we’re not careful, helicopter parenting from policy-makers will do the same to us as investors.
In which we are told that China is not the AI-powered dystopia we we were looking for, we encounter the “seen to” Fiat News tell in the wild, and we take a longer look at something over the better part of…an evening?
All the Fiat News that’s fit to scrutinize.
“It’s a trap!” This and other evergreen memes of Fiat News, yours for the plucking in today’s Zeitgeist.
It’s not impossible for market volatility to spike massively through some deflationary shock to the financial system like a global recession or a China-driven credit crisis or an Italy-driven euro crisis. What’s impossible is TO GET PAID for taking out an insurance policy against volatility spikes from these deflationary shocks.
One of the Missionary’s most powerful tools is admiring the unsolvable problem – finding new ways of describing what’s wrong without an honest effort to actually fix it.
With apologies, add this to the list of things that you will now see everywhere.
Jay Powell channels Arthur Burns, a Fed model for congressional budget debates, and a smorgasbord of Boeing bagholder quotes. All in a day’s work for the Zeitgeist!
In this Office Hours, Ben and Rusty dig into the transition of capital markets into political utilities – this time with a special focus on private markets.